Wednesday, October 14, 2026

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7B

Yet Another Value Podcast Oct 14 87 clicks

Oct 13 CARG $2.7B

CarGurus ($CARG): The Auto Trader of America, Priced Like a Used Car

Substack von Philipp 10 clicks

Oct 12 LYFT $6.5B

The Final Phase of This Bull Market Will Be Massive | Charles Lemonides

The Monetary Matters Network 8 clicks

From X

@HedgeyeRetail Apr 3

Brian McGough on X

Seriously considering going dark on $RH from a coverage perspective -- so I can buy it in my PA. The risk/reward here is unlike anything I've seen...

@gatorcapital Mar 6

Derek Pilecki on X

BTW, his stock trades for 10x, posts an ROE of 17% while running with excess capital, and is part of a banking oligopoly in Puerto Rico. $OFG

@gatorcapital Mar 6

Derek Pilecki on X

At the RBC FIG Conference this week, a bank CEO referred to himself as "below average". His stock has compounded above 20% since 2017. I know he was being self-deprecating and trying to make the point that his employees were "above average", but it was still shocking to hear. A lot of CEOs with much worse stock performance think very highly of themselves. $OFG

@catechwilliams Feb 28 3 clicks

catechwilliams on X

$FTDR Vol declining (existing home sales=driver). Pricing lagging inflation, massively over-earning. Problematic given 25% churn w aggressive new entrants. Dubious company overall. Investor day yesterday was comical, compared themselves to $NFLX. Earnings misses coming.

@catechwilliams Feb 11

catechwilliams on X

$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.

@catechwilliams Feb 5

catechwilliams on X

$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.

@CapitalVoss Jan 29 1 click

Voss Capital on X

The industrial logic for the $UNF and $CTAS merger captured in one picture. Both have been going to the Chipotle (or same strip center) near our office in Houston on the same days at the same time (the store was closed at the time this pic was taken). https://t.co/zxTIFVgn1s

@AlphaVulture Dec 20

Alpha Vulture on X

Tough end of the year in merger arb land $BATL, $RVNC, $X, $ACI, $CPRI

Bristlemoon September 2026 Quarterly Letter

Bristlemoon Global Fund lost 8.4% in the September quarter and added shorts in Campbell’s, REA Group, MasterBrand and Polaris amid narrow…

CPB $6B

Bristlemoon Capital Oct 12 9 clicks

LQDA: finer powder, higher doses

Liquidia’s Yutrepia sales reached $170.4 million in Q2 2026, while a patent ruling threatens its PH-ILD label but leaves PAH sales and a…

LQDA $3.1B

Trade Ideas Flow Oct 12 4 clicks

Jumping On The Robotics Train: Initiating Buy On Cognex

Cognex expects 15% revenue growth this year as its RealSense acquisition expands machine-vision exposure to robotic perception, logistics,…

CGNX $9.6B

Fountainhead Oct 12 2 clicks

Global-e: The Invisible Engine Behind the Brands You Buy From Directly Online! $GLBE

Global-e provides cross-border merchant-of-record, payments, tax and fulfillment services to more than 1,500 brands, including Shopify…

GLBE $6.4B

Substack von Philipp Oct 12 6 clicks

Penguin Solutions: Explosive AI Growth At A Surprisingly Low Valuation

Penguin Solutions grew FY2026 revenue 26% as AI data-center and memory demand expanded, while negative free cash flow and cyclical memory…

PENG $3.5B

Investor Overview Oct 12 5 clicks

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Hong Kong stocks Value Stocks late in a Bull Market, and Consolidating a Big Short

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac common shareholders face at least 90% dilution if Treasury converts its growing senior preferred stakes into…

FNMA $4.2B

Cassandra Unchained Oct 11 5 clicks

Deep Dive: Inter & Co

Inter & Co, Brazil’s second-largest neobank, grew over 20% with controlled delinquencies and 15% book-value compounding while trading at…

INTR $3B

Capitalist Letters Oct 11 7 clicks

Glaukos: Steep Premium For New Therapies And Growth

Glaukos is expanding from glaucoma devices into sustained drug delivery and corneal cross-linking, but GKOS's premium valuation leaves…

GKOS $9.7B

Myriam Alvarez Oct 11 4 clicks

You Understand Now, Why You Came This Way

Brazil’s October 25 runoff puts Bolsonaro’s likely victory at the center of a bullish regional-stock case; Golar LNG (GLNG) also reports…

GLNG $4.7B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Oct 9 3 clicks

Research & Analysis: Legence Corp. (NASDAQ: LGN)

Legence trades at 10.4x EV/aEBITDA with a $5.7 billion backlog, as AI data center installations drive growth and expand its maintenance…

LGN $4.8B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 9 3 clicks

PTRN · short

Pattern Group INC

Pattern Group is a fragile consumer business targeted on the short side.

PTRN $3.1B

Value Investors Club Jul 15 3 clicks

Wix: The Market Sees The Threat, Not The Opportunity

Wix’s Base44 vibe-coding tool reached $100 million ARR in a year as AI disruption fears obscure expanding services, customer lock-in and…

WIX $3B

Fernanda Galvez Jalil Oct 11 1 click

Cava Group: Buying The (Feta) Dip? (Ticker: CAVA)

Cava’s $3 million AUVs, 25.1% restaurant margins and sector-leading same-store sales support its expansion case as awareness rose from 40%…

CAVA $6.4B

Emerging Moats Research Oct 9 6 clicks

This Week in Special Situations: Constellation Brands, GEO Group, Under Armour, CITIC Resources

Special-situations survey profiles 26 activist, capital-return, M&A and strategic-alternative catalysts, led by buybacks at Under Armour,…

GEO $4.1BUAA $2.1B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 8 2 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #10: 8 Oct 2026

US aluminium tariffs, European glass automation and Foraco’s constrained drilling fleet create multi-year pricing tailwinds, with Century…

CENX $3.4B

Trade Ideas Flow Oct 8 2 clicks

The Story Millrose Told Wall Street About Lennar Purchases Doesn’t Match The Evidence

Millrose told Goldman its Lennar purchases had rent-to-own tenants lined up, but most analyzed homes were advertised for rent and showed…

MRP $3.7B

Hunterbrook Oct 8 4 clicks

Golar LNG q2’26 Operational Update

Golar LNG ordered a $2.45 billion fourth FLNG vessel, targeting 3.5MTPA of capacity and $400 million in annual EBITDA under a 20-year…

GLNG $4.7B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 8

Maase: The Math And The Valuation Don't Add Up To Me

Maase, a $5B AI infrastructure company with sub-$50M annualized revenue and persistent losses, faces governance concerns over super-voting…

MAAS $5.4B

Wolf Report Oct 8 1 click

I Finally Proved That the Market Is Not Efficient

Bread Financial’s 10-year Signet card deal transfers an estimated $526.5 million in NPV to Signet and $1 billion in payments, while BFH…

BFH $3.8BSIG $4.1B

Shallow Dives Oct 7 5 clicks

💥New Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Filing - And Go Concepts, LLC (Salad and Go)💥

Salad and Go filed Chapter 11 after its Texas and Oklahoma expansion failed, seeking to sell 65 leases to Dutch Bros for $105 million as 7…

BROS $5.2B

PETITION Oct 7 3 clicks

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Brian McGough on X

Derek Pilecki on X

Derek Pilecki on X

catechwilliams on X

catechwilliams on X

catechwilliams on X

Voss Capital on X

Alpha Vulture on X

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