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Monday, October 12, 2026

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H&R REIT, an opportunity in a corrupt process

H&R REIT's proposed GO Residential transaction faces investor opposition over rejected $12.50 cash bids, insider benefits and tax allocation, with critics seeking to block the deal.

GONYF $499M
Nugget Capital Partner's Substack 2 clicks

From X

@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

$EVLV i'm getting something like -.2/sh of real earnigns right now, and something in that ball park for next year as a base case. The downside is significant PT <3/sh if they are unable to grow into their margins, or face continuous pressure from opengate. If they succeed (let's say 25% growth and margin improvement), i also see limited upside: Here's how i get my Earnings number: Adj. EBITDA: +$15M Stock comp: -$23M Fleet wear (D&A + retired units): -$29M Interest, growth capex, net one-offs: -$3M earnings of about -$40M, or -$0.20/sh Current management missed 3 of 4 gross margin guides, and the promised shift toward subscription reversed twice. Recent trends: Revenue +34%, but ARR only +20% (was 34% five quarters ago). Backlog (RPO) up only mid-teens Gross margin 58% → 50% in two years New ARR per unit added: ~$17K in 2024 → ~$10K now Here's how i get limited upside in the bull case: revenue grow 25% a year to about $557M in 2031 adj. EBITDA margin rises from 8.5% to 25% by 2031, then 27% by terminal year 2040 or so. SBC falls to 5–7% of revenue and fleet wear to 10–12%; Assuming a 9% required return, i am getting around 4.5/sh which is the current stock price. Are they subscale? Don't they have like 9k units deployed? That's subscale? What exactly are the "scale" advantages for this type of company? How good is their product vs opengate as a total cost of ownership? doesn't look good for evolv. Says Evolv is 5x the price over 4 years but little differentiation in terms of throughput and accuracy. Why would anyone buy evolv. The school contracts covered by the FTC settlement date from April 2022 through June 2023, and on 4-year terms they renew in 2026–27. We will just see what happens thousands of units are up for renewal or if there is some switching that happens.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Ever since I started following $CCLD I thought it was a great LBO candidate. This thing belongs in a PE portfolio and whoever LBOs will do very well, I would love to participate. $85m market cap, around $120m EV roughly. Can support a lot of leverage due to subscription/reoccurring cash flows. It is cheap in absolute (circa 3x FCF). It is at 1/4 the average multiple arguably worse peers have transacted at (maybe even less by now). Long runway for continued acquisition playbook (management said constantly evaluating 2k opportunities). Acquisition playbook targets distressed RCM companies, cuts costs due to CCLD offshore cheap labor and cross and upsells to existing sticky customers, $CCLD offers a broad suite of products and are implementing adn devloping AI products. Acquisitions earn 20-40% in 6 months. Prices paid are .5-1x Revenues way towards the lower end. Risk: 2026 guidance requires aggresive H2 and cybersecurity incident If anyone is interested in a LBO or pushing for a sale, please reach out, I have done and will do extensive diligence.

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Namib Minerals: Research Note

Namib Minerals posted H1 adjusted EBITDA of $19.0 million, up 76%, as higher gold prices offset lower production.

NAMM $55M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks

What I’ve Been Up To

Cogent Communications and AI data-center bottlenecks feature in a newsletter update on recruiting, financial media and conference takeaways.

CCOI $428M
Stock Thoughts 3 clicks
AIRS · long

Airsculpt Technolo INC

AirSculpt (AIRS) operates roughly 30 centers offering premium self-pay body contouring, fat removal, fat transfer and skin-tightening…

AIRS $103M
Value Investors Club

A Mexican Blue Chip Bargain

Grupo Herdez, a MXN 15.2 billion Mexican food company, pairs dominant grocery brands with McCormick, Barilla and Hormel joint ventures.

GUZOF $954M
Exploring with Alluvial Capital

Checking Out Music Royalties

Mills Music Trust's 8.5% yield faces declining distributions as songs enter the public domain, while Royalty Exchange lists more than 700…

MMTRS
Exploring with Alluvial Capital

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