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Saturday, October 10, 2026

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@StableBread 2 clicks

Fajasy on X

Newbury Street II $NTWO, the SPAC taking robot-safety maker FORT Robotics public, closed at $10.81 on October 9, below the cash in its trust. The final proxy for its October 28, 2026 extension vote, filed the same day, shows $186.9M in the trust as of October 7, or $10.833/share. The vote would push Newbury's deadline for closing the deal from November 4 to February 4, 2027, and holders who want to cash out at $10.833 have until 5pm EST on October 26 to submit their shares. The proxy also says the S-4 (the merger filing) is still "to be filed," 52 days after FORT CEO Samuel Reeves told employees to expect it "in the coming weeks." So at $10.81, the market values the FORT deal at zero, and holders who skip this redemption can still cash out at the merger vote, once they've seen the S-4.
@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

Neither of the two commercial prospects BWX Technologies $BWXT has named for its BANR microreactor is a data center. 1) Prodigy Clean Energy, a Montreal-based developer of factory-built nuclear plants: Two BANRs for a transportable pilot plant in Belledune, New Brunswick, built mainly at $BWXT’s Ontario plants and running in the early 2030s. New Brunswick’s government signed a letter of intent (LOI) to buy the power. $BWXT and Prodigy are still negotiating a definitive agreement, and the release provides no dollar value. 2) Tata Chemicals Soda Ash: A Wyoming soda ash producer that signed an LOI to explore deploying up to eight BANRs. $BWXT also markets BANR to data centers. However, I found no data center contract, customer, LOI, or revenue in any $BWXT press release from January 2025 through October 2026, in the FY2025 10-K, or in the 2026 10-Qs. $BWXT’s own mentions stop at a product page saying BANR can provide “clean electricity for municipalities, data centers and campuses,” and slides 11 and 25 from its Investor Day on September 29, 2026, which list “AI/data center demand” as a driver of nuclear demand in general. I didn’t hear the phrase “data center” mentioned once during Investor Day, and slide 49 lists data centers in the third phase of $BWXT’s microreactor plan. CEO Rex Geveden said at Investor Day that “the incremental demand from AI right now is 60 GW” and “winning at AI means winning at power, and winning at power probably means having a nuclear solution.” If he’s right, $BWXT benefits by supplying components, fuel, and services to more reactors, not by selling microreactors to data centers. Advanced Reactor Design and Engineering, the product line that includes Project Pele (its prototype microreactor for the Pentagon) and $BWXT’s other microreactor programs, brought in $203.8M in 2024 and $147.1M in 2025, then $52.6M in H1 2026, down from $69.8M a year earlier. At 3.0% of $BWXT’s $1,761.8M of H1 2026 revenue, microreactors are still a small, early business.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$TLF: Tandy Leather Factory (TLF) is the dominant specialty retailer and wholesaler of leather, tools, hardware, dyes, and DIY kits for leathercraft, with ~101 stores plus e-commerce serving a niche hobbyist and artisan base; its narrow moat stems from a 100+ year brand, unmatched physical store network that doubles as hands-on community and education hubs (classes, expert staff, ability to feel product quality), and a deep proprietary assortment of kits/tools that general craft chains cannot match, supporting high gross margins (recently expanding toward 65%) and modest customer stickiness. At ~$2.55/share it has a market cap of ~$21M and enterprise value of ~$43M (with ~$28M debt/leases vs. ~$6.4M cash); it trades at a steep discount to tangible book value of $47M ($5.73/share, P/B ~0.45x) and working capital of ~$35M, both well above the market cap, implying liquidation value (even after conservative discounts on inventory) exceeds the equity value and provides a meaningful margin of safety. Capital allocation has featured large special dividends (including ~$6.1M or $0.75/share in early 2026, partly from prior asset sales) with an unused $5M buyback authorization, while recent investments in a new headquarters/flagship and systems pressured cash. Future growth is modest, driven by pricing power, e-commerce/nontraditional channels, and expense discipline in a flat-to-declining niche rather than volume expansion. LTM Owner’s Earnings (FCF) are negative at roughly -$2.3M due to operating outflows and elevated CapEx; next-12-month figures should improve toward breakeven or modestly positive as one-time spending normalizes and margins hold. Likely catalysts include sustained operating profitability and positive free cash generation (already evident in recent quarterly margin gains and small profits), potential further capital returns if cash rebuilds, and deep-value attention given the low float and discount to book; risks center on consumer discretionary sensitivity, rising occupancy costs, competition, and inventory management.
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$CNRD: M cap $145m, net cash $28m. $28.83 stock. One of the few specialized ship makers left. Q3 2025 footnotes whow change in severance comp indicating a sale and foudning family estate planning. Sale at 8x 2025 EBITDA yields $54-$55 share price. Won a partnership with Samsung recently. Contract won May 13th is $25m min over next 3 years. Backlog $293m. $3.6 a share in FCF in Q2 2026 alone (stock at $28.83). Founding family involved. Current administration likley to spend more $ on shipbuilding (Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Restores America’s Maritime Dominance – The White House). (Navy shipbuilding stands to get $27 billion in funding in 2026 - Defense One).

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TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/09/2026)

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The Mikro Kap 3 clicks

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Irrational Analysis

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