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Saturday, October 10, 2026

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@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲. It’s funny: most people think the proliferation of information has made finding dislocations harder. I’d argue the opposite. When information was scarce, speed was the edge. Today the problem is information overload. Social media, AI, headlines, experts, hot takes. Just like different news organizations (CNN, Fox, MSNOW) can frame the same political candidate through completely different lenses, markets create narratives that can overwhelm the underlying facts. Every trade is a spread between perception and truth. Merger arb just makes that spread explicit because you have a relatively fixed endpoint (the deal consideration). Regular-way equities are harder because “truth” is a moving target. But you don’t need to know whether $TLN is worth $350, $370 or $390 to recognize when Josh Shapiro and data-center pushback have distorted perception enough to send it to $270. You don’t need to perfectly value every business line of $OWL to recognize when a Bloomberg story has caused the market to paint the entire business with the private-credit apocalypse brush. And it works both ways: $GLND wasn’t suddenly a critical-minerals bonanza because of a Trump headline. Sometimes the narrative creates the overvaluation. Having the best model or talking to the most experts helps you estimate truth. But truth without an understanding of perception isn’t a trade. You can be a little wrong on intrinsic value and still make a lot of money if you correctly identify that the market’s narrative has overshot reality. The edge today isn’t knowing whether something is worth exactly $37 or $39. It’s understanding why it’s trading at $27 in the first place, whether that perception is wrong, and what makes the gap close…
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The restart study due in the first half of October at Levack, the flagship mine of Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU), leaves out a zone where a hole reported in June cut 29.7% copper equivalent over 3.4 meters. Magna found the zone itself. In July 2025, a hole drilled into the footwall below Levack’s No. 3 orebody hit nickel-rich veins. Magna calls the area R2, short for “Rob’s 2,” and says R2 resembles the top of the Morrison deposit, where the nickel-rich veins of Rob’s Zone gave way to copper- and precious metal-rich veins at depth. As of June, R2 spanned ~300 meters vertically and ~150 meters north-south, and all 14 holes Magna had reported hit metal-bearing rock. The June hole’s 3.4 meters included 57.0% copper equivalent (CuEq, which converts every metal into copper at set prices) and 44.3 grams per tonne (g/t) of gold over 1.5 meters. In September, another hole extended R2 ~30 meters toward the No. 3 orebody. The veins are narrow. Magna reports lengths along each drill hole and estimates the veins’ true widths at 30-80% of those lengths, so the June hole’s 3.4 meters could be a vein 1.0-2.7 meters wide (30% × 3.4 and 80% × 3.4). In August, Magna finished a 2950 Level drift (a horizontal tunnel) that stops ~300 meters short of R2. CEO Jason Jessup said on September 24 that Magna plans to extend the drift to R2 “sometime in Q4.” From there, Jessup says Magna could start mining along the veins “as early as Q1 of 2027” and ship the ore to Vale $VALE, ahead of a resource estimate “potentially by the end of 2027.” Jessup says R2 can’t go into the restart study, a preliminary economic assessment (PEA), because it isn’t in a resource estimate yet. Once it’s added, he expects R2 ore to “displace some material in the PEA,” meaning replace some of the plan’s lower-grade tons, since it’s “much much higher margin.” Even after mining 1-2 tons of waste rock with every ton of vein (100-200% dilution), Jessup expects R2 ore to grade “10 to 15% copper equivalent,” 3-4.5x the 3.3-3.4% at McCreedy West, Magna’s producing mine (10% / 3.4% and 15% / 3.3%). Jessup also says “there are no streams or royalties on the precious metals” at R2. Franco-Nevada $FNV, the royalty and streaming company, holds a precious metals stream on two areas of Levack, but the technical report doesn’t publish their boundaries, so for now, investors only have Jessup’s word that R2 sits outside the stream.
@DeepSailCapital

Deep Sail Capital on X

Good article about how $CRDO is bringing together multiple layers of connectivity: “The operational angle is equally important. At 1.6T, the issue is not simply moving twice the data of an 800G port. Large AI fabrics can contain enormous numbers of optical links, making intermittent faults and link flaps increasingly consequential to cluster availability and troubleshooting. Credo is therefore positioning telemetry and diagnostics as part of the optical link architecture itself rather than treating observability as a separate management layer.” Having a full suite of connectivity options will give them a big advantage in 1.6T. https://t.co/K7TtgjECoa
@DeepSailCapital

Deep Sail Capital on X

Good article about how $CRDO is being together the multiple layers of connectivity: “The operational angle is equally important. At 1.6T, the issue is not simply moving twice the data of an 800G port. Large AI fabrics can contain enormous numbers of optical links, making intermittent faults and link flaps increasingly consequential to cluster availability and troubleshooting. Credo is therefore positioning telemetry and diagnostics as part of the optical link architecture itself rather than treating observability as a separate management layer.” Having a full suite of connectivity options will give them a big advantage in 1.6T. https://t.co/K7TtgjFadI
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

$CHRW shareholders not buying. Incredible amount of uncertainty in brokerage and how that will look in a few years from litigation impacts on costs (insurance and liability) and AI on margins/take rates. It is a phenomenal deal for $QXO shareholders as they get to exit at cyclical high pricing into incredible uncertainty. (why CHRW down) Also in your multiple assessment above, you need to consider a whole bunch more factors than putting a multiple on a several year out synergy target number (1 chew trading under 20x forward 27' numbers), Ch share count will increase 16%+ (for accretion/dilution scenerios), debt costs will significantly increase (that is stripped out of there) as well as all the severance and integration costs they will incur in the next few years. This deal is quite risky in my opinion. I Also as someone in your shoes knows covering the industry for years, the history of Brokerage acquisitions paying off is quite poor (just see QXO's Coyote acquisition a few years ago)
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The CEO of Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) owns 25.4% of the shares, and a 12% holder keeps buying more. Investing in Nubeva largely means trusting Randy Chou. He’s been CEO since the 2018 listing and sits on the board. Per the company’s site, he built SSL (web encryption) security at Alteon WebSystems, which Nortel bought for $7.8B in 2000. He then joined the founding team at Aruba Networks, a Wi-Fi company started in 2002 that HP $HPQ bought for $3.0B in 2015. In 2008, he co-founded Panzura, a cloud storage company that private equity firm Profile Capital Management bought in May 2020 for $225M, per Nubeva’s July 2023 investor deck. Granted, Panzura replaced him as CEO with Patrick Harr in May 2016, a month after Nubeva was incorporated, and the sale came four years later under Harr. Regardless, every company Chou helped build before Nubeva ended in a sale, and a partnership or sale is Nubeva’s own fallback if AI doesn’t fix its costs. Canadian insiders report their trades on SEDI, and Nubeva’s file since January 2024 has one active buyer. Clayton Davis, an Edmonton-based individual investor, crossed 10% on September 8, 2025 with 7,038,268 shares (10.03%), per the Form 62-103F1 he filed a year later, on September 10, 2026 (the disclosure Canada requires from anyone who crosses 10%). He then made 96 open-market purchases on 46 trading days through September 4, 2026, buying 1,755,797 shares for ~CAD$306K at CAD$0.09-0.26. Net of four small sales totaling 134,500 shares, he now holds 8,659,565 shares (12.34%). Davis’s latest purchase, on September 4, came a week after Nubeva filed its FY2026 results. In other words, he kept buying after seeing the full-year numbers. Chou hasn’t bought or sold in the open market over the same period, and Nubeva’s annual meeting filings list the same 17,797,741 shares for him in 2024, 2025, and 2026. In April 2024, Chou moved 3,630,000 of those shares into a donor-advised fund he still controls, and in a February 26, 2026 interview on Nubeva’s YouTube channel, he said he’d have to pre-announce any sale by the fund.

Investor Letters

All letters

Boyz in the Hood

Robinhood’s AI agents, 24/7 equity trading and 10:1 crypto perpetual futures encourage higher retail trading velocity, leverage and…

HOOD $98B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate”

Vertiv Holdings Co. (VRT)

Vertiv's 33% stock decline followed a 2026 forecast increase, despite a $15 billion backlog and rising AI data-center demand for power and…

VRT $94B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets

Research Roundup Vol. LV

OpenAI’s enterprise privacy push and Synopsys’s Factory 2 royalty model anchor a technology roundup, alongside oil above $100 and Bitcoin’s…

SNPS $97B
Monte Independent Investment Research
VEEV · long

Veeva Systems INC

Veeva Systems is a vertical software company valued as if its best growth years are behind it.

VEEV $46B
Value Investors Club

New Position (ONON): Game is On

On Holding (ONON) is gaining sportswear share, expanding store space and launching soccer with Kylian Mbappé as investors debate U.S.

ONON $11B
Aurelion Research 3 clicks

Deep Dive: Intuit ($INTU)

Intuit’s $21.4 billion software franchise faces AI-driven pricing pressure in tax and accounting, even as QuickBooks and TurboTax retain…

INTU $79B
Rebound Capital 4 clicks

Canterra Minerals: Research Note

Canterra Minerals increased Lundberg indicated tonnage 55% to 26.1Mt, with 226.2Kt of contained copper equivalent, supporting a Buchans…

EQX $13B
Atrium Research - Equity Research

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