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Friday, October 9, 2026

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You Understand Now, Why You Came This Way

Brazil’s October 25 runoff puts Bolsonaro’s likely victory at the center of a bullish regional-stock case; Golar LNG (GLNG) also reports fresh news.

GLNG $4.7B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

From X

@Fierce__beast 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

$COUR I went to the website of vectorlearn (https://t.co/T8MyEtq5uW) and here is what it says: So they will collaborate closely with COUR and Udemy to create personalized learning with a 100m investment based on a valuation of 300m but who decided it was worth 300m? Also, is this kind of just like investing in R&D since they are collaboratng? This is a nice way for $COUR to not show increased expenses, and also not to show "capex" or "acquistion costs". If had factored this in as an additional expense then their earnings are even lower than i thought
@Fierce__beast 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

i am short $cour -- in the worst case it feels like they should trade at a small discount to their net cash. in the best case, the stock probably does not really do much. interesting even as a case study about large net cash position with a melting ice cube operating business, massive SBC, a big merger, a very low "p/e" the p/e is a bit of an illusion with SBC and a purchase accounting benefit they add back to show good "adj ebitda" margins. by my estimate the business is on track to make -.15/sh of real earnings. if this is true, i also estimate they need to find 45-60m of cost savings to simply break even. this is while NRR for enterprise is consistently collapsing and consumer subscriptions are generating revenues at something like 25% the rate at which they are growing. so maybe they get their deal synergies and get to +.15/sh but how long does that take and it still seems like something has been going wrong with their core business for a while now. linkedin certifications seem pretty solid. for google certifications i think you can just go direct. also the consumer business seems focused on industry certifications, which it seems the big platforms like google is providing at better terms than coursera but have historically partnered with coursera. interesting tug of war there
@RagingVentures

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Some thoughts of mine on Archegos from May 2021 (below). Was Leopold using swaps? The value of Situational’s reported Q1 13F holdings pale in comparison to some of the exposure numbers being mentioned today, even adjusting for appreciation. I would observe that once Archegos blew up at the end of March 2021, many previously impossible shorts (names like $TDOC and $TRUP come to mind) became much easier to navigate and ultimately collapsed… ****** PEELING BACK THE ARCHEGOS ONION The implosion of Archegos is a very important market development and I hope regulators peel back the onion to truly understand what occurred. Archegos owned massive swap positions in companies like ViacomCBS (VIAC), Discovery Communications (DISCA), Tencent Music (TME), and GSX Techedu (GSX), in some cases controlling 20-50% of their tradeable float. Swap ISDA agreements typically limit aggregate ownership in a single company to 4-9%. Archegos appears to have aggressively violated these limits and/or the prime brokers looked the other way, enabling the firm to corner numerous large stocks in the U.S. equity markets. Notably, Archegos owned perhaps 50% of the float of a reputed fraud, GSX. How long has Archegos’ Bill Hwang been cornering stocks like this? He is rumored to have turned $200 mm into $5 b over the past six years (and may have briefly tripled that amount to $15 b during early 2021). What other short squeezes did he orchestrate in recent years? Are other funds using similar strategies as Archegos, and were there wolf packs of funds that Archegos was communicating with on these squeezes? My hunch is that Hwang and his ilk have been cornering stocks for years, with the typical exit plan being the sale of his positions to passive indexes who are perversely designed to buy more of a stock the higher the price goes. This underscores a major issue with passive investing. Archegos’ machinations also created tremendous pain for short selling hedge funds, which provide a valuable ballast for the entire stock market. Furthermore, if you peel back the onion enough, I think you will find an Archegos (or a similar fund) connection to Tesla (TSLA), which was squeezed multiple times until it was added to the S&P 500. Is it possible that Elon Musk, who regularly attacked the shorts, and who in 2018 was making unusual pre-market trades in his own stock at prices well above the prevailing market price, was somehow connected to this action?

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Golar LNG q2’26 Operational Update

Golar LNG ordered a $2.45 billion fourth FLNG vessel, targeting 3.5MTPA of capacity and $400 million in annual EBITDA under a 20-year…

GLNG $4.7B
Monte Independent Investment Research

What I’ve Been Up To

Cogent Communications and AI data-center bottlenecks feature in a newsletter update on recruiting, financial media and conference takeaways.

CCOI $430M
Stock Thoughts 3 clicks
POST · long

Post Holdings INC

Post Holdings remains a large position after the stock's recent decline.

POST $3.4B
Value Investors Club

Solid Power Still Has Promise

Solid Power reported a $0.11 Q2 loss and $419.3 million of cash, with its electrolyte pilot line and BMW and SK On validation central to…

SLDP $518M
Quad 7 Capital 2 clicks

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