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Thursday, October 8, 2026

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Boyz in the Hood

Robinhood’s AI agents, 24/7 equity trading and 10:1 crypto perpetual futures encourage higher retail trading velocity, leverage and momentum.

HOOD $98B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate”

From X

@orrdavid 1 click

David Orr on X

I bought the dip in the RV parts company $PATK in 2022. Back then everyone was sure we'd have a recession even though we had super negative real rates. Today $PATK is once again down 50%+, a spot I usually contemplate buying. However, today nobody is talking about a recession (except the perma doomers who don't count) and we have super positive real rates. The housing market is also weak, vs very strong back then. IE Home owners (a big group) suddenly had a lot more cash than they had a few years prior. That setup is gone today, too. I don't think I'll buy $PATK this time. It'll be the first time since I started that I pass on the opportunity. The whole setup here is very concerning for the general market, something I try not to think about too much.
@convequity 2 clicks

Convequity on X

More $NVDA chips could end up going to SpaceX and other buyers that can borrow at investment-grade rates, leaving neoclouds with fewer chips than they need. SpaceX's planned $40bn chip borrowing shows why. The deal: $SPCX is in early talks for about $10bn of bank loans and $30bn of investment-grade debt, led by Apollo, with Pimco also in talks. It would close in 2027, and the talks could still fall apart. The comparison: in December, Apollo lent about $3.5bn to fund xAI's Colossus 2 chips through a separate company set up just for that deal. The interest rate was about 10% a year. xAI is now part of SpaceX. Investment-grade debt usually costs much less. US investment-grade corporate bonds yield around 6% on average today. The rate on the new $30bn has not been reported, so we don't know the exact saving yet. Why it could be cheaper: lenders would be relying on SpaceX's launch and Starlink businesses to repay, not only on the chips. That is the real financial payoff of putting xAI inside SpaceX. Most GPU buyers can't borrow like that. $CRWV is rated junk (Moody's Ba3, Fitch BB-) and pays 9.25% on its 2030 bonds. Standalone AI labs have no public credit ratings that we could find. Not every neocloud pays up. $NBIS has a GPU loan at a floating benchmark rate plus 2.5%, against CoreWeave's plus 5.5%. Our view: the debate on X is whether this proves AI demand or shows too much leverage. We think the bigger point is cost of capital. When chips are scarce, the buyer that borrows most cheaply can pay for the most of them, and neoclouds paying junk-level rates get squeezed out.

Investor Letters

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Golar LNG q2’26 Operational Update

Golar LNG ordered a $2.45 billion fourth FLNG vessel, targeting 3.5MTPA of capacity and $400 million in annual EBITDA under a 20-year…

GLNG $4.9B
Monte Independent Investment Research

Top Rebound Stocks for Oct’26

Intuitive Surgical, down 32% from its January 2025 peak, faces slower US procedure growth and new robotic-surgery rivals despite $10.1…

ISRG $147B
Rebound Capital 1 click

Vertiv Holdings Co. (VRT)

Vertiv's 33% stock decline followed a 2026 forecast increase, despite a $15 billion backlog and rising AI data-center demand for power and…

VRT $94B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets
POST · long

Post Holdings INC

Post Holdings remains a large position after the stock's recent decline.

POST $3.3B
Value Investors Club

Research Roundup Vol. LV

OpenAI’s enterprise privacy push and Synopsys’s Factory 2 royalty model anchor a technology roundup, alongside oil above $100 and Bitcoin’s…

SNPS $97B
Monte Independent Investment Research

New Position (ONON): Game is On

On Holding (ONON) is gaining sportswear share, expanding store space and launching soccer with Kylian Mbappé as investors debate U.S.

ONON $11B
Aurelion Research 3 clicks

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