David Orr on X
I bought the dip in the RV parts company $PATK in 2022. Back then everyone was sure we'd have a recession even though we had super negative real rates. Today $PATK is once again down 50%+, a spot I usually contemplate buying. However, today nobody is talking about a recession (except the perma doomers who don't count) and we have super positive real rates. The housing market is also weak, vs very strong back then. IE Home owners (a big group) suddenly had a lot more cash than they had a few years prior. That setup is gone today, too. I don't think I'll buy $PATK this time. It'll be the first time since I started that I pass on the opportunity. The whole setup here is very concerning for the general market, something I try not to think about too much.
