Monday, October 5, 2026

Selling Cenovus: Up 78% in 10 Months

Cenovus Energy, up 78% in 10 months, is sold after agreeing to buy Athabasca Oil for $5.7 billion at a rich valuation.

CVE $58B

Bison Insights Oct 5 3 clicks

Oct 5 GFL $15B

The Final Countdown: An Update on GFL’s Sale

310 Value’s Newsletter

Oct 5 CRWV $43B

The Thin Margin of Safety in Selling Compute

MBI Deep Dives 10 clicks

From X

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 2 clicks

Deep Sail Capital on X

$MELI - Long term vision. https://t.co/EXtoxpWBg3

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

@AtlasShrug1 The JV with Sharon AI. Look into that. The PPA gives away 5% equity for the right for $NUAI to buy power from Vista.

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 3 clicks

Deep Sail Capital on X

Because they are bullshiting everyone. $NUAI https://t.co/FMGotqQuEr

@RagingVentures Oct 5 1 click

Raging Capital Ventures on X

@TarekAntaki I bought $CHTR stock today as well, Godspeed!

@SowingAlphaSeed Oct 5 1 click

Farmer on X

When is the correct time to short $ARKG? https://t.co/BcdIJj37oj

@ACapitalLP Oct 5

A Capital on X

𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲. It’s funny: most people think the proliferation of information has made finding dislocations harder. I’d argue the opposite. When information was scarce, speed was the edge. Today the problem is information overload. Social media, AI, headlines, experts, hot takes. Just like different news organizations (CNN, Fox, MSNOW) can frame the same political candidate through completely different lenses, markets create narratives that can overwhelm the underlying facts. Every trade is a spread between perception and truth. Merger arb just makes that spread explicit because you have a relatively fixed endpoint (the deal consideration). Regular-way equities are harder because “truth” is a moving target. But you don’t need to know whether $TLN is worth $350, $370 or $390 to recognize when Josh Shapiro and data-center pushback have distorted perception enough to send it to $270. You don’t need to perfectly value every business line of $OWL to recognize when a Bloomberg story has caused the market to paint the entire business with the private-credit apocalypse brush. And it works both ways: $GLND wasn’t suddenly a critical-minerals bonanza because of a Trump headline. Sometimes the narrative creates the overvaluation. Having the best model or talking to the most experts helps you estimate truth. But truth without an understanding of perception isn’t a trade. You can be a little wrong on intrinsic value and still make a lot of money if you correctly identify that the market’s narrative has overshot reality. The edge today isn’t knowing whether something is worth exactly $37 or $39. It’s understanding why it’s trading at $27 in the first place, whether that perception is wrong, and what makes the gap close…

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

@BitcoinAIGuy @optionology What assets does $NUAI actually own? A few million of real estate in Texas? Why is everyone so bullish on a company that was run / pivoted into “power shells” by a shady oil field guy like E Will Gray II?

@Fierce__beast Oct 5

Fierce_beast on X

@paulcerro $evlv seems like a pretty difficult biz

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Portfolio Update September 2026

Portfolio added Otis Worldwide in the mid-$60s, increased Pool, Copart and Floor & Decor, and sold Berkshire Hathaway.

OTIS $25BCPRT $25B

D Invests Oct 5 1 click

Ciena, A Former Telecom Bust, Is Now In The Early Stages Of A Bona Fide Mega Boom

Ciena’s optical networking equipment sales to stronger telecom customers underpin a 2027 long thesis, unlike its 2000-era boom.

CIEN $57B

Marc Gerstein Oct 5 2 clicks

Brazil could be the Q4 Macro Play – My stock ideas: $NU, $INTR, $PICS and maybe $STNE, $PAGS, $DLO and $MELI

Brazilian fintechs NU, INTR and PICS stand to benefit from a Bolsonaro-led runoff surprise that lowers fiscal risk premiums, rates and the…

NU $74BINTR $3.3B

Substack von Philipp Oct 5 3 clicks

Nyxoah: Label Expansion Set To Unlock A Monopoly In A Billion Dollar Market.

Nyxoah's Genio implant could reach CCC patients after an FDA label expansion, targeting 30% of the obstructive sleep apnea device market by…

NYXH $130M

Stephen Tobin Oct 5 3 clicks

NVIDIA SERIES | PART 1 : Jensen's Math and the Blackwell Gap: Dies, Chips, GPUs, and Revenue

Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU rollout created an AI compute oversupply after customers preordered millions of chips amid expected shortages.

NVDA $5.5T

Kakashii's Materials Oct 5 1 click

Alliance Resource Partners: A ~10% Yield Backed By Contracted Coal And Growing Royalties

Alliance Resource Partners has 2026 coal sales fully contracted and is expanding oil and gas royalties through AllDale, supporting its 9.8%…

ARLP $3.2B

Timur Mekhantev Oct 5 4 clicks

OMSE 2026-10-05

The Monday Morning Briefing: AI Drives Everything, Yet ROI on Massive Capex Remains Uncertain

Latticework’s briefing questions AI capex returns while featuring Close Brothers, Green Landscaping and OMS Energy Technologies.

OMSE $183M

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 5 2 clicks

40 Best Stock Pitches (28th-4th October) 🟢

Old Market Capital, a delisted holding company owning a rural fiber network, trades below comparable network valuations after institutional…

OMCC $27M

Capital Employed Oct 4 7 clicks

💥Leslies Term Lenders Toss a Life Preserver💥

Leslie’s and nine affiliates filed Chapter 11 in Texas on September 30, 2026, after 18 months of deteriorating performance.

LESL $1.6M

PETITION Oct 4 3 clicks

🤿New Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Filing - Leslie’s Inc.🤿

Leslie’s, the pool-supplies retailer, filed Chapter 11 after deteriorating operations, pricing and inventory missteps, and a burdensome…

LESL $1.6M

PETITION Oct 4 3 clicks

HGV · long

Hilton Grand Vacations

Hilton Grand Vacations faces an inflection point in profitability growth and free cash flow generation.

HGV $2.7B

Value Investors Club May 29

A Growing Business at a Discount to Its Own Cash

GrabAGun’s $68 million market capitalization sits below $98.5 million net cash, while PEW Logistics and ammunition subscriptions target…

PEW $54M

XIX Value Jun 28

$FOX dropped 25% buying $ROKU. Is the market wrong? | Simeon McMillan, Accrued Interest

Fox’s $22 billion Roku deal cut FOXA 25%, but Simeon McMillan argues Roku’s streaming-TV reach, advertising upside and synergies make the…

FOX $24B

Yet Another Value Blog Jun 28 1 click

Under The Hood, Wingstop Inc. ($WING)

Wingstop generates most of its $697 million revenue from franchise royalties across a 3,153-restaurant, 98%-franchised system while…

WING $3.2B

Bearhold Research Jun 28 2 clicks

Staying the course on H&R REIT

H&R REIT’s renewed talks with Blackstone cover some assets, following office and U.S.

BX $86B

Nugget Capital Partner's Substack Jun 27

Tidewater (TDW): a first-pass look

Tidewater’s $22,600 average day rate and $598 million FY2025 EBITDA rest on an aging OSV fleet, scant newbuilds and fleet acquisitions…

TDW $4.2B

Stock Thoughts Jun 27

The Biggest Bull Signal On Entravision

Entravision’s lost Meta relationship reset its business model, setting up a bullish case for the company’s recovery.

EVC $598M

The Value Road Jun 26 5 clicks

SAP: DCF Valuation

SAP’s DCF valuation sets a $260 base-case target versus a $155.09 ADR price, based on cloud migration, AI efficiencies and expanding EBIT…

SAP $245B

Hated Moats Jun 26

Duffy’s Last Dance

CME CEO Terry Duffy moves to executive chairman while suing the CFTC over Kalshi’s approval to list perpetual futures, defending CME’s…

CME $101B

Net Interest Jun 26

New Buy : Zoetis 🐕

Zoetis trades near 10x EV/EBIT after its selloff, with animal-health leadership, a $9.5 billion revenue base and companion-animal demand…

ZTS $30B

D Invests Jun 26

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