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Monday, October 5, 2026

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@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲. It’s funny: most people think the proliferation of information has made finding dislocations harder. I’d argue the opposite. When information was scarce, speed was the edge. Today the problem is information overload. Social media, AI, headlines, experts, hot takes. Just like different news organizations (CNN, Fox, MSNOW) can frame the same political candidate through completely different lenses, markets create narratives that can overwhelm the underlying facts. Every trade is a spread between perception and truth. Merger arb just makes that spread explicit because you have a relatively fixed endpoint (the deal consideration). Regular-way equities are harder because “truth” is a moving target. But you don’t need to know whether $TLN is worth $350, $370 or $390 to recognize when Josh Shapiro and data-center pushback have distorted perception enough to send it to $270. You don’t need to perfectly value every business line of $OWL to recognize when a Bloomberg story has caused the market to paint the entire business with the private-credit apocalypse brush. And it works both ways: $GLND wasn’t suddenly a critical-minerals bonanza because of a Trump headline. Sometimes the narrative creates the overvaluation. Having the best model or talking to the most experts helps you estimate truth. But truth without an understanding of perception isn’t a trade. You can be a little wrong on intrinsic value and still make a lot of money if you correctly identify that the market’s narrative has overshot reality. The edge today isn’t knowing whether something is worth exactly $37 or $39. It’s understanding why it’s trading at $27 in the first place, whether that perception is wrong, and what makes the gap close…

Investor Letters

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MPTI · long

M-tron

M-Tron Industries is pitched as a long on its sole-source role across more than 40 missile, radar and aerospace programs.

MPTI $300M
Value Investors Club

Why I bought FTAI Aviation

FTAI Aviation’s engine exchange model, owned fleet and Chromalloy PMA partnership target lower-cost CFM56 and V2500 maintenance while…

FTAI $17B
Kairos Research 1 click

Kaspi ($KSPI)

Kaspi trades at 7 times earnings while growing 40%, with its $1 billion Hepsiburada acquisition adding Turkish expansion risk.

KSPI $18B
Calvin Blissett 1 click

Oracle and Animal Spirits

Oracle’s $455 billion RPO and four-year cloud guidance position it as OpenAI’s primary infrastructure partner, while requiring major…

ORCL $429B
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