Monday, October 5, 2026

Selling Cenovus: Up 78% in 10 Months

Cenovus Energy, up 78% in 10 months, is sold after agreeing to buy Athabasca Oil for $5.7 billion at a rich valuation.

CVE $58B

Bison Insights Oct 5 2 clicks

Oct 5 GFL $15B

The Final Countdown: An Update on GFL’s Sale

310 Value’s Newsletter

Oct 5 CRWV $46B

The Thin Margin of Safety in Selling Compute

MBI Deep Dives 8 clicks

From X

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 2 clicks

Deep Sail Capital on X

$MELI - Long term vision. https://t.co/EXtoxpWBg3

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

@AtlasShrug1 The JV with Sharon AI. Look into that. The PPA gives away 5% equity for the right for $NUAI to buy power from Vista.

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 3 clicks

Deep Sail Capital on X

Because they are bullshiting everyone. $NUAI https://t.co/FMGotqQuEr

@RagingVentures Oct 5 1 click

Raging Capital Ventures on X

@TarekAntaki I bought $CHTR stock today as well, Godspeed!

@ACapitalLP Oct 5

A Capital on X

𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲. It’s funny: most people think the proliferation of information has made finding dislocations harder. I’d argue the opposite. When information was scarce, speed was the edge. Today the problem is information overload. Social media, AI, headlines, experts, hot takes. Just like different news organizations (CNN, Fox, MSNOW) can frame the same political candidate through completely different lenses, markets create narratives that can overwhelm the underlying facts. Every trade is a spread between perception and truth. Merger arb just makes that spread explicit because you have a relatively fixed endpoint (the deal consideration). Regular-way equities are harder because “truth” is a moving target. But you don’t need to know whether $TLN is worth $350, $370 or $390 to recognize when Josh Shapiro and data-center pushback have distorted perception enough to send it to $270. You don’t need to perfectly value every business line of $OWL to recognize when a Bloomberg story has caused the market to paint the entire business with the private-credit apocalypse brush. And it works both ways: $GLND wasn’t suddenly a critical-minerals bonanza because of a Trump headline. Sometimes the narrative creates the overvaluation. Having the best model or talking to the most experts helps you estimate truth. But truth without an understanding of perception isn’t a trade. You can be a little wrong on intrinsic value and still make a lot of money if you correctly identify that the market’s narrative has overshot reality. The edge today isn’t knowing whether something is worth exactly $37 or $39. It’s understanding why it’s trading at $27 in the first place, whether that perception is wrong, and what makes the gap close…

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

@BitcoinAIGuy @optionology What assets does $NUAI actually own? A few million of real estate in Texas? Why is everyone so bullish on a company that was run / pivoted into “power shells” by a shady oil field guy like E Will Gray II?

@Fierce__beast Oct 5

Fierce_beast on X

@paulcerro $evlv seems like a pretty difficult biz

@stockgutter Oct 5

SG on X

@MattJMcClintock you don't need to squint to see the underperformance of $RH vs the rest of sector over the past month or ytd 😉 https://t.co/lyt7NOg23h

Portfolio Update September 2026

Portfolio added Otis Worldwide in the mid-$60s, increased Pool, Copart and Floor & Decor, and sold Berkshire Hathaway.

OTIS $25BCPRT $25B

D Invests Oct 5 1 click

Ciena, A Former Telecom Bust, Is Now In The Early Stages Of A Bona Fide Mega Boom

Ciena’s optical networking equipment sales to stronger telecom customers underpin a 2027 long thesis, unlike its 2000-era boom.

CIEN $63B

Marc Gerstein Oct 5 2 clicks

Brazil could be the Q4 Macro Play – My stock ideas: $NU, $INTR, $PICS and maybe $STNE, $PAGS, $DLO and $MELI

Brazilian fintechs NU, INTR and PICS stand to benefit from a Bolsonaro-led runoff surprise that lowers fiscal risk premiums, rates and the…

NU $74BINTR $3.2B

Substack von Philipp Oct 5 3 clicks

Nyxoah: Label Expansion Set To Unlock A Monopoly In A Billion Dollar Market.

Nyxoah's Genio implant could reach CCC patients after an FDA label expansion, targeting 30% of the obstructive sleep apnea device market by…

NYXH $135M

Stephen Tobin Oct 5 3 clicks

NVIDIA SERIES | PART 1 : Jensen's Math and the Blackwell Gap: Dies, Chips, GPUs, and Revenue

Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU rollout created an AI compute oversupply after customers preordered millions of chips amid expected shortages.

NVDA $5.5T

Kakashii's Materials Oct 5 1 click

The Monday Morning Briefing: AI Drives Everything, Yet ROI on Massive Capex Remains Uncertain

Latticework’s briefing questions AI capex returns while featuring Close Brothers, Green Landscaping and OMS Energy Technologies.

OMSE $183M

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 5 2 clicks

British American Tobacco: Harvest

British American Tobacco’s U.S. reset revives combustibles and rebuilds its nicotine-pouch portfolio after legacy-brand writedowns and Velo…

BTI $120B

Invariant Oct 4 5 clicks

Geely: Strategic NIO Battery Deal Is A Win

Geely’s ZEEKR nearly doubled first-half 2026 deliveries to 178,000, while Geely bought 30% of NIO’s battery-swapping unit to reduce…

GELYF $20BNIO $8.6B

The Asian Investor Oct 4 5 clicks

Practical Parametric Yield

Cerebras’s WSE-3 faces parametric-yield constraints that could restrict supply, making power and clock-speed tradeoffs central to its next…

CBRS $39B

Irrational Analysis Oct 4 3 clicks

Did Group 1 Overpay for Hennessy? The Seller’s Own Banker Says It Was a Record.

Group 1 paid $1 billion of goodwill for Hennessy’s 10 dealerships, a record $100 million per store, financed largely with $1.25 billion of…

GPI $2.8B

Cannibal Stocks Oct 4 4 clicks

SHLS · long

Shoals Technologies Group Inc

Shoals Technologies’ utility-scale solar cabling business is reaccelerating as gross margins bottom.

SHLS $1.4B

Value Investors Club Jul 5 3 clicks

Why AMD Is the Most Overhyped Chip Stock | Ben Pouladian on Meta’s Muse, Anthropic IPO, & Semis

Ben Pouladian argues AMD’s Helios racks cannot match NVIDIA GPUs’ fungibility and financing appeal as agentic AI shifts the bottleneck to…

AMD $1.1TNVDA $5.5T

The Monetary Matters Network Sep 30 4 clicks

EQT Corporation (NYSE: EQT) Stock Rating: Hold After Q2 FY12/26 - Why Europe's Gas Shortage Has Not Lifted The Stock

EQT remains tied to roughly $3 Henry Hub gas despite European prices near $23 per MMBtu, with US LNG export capacity limiting overseas…

EQT $33B

Cestrian Capital Research Sep 30 2 clicks

Microsoft: The Xbox Segment Revamp

Microsoft plans to rebuild Xbox after FY2026 through studio cuts, higher hardware prices, Game Pass growth, exclusive releases and the 2028…

MSFT $3.9T

Khaveen Investments Sep 30 2 clicks

3 Mergers and 1 Liquidation in the Danger Zone

Stratus Properties liquidates Austin real estate below projected distributions, while Atlantic Lithium and Intermex await approvals for…

STRS $143MIMXI $376M

Triple S Special Situations Investing Sep 30

💥Yield!💥

Beyond Meat’s Q2 2026 revenue fell 8.2% as U.S. retail and foodservice volumes declined, while a flatter, not inverted, Treasury curve…

BYND $132M

PETITION Sep 30

Amazon: AI Growth Story Looks Great Until You Ask Who's Paying

Amazon expects $220 billion of capex against over $25 billion of AWS AI ARR, with Anthropic and OpenAI projected to supply 73% of AI…

AMZN $2.7T

Deep Value Investing Sep 30

Research Roundup Vol. LIV

Research Roundup covers AAON's data-center cooling ramp, Knife River's margin recovery, ChronoScale's Microsoft-backed neocloud buildout…

AAON $7.2BKNF $2.8B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 30

Annaly Capital Management: Rate Swaps Doing The Heavy Lifting For This REIT

Annaly Capital Management’s rate swaps and MBS expansion lifted earnings available for distribution 28% year over year, supporting its…

NLY $14B

Andres Veurink Sep 30

Toll roads in the sky

Asia's elevator boom favors maintenance and modernization providers, with Otis deriving nearly 90% of operating profit from after-sales…

OTIS $25B

Asian Century Stocks Sep 29 1 click

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