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Thursday, October 1, 2026

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Not So Fast

Entravision, the portfolio’s largest position, fell more than 40% from its highs as Q3 returns dropped to 37.8% YTD.

EVC $682M
The Mikro Kap 2 clicks

From X

@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$IRWD: Citizens raised from 8 to 10, profitable FDA approved biotech, raised guidance (second time in a year) to 450m-475m revenue vs 320m est. Bought VectivBio for 1b. Market cap 682m Q2 2026 earnings: LINZESS Pricing Power Powers a Guidance Raise Ironwood Pharmaceuticals delivered a robust Q2 2026, breaking past conservative Q1 expectations by posting $113M in total revenue (+33% YoY) and raising its full-year guidance across the board. The story here is a massive rebound in LINZESS net pricing. The elimination of inflationary rebates drove commercial margins to 78% (up from 69% a year ago). The company capitalized on this cash flow by paying off $200M in convertible notes with cash on hand, effectively de-risking the balance sheet ahead of heavy R&D investments for the apraglutide STARS-2 trial. Full article with charts - link in bio 🐂 𝐁𝐮𝐥𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 • 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐝 — The strategic reset of the LINZESS list price at the start of 2026 is paying massive dividends. Favorable gross-to-net rebate timing and eliminated inflationary rebates are driving net sales and commercial margins higher, resulting in a full-year guidance raise. • 𝐁𝐚𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐒𝐡𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐃𝐞-𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐞𝐝 — The $200M cash repayment of 2026 convertible notes removes a major maturity overhang, leaving the company well-positioned to self-fund the critical Phase 3 apraglutide trial while generating strong free cash flow. 📷 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞 • 𝐕𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐦𝐞 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐍𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐠 — Despite the net pricing win, LINZESS prescription demand growth decelerated to 4% YoY in Q2, down from 5% in Q1 and the 11-13% growth rates seen in late 2025. The brand is reaching maturity. • 𝐇𝐞𝐚𝐯𝐲 𝐑𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐨𝐧 𝐎𝐧𝐞 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭 — Almost 100% of Ironwood's revenue comes from its share of LINZESS profits. With no clear post-LOE strategy communicated, long-term terminal value remains a risk while the pipeline remains highly concentrated on apraglutide. 📷Bullish. Management is executing flawlessly on their stated goals: maximizing LINZESS cash flow, strengthening the balance sheet, and advancing apraglutide. The guidance raise confirms Q1's strength was not a fluke. 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐬 📷 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐙𝐄𝐒𝐒 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 [NEW] Accelerating. LINZESS commercial margin jumped to 78% in Q2 2026 from 69% in Q2 2025. This was driven by a combination of a 14% increase in U. S. net sales (to $282.3M) and a YoY decrease in AbbVie/Ironwood commercial costs and discounts (from $76.9M to $63.0M). The January 2026 list price reduction successfully eliminated significant inflationary rebates, directly benefiting the bottom line. 📷 𝐁𝐚𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐒𝐡𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐃𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐄𝐱𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐭𝐞𝐝 [NEW] Stable. The company successfully executed its plan to repay the $200M aggregate principal amount of its 1.50% convertible senior notes at maturity in June using cash on hand. While cash balances dropped from $220.5M in Q1 to $79.1M, eliminating this near-term maturity removes a significant financial overhang. The remaining $385M on the revolving credit facility represents manageable leverage against >$310M in projected FY26 Adjusted EBITDA. 📷 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐙𝐄𝐒𝐒 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 [NEW] Decelerating. A specific data point contradicts the purely positive narrative: while revenue and profits are surging due to pricing, the underlying prescription volume growth is slowing. Q2 Rx demand grew 4% YoY (59.8M capsules). This marks a sequential deceleration from 5% in Q1 2026, and is down significantly from the 12-13% growth rates experienced in the second half of 2025. Management raised demand guidance to 'mid-single digits,' but the multi-year volume trend is clearly cooling. 📷 𝐒𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐓𝐚𝐱 𝐍𝐨𝐧-𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐃𝐫𝐚𝐠 Stable. Ironwood recorded $22.4M in income tax expense in Q2 (vs $14.2M in Q2 25). The majority of this is non-cash as the company utilizes net operating losses (NOLs). While it doesn't impact immediate cash flow, it continually depresses GAAP EPS and highlights the complex tax situation of historical R&D-heavy biotech models. 𝐎𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐊𝐏𝐈𝐬 𝐀𝐝𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐄𝐁𝐈𝐓𝐃𝐀: $83.0 million Accelerating. Up 66% YoY from $50.1M in Q2 2025. The company’s focus on expense discipline combined with the rebound in LINZESS net pricing continues to generate massive operating leverage. 𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰: $58.3 million Reversing positively. A massive swing from Q2 2025, which saw cash from operations at a negative $15.1 million. This robust cash generation enabled the $200M debt repayment without tapping into further credit facilities. 𝐆𝐮𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐑𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐮𝐞: $460 - $485 million Accelerating. Raised from the prior estimate of $450 - $475M. At the midpoint ($472.5M), this represents an acceleration over the $290 - $310M baseline seen in 2025, heavily driven by the LINZESS pricing structure changes. 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 𝐀𝐝𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐄𝐁𝐈𝐓𝐃𝐀: >$310 million Accelerating. Raised from the prior floor of >$300 million. Proves that the incremental revenue gains from LINZESS are dropping almost entirely to the bottom line. 𝐅𝐘𝟐𝟔 🔴le-rate debt versus building cash for business development? 𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐒-𝟐 𝐄𝐧𝐫𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐞𝐝 With STARS-2 actively recruiting, are you seeing any enrollment headwinds due to competing GLP-2 trials in the SBS-IF space, and when should investors expect completion of enrollment? 🔴
@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

$TLRY: I picked because they have Montauk beer, a brand I am super familiar (lol losing braincells scuttlebutt) with because of where I live so it piqued my interest. Secular beer decline will not affect this brand, it is a premium brand and will stay so catering to the wealthiest people on the planet (Hamptons). GAAP losses and dilution, federal rescheduling of cannabis could be huge: By holding onto those 15 to 18 inactive asset pieces (MedMen Stores/Licenses) right now, Tilray owns a massive pipeline of U.S. cannabis real estate that costs them almost nothing to maintain today, but will command a massive premium the moment the federal government finalizes the Schedule III transition. CEO got no performance bonus in 26' bc missed targets. At Friday's $4.13 close, market cap is about $566M and current enterprise value is about $733M. global cannabis + beverage platform trading at ~12x FY26 adjusted EBITDA, with international cannabis +34%, Germany driving growth, FY26 revenue +11% and EBITDA +11%, 275MT annual cannabis capacity, and BrewDog acquired out of administration for ~£33M + subsequent U.S./Australia assets; 14.4% of float short.

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