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Wednesday, September 30, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

$PANW and $DDOG both put something real inside the customer's systems that an AI lab cannot recreate by calling SaaS APIs. Palo Alto's install is still harder to replace with AI. 1. Datadog's agents mostly sit outside the traffic and watch production. A bad agent version rarely takes the business down the way a bad firewall rule can. 2. Palo Alto's firewalls and SASE cloud gateways sit inside the traffic and decide what to allow, deny, decrypt or inspect. A wrong allow or deny hits live traffic and live machines. 3. Many Datadog users start the day in a coding agent and open Datadog when something looks wrong. Many Palo Alto users start in its console and stay there through alerts, triage and response. For them, an outside AI agent is an add-on. Cybersecurity work splits two ways on AI risk. Work done before code ships ("shift-left") or from outside the traffic, such as scanning code, checking cloud settings and sorting collected alerts, gives answers that are easy to check. AI agents are already taking over more of it. Work in live traffic and on live machines ("shift-right") means judging whether an attacker is still inside and whether blocking them is safe. That is more ambiguous and mistakes cost more, so enterprises move slower and demand earned trust. Palo Alto is not risk-free. In our view its exposure is the easily checked detection and vulnerability work inside its platform, which AI agents can take over sooner. The threat is not an AI-native firewall startup.
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

Following the action in $FICO, it seems this post from @pulte has drawn increased investor attention to $STC $FAF $ORI $FNF and their title insurance pricing policies. We have had a short call on $STC and $FAF for some time. There's no doubt there are several technology options that could lower title insurance costs (AI) if not eliminate the need for it altogether (blockchain). You already have many brokers offering bundled solutions for title, mortgage, and advisory. Lots of pressure on these busineses.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Someone really should investigate the price action into some of these ancillary biotech stocks.....very reminiscent of a certain Situational Awareness with chip stocks earlier in the year. No one is filing ownership and yet these stocks push higher regardless of macro, or geopolitical news or the overall index moves. Someone with swaps? or options likely at play then using the momentum pf retail and algos to add to the bid. The trade is melting up perfectly to the end of the quarter (not surprised to see them even more aggressively up today than usual to mark performance). We saw this with the chips trade after an unprecedented April-June. But some of the moves with this trade exceed that euphoria (Look at $TXG, $TWST, $SDGR, $RGEN, $GRAL, and a host of other companies)........DO we see the similar move after a giant quarter with a reversal to kick of the next quarter, that was the fate with chips and caused the fund to blow up. Be interesting to see if they learned any lessons, Im guessing not based on recent performance, and if it is a different player the strategy looks the same. These companies need financing and should hit the market bid which is what set off Viacom and was the undoing of Bill Huang in 2021. Lets see, but a basket of these stocks looks interesting at current levels sometime today for gravity/secondaries to come early in Q4

Investor Letters

All letters

Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific…

TDG $60BTPL $23B
Rebound Capital 6 clicks

The Brookfield Moat Masterclass

Brookfield’s BN, BAM, BIP, BEP and BBUC span asset management, infrastructure, renewables and private equity, with BN valued at a 15–20%…

BN $82B
Brad Thomas
UHS · long

Universal Health Svcs INC

Universal Health Services is a profitable hospital operator whose $146 share price over-discounts an earnings-collapse scenario.

UHS $10B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive: Not A No Brainer

AppLovin is down 48% YTD after its first guidance miss, with revenue 1% below expectations and EPS 2.5% short, reviving fears of an adtech…

APP $95B
Capitalist Letters 7 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/04/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Costco’s $4.99 chicken supply chain, Celsius’s 20% energy-drink share, and California utilities’ wildfire…

COST $406B
TSOH Investment Research 5 clicks

Trading Post 9/4/2026

Lululemon reported a 9% global comparable-sales decline, 20% lower leggings sales and mid-single-digit operating-margin guidance, with…

LULU $11B
Cassandra Unchained

Synopsys q3’26 Earnings Update

Synopsys reported 8% EDA and 11% Design IP growth in Q3 2026, with Multiphysics Fusion expected to add revenue from fiscal 2027.

SNPS $94B
Monte Independent Investment Research

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