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Tuesday, September 29, 2026

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Toll roads in the sky

Asia's elevator boom favors maintenance and modernization providers, with Otis deriving nearly 90% of operating profit from after-sales services rather than new installations.

OTIS $25B
Asian Century Stocks 2 clicks

From X

@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

Rubrik’s quiet edge in the agentic era As enterprises deploy autonomous AI agents, the real constraint is becoming governed access to trusted data — not just more models. $RBRK’s Annapurna is building exactly that layer: indexing unstructured data in place, preserving Zero Trust controls, and turning the backup estate into a secure, queryable foundation for AI. In a world where agents can move fast and break things, the company that already owns the governed copy of enterprise data is well positioned.
@convequity 1 click

Convequity on X

The complacency is the point. Gas-directed rigs are still only in the low-to-mid 120s and the trend remains essentially flat. Turbine lead times run 3–5 years and the major OEMs are already sold out into 2029–31. Data-center announcements are loud today, but the actual incremental gas draw from behind-the-meter and new generation does not hit the system until the turbines arrive and the sites come online. That lag is why the market can keep treating gas as abundant through 2026–27 even as the structural deficit builds. When the convexity shows up, it will likely arrive later and harder than most are pricing. $EQT, $AR, $CRK
@RagingVentures 2 clicks

Raging Capital Ventures on X

The capex spend is mind boggling, but I held my nose and bought $META today around $590-600 I don’t how the AI bet will shake out, but I do know that… - $META Reels is sucking up engagement share from everyone, even $NFLX - $GOOG search refers are in free fall, which should benefit $META’s ad network - Zuck is the best owner-operator in the business who is willing to pivot if necessary - There are tremendous AI cost efficiency opps in core $META operations (Note: I have a long and fruitful history with $META and my family members still own their shares going back to 2013, knock on wood)
@RagingVentures 1 click

Raging Capital Ventures on X

I’m now very bullish on $CMCSA as well. In my view, Peacock/NBCU/theme parks are likely worth around the current market cap alone. Importantly, Peacock / NBC are now competitively advantaged in sports media thanks to a superior combination of reach with their NBC broadcast network and their scaled streaming platform. Comcast Cable is struggling, but they have frontloaded a lot of pain; wireless and the bundle is a growth engine; and the balance sheet is actually a strength (not a weakness). Plus, the 6% dividend pays you to wait for the spin in 2027.

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Quick Value #332 - Gentherm (THRM)

Gentherm’s Oct. 1 Reverse Morris Trust with Modine adds commercial and off-highway operations, leaving THRM at 7.4x pro forma EBITDA with…

MOD $9.7B
Value Don't Lie 4 clicks

On’s Premium Playbook

On Holdings targets premium growth through 2029, using LightSpray soccer cleats and higher pricing, with ASPs rising from $145 to $170…

ONON $11B
TSOH Investment Research 5 clicks

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