Saturday, September 26, 2026

Abridged - Capital Cycle IQ & Forensic Files on the Big 5 Hyperscalers (MSFT, AMZN, ORCL, META, GOOG)

Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, Meta and Alphabet face another two years of record AI data-center investment amid $3 trillion in commitments, leases, guarantees and potential off-balance-sheet…

MSFT $3.8TAMZN $2.7T

Cassandra Unchained Sep 26 9 clicks

Sep 26 HONA $49B

New Buy : Honeywell Aerospace $HONA

D Invests 13 clicks

Sep 26 VBNK $720M

VersaBank: The Bank Behind the Bank – How a Canadian Branchless Pioneer Wants to Make Asset-Backed Securities Obsolete

Substack von Philipp 5 clicks

From X

@valuedontlie Sep 26

Colin King on X

To $FOUR credit, they've already been buying back lots of stock and recently killed the Up-C structure (which are terrible) https://t.co/0kRHGBybWV https://t.co/BBTKz873dC

@Fierce__beast Sep 26

Fierce_beast on X

@brianjrobben I mention this possibility as a reason for why it sold down too. I don't think 8% returns are bad for $MCD, but yea, it's not obviously good here. At the same time i'm a bit torn given i am short many resturants this idea maybe is a bit of an idea to balance my book a bit.

@AltayCapital Sep 26 2 clicks

AltayCap on X

The only industries where obvious capital allocation lingo is useful is leasing / banking / insurance. It's much more nebulous in operating businesses that do real things. $AER ceo saying the cheapest commercial jets are on the NYSE under the ticker AER is easy to understand. As math is pencilling out cost of new orders vs buying back stock. $FOUR competes in the real world. Leasing/banking products are fungible. Much harder biz to forecast. Cap allocation is still important, but a lot harder.

@Fierce__beast Sep 26 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

@theotheraharon But i'm looking for ideas that have been specifically impacted by the degrossing event. Not sure $MXCT or $RARE are correlated to that. The idea is find stocks that are irrationally selling off or getting bid due to the degrossing, then pick your spots from the list you find.

@Fierce__beast Sep 26

Fierce_beast on X

@SolutionOrganic There are other reasons, beyond the return to buy it. But my base case is closer to 8% here. But there are reasons for instance that if inflation rise or rates increase, i think bonds would suffer more than $MCD and $otis at this valuation if you look out 1 year

@Fierce__beast Sep 26

Fierce_beast on X

I guess the issue with buying corporate debt is what if interest rates keep going up or if there is inflation? Fixed rate coupon at 6% you might need to wait till maturity to get paid back. But what if there's also increased inflation? according to blackrock it looks like weighted average maturity is like 9-10 years or so for their BBB index $LQDP. With $MCD and $OTIS i think you get a 6%+ total return in most inflation or interest rate environments at these valuations, hopefully more. I was underwriting something closer to 7-8% for both those stocks personally, but probably 6% would be OK, as I am 200% leveraged long and maybe gonna go higher, so expected return on my equity from these ideas is closer to 12%, maybe 16%. But then adds some other benefits that seem decently valuable, like MCD beta .4, otis .88, defensively better than a lot of stocks in case of a recession. Maybe $MCD is just getting degrossed as everyone leveraged it up on their portfolios at the same time expecting an accepetable return of lets say 5% but leveraged 2x or more they were getting a 10%+ ROE on thier protfolio and now degrossing it at the same time. Not totally sure if i'm underwriting correctly, or if this is the best idea in the world, seemed just OK.

@Fierce__beast Sep 26 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

@JJNews002 bought a little of it too $ABVX

@Fierce__beast Sep 26 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

What are people buying and selling in this apparent biotech degrossing phase? I am looking given the irrationality of the situation and the temporary opportunities it may present on both sides of the ledger. $XBI recent returns seem driven by two stocks $MRNA and $TWST. I shorted small size some $CDNA, $MRVI. Long $ACAD, $UTHR and $CELC. Are these completely idiotic ideas?

GitLab: Positioned To Benefit From Software Development Explosion

GitLab's Q2 FY2027 beat and raised guidance reflect large deals, paid consumption growth and AI demand, while valuation rests on revenue…

GTLB $8.2B

Research and Value Sep 26 3 clicks

Updates

FGPR remains on track, PRTH's management buyout is set at $8.05, and microcap RAVE is described as cheap.

PRTH $642M

Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter Sep 25 12 clicks

The Enron-Era Tricks Are Back in AI: How These Companies Are Hiding Their Debt | The Weekly Wrap

Steve Eisman says AI companies are reviving Enron-era off-balance-sheet and circular financing, alongside concerns around Oracle and Blue…

META $1.8TORCL $419B

Steve Eisman Sep 25 5 clicks

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $28B

Hated Moats Sep 25 7 clicks

The Agents Revolt

Meta’s Muse reached 2.8 million downloads in two weeks, using AI agents to automate insurance shopping and erode customer inertia that…

META $1.8T

Net Interest Sep 25 6 clicks

Oklo: Shares Have Plunged, But I'm Still Bearish

Oklo shares have fallen 77% since October 2025 as commercialization slips beyond 2027, revenue estimates fall and dilution continues.

OKLO $6.7B

Ian Bezek Sep 25 5 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/25/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Ralph Lauren’s $1 billion distribution pullback, Peloton’s $2,195 foldable treadmill and $800 million…

RL $21BPTON $2.2B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 25 5 clicks

IonQ: Nvidia QPU Catalyst Isn't Enough

IonQ's Q2 2026 revenue rose 287% to $80.1 million, but durability hinges on its $485 million RPO and enterprise adoption for production AI…

IONQ $18B

Deep Value Investing Sep 25 2 clicks

Single Stock Spotlight #15: Rocket Companies (RKT)

Rocket Companies combines Redfin, Rocket Mortgage and Mr. Cooper into an end-to-end homeownership platform, adding mortgage servicing fees…

RKT $33B

Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter Sep 25 6 clicks

Eckert & Ziegler: The Pick-and-Shovel Supplier of the Radiopharma Boom – Finally at a Fair Price

Eckert & Ziegler trades near €12, about 14 times expected earnings, as its isotope supply business expands with radiopharma demand despite…

NVS $271B

Substack von Philipp Sep 25 3 clicks

PLAB · long

Photronics INC

PLAB $1.8B

Value Investors Club May 30

Thinking Notes

AI capex rests on coding-centric benchmarks, cheap-model commoditization and circular financing: OpenAI’s $60 billion annual Oracle…

NVDA $5.5TORCL $419B

Bearstone Jul 16

Groupon Built a Brain

Groupon is building an AI “Brain” to personalize its app for each user, turning its turnaround plan into a product initiative.

GRPN $815M

Mispriced Assets Jul 16

Thoughts on PayPal Buyout Offer

PayPal faces a $60.50-per-share buyout offer from Stripe and Advent, with a rejection or counteroffer above $80 viewed as more likely.

PYPL $45B

Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter Jul 15

Rebound Watchlist: July 2026

Rebound Capital's July 2026 watchlist puts AeroVironment and Coinbase under review after UnitedHealth rose more than 70% from its low.

AVAV $7.3BCOIN $50B

Rebound Capital Jul 15

Airbnb’s Cost of Market Creation and Regulatory Survival

Airbnb spent 1.1% of 2025 GBV on field operations and policy as regulatory costs persisted; New York’s short-term-rental crackdown cut…

ABNB $94B

MBI Deep Dives Jul 15 3 clicks

$CBZ: stop the buybacks and restart the M&A flywheel? | Reference Equity

CBIZ activist Ryan Bunn urges ending buybacks, issuing equity and resuming bolt-on acquisitions to delever after the $2.3 billion Marcum…

CBZ $3B

Yet Another Value Podcast Jul 14 2 clicks

New Position: Volatility Merchant

A digital market-infrastructure platform dominant in rates and expanding in credit trades at 22 times free cash flow, with 45%+ FCF margins…

TW $24B

Aurelion Research Jul 14

Jet2 Earnings and easyJet's Takeover (JET2); Concerns at TerraVest (TVK.TO)

Jet2 reported £551 million PBT and launched a £250 million buyback, while Apollo’s easyJet offer values the rival at 10x EV/EBIT.

TRRVF $1.7B

Hidden Gems Investing Jul 14 1 click

WhatsApp's New Era

WhatsApp named CRED founder Kunal Shah to replace Will Cathcart after Meta bought a 20% CRED stake for $900 million, signaling a push to…

META $1.8T

MBI Deep Dives Jul 14 1 click

Saturday, September 26, 2026

Colin King on X

Fierce_beast on X

AltayCap on X

Fierce_beast on X

Fierce_beast on X

Fierce_beast on X

Fierce_beast on X

Fierce_beast on X

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