Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Saturday, September 26, 2026

Back to today

From X

@AltayCapital 4 clicks

AltayCap on X

The only industries where obvious capital allocation lingo is useful is leasing / banking / insurance. It's much more nebulous in operating businesses that do real things. $AER ceo saying the cheapest commercial jets are on the NYSE under the ticker AER is easy to understand. As math is pencilling out cost of new orders vs buying back stock. $FOUR competes in the real world. Leasing/banking products are fungible. Much harder biz to forecast. Cap allocation is still important, but a lot harder.
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

I guess the issue with buying corporate debt is what if interest rates keep going up or if there is inflation? Fixed rate coupon at 6% you might need to wait till maturity to get paid back. But what if there's also increased inflation? according to blackrock it looks like weighted average maturity is like 9-10 years or so for their BBB index $LQDP. With $MCD and $OTIS i think you get a 6%+ total return in most inflation or interest rate environments at these valuations, hopefully more. I was underwriting something closer to 7-8% for both those stocks personally, but probably 6% would be OK, as I am 200% leveraged long and maybe gonna go higher, so expected return on my equity from these ideas is closer to 12%, maybe 16%. But then adds some other benefits that seem decently valuable, like MCD beta .4, otis .88, defensively better than a lot of stocks in case of a recession. Maybe $MCD is just getting degrossed as everyone leveraged it up on their portfolios at the same time expecting an accepetable return of lets say 5% but leveraged 2x or more they were getting a 10%+ ROE on thier protfolio and now degrossing it at the same time. Not totally sure if i'm underwriting correctly, or if this is the best idea in the world, seemed just OK.

Investor Letters

All letters

Updates

FGPR remains on track, PRTH's management buyout is set at $8.05, and microcap RAVE is described as cheap.

PRTH $642M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 13 clicks

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $28B
Hated Moats 8 clicks
RGLD · long

Royal Gold INC

Royal Gold, a $19 billion precious-metals royalty and streaming company, benefits from mine production without operating mines directly.

RGLD $20B
Value Investors Club

Brown & Brown

Brown & Brown compounded revenue 14.4% annually since 1998 through more than 650 acquisitions, capped by its nearly $10 billion Accession…

BRO $21B
Eagle Point Capital

When the Ducks are Quacking

Ford’s 1956 IPO sold 10.2 million shares at $63 each after Goldman Sachs helped resolve the Ford Foundation’s voting-rights problem.

F $48BGS $267B
Net Interest 1 click

What's going on with Marvell?

Marvell's Structera CXL cards make surplus DDR4 usable in memory pools, with dense SRAM IP helping mask latency amid DRAM shortages.

MRVL $235B
Irrational Analysis

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

110 publications

Newsletters 93

YouTube 4

Blogs 12

Seeking Alpha 43 of 208

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

73 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

189 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.