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Thursday, September 24, 2026

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@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

This is obviously unsustainable. The larger the gap, the worse the crash. Semis are printing cash now - but for a buyer and seller relationship to be healthy over a long time, everyone, both sides, needs to make $. I think $AMZN can make $ because their flagship business sells compute capacity and their capex ramp has funded more capacity to sell. $META can work because their flagship biz benefits from internal AI and they may in fact have excess compute capacity to sell - which is a positive pivot. $GOOGL is less clear to me. Their flagship biz is soaking up internal compute because new entrants in search, gPT for one, have $750B in capex earmarked - not to sell compute but to improve their own frontier capabilities. At the same time, $GOOGL's external compute biz is going to do great - but in this theater they are also competing with AMZN/MSFT etc. So for $GOOGL there's no pivot opportunity akin to $META and there's 2x the capex need as the arms race accelerates for both internal and external needs.
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

$DHR move this week is odd. I know its trading off $TMO today but the bioprocessing is the bigger piece to DHR and those sales/guide were disappointing and you saw weak action from https://t.co/sj9MDhumCh today off their numbers and even $RGEN trading off. $165 - $190 in two days this week seems off. Maybe the initial flush was over done, but hard to argue this business deserves to trade back at 200 where it came into earnings after seeing the bioprocessing commentary. Seems like a fade at 190
@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

Ok so $GOOGL beat on every KPI that they told you mattered for the print. And yet the stock is off 6% and nuking the market with it. This is bad for the AI cycle for two reasons: 1. Credit markets were already revolting vs hyperscalers capex spend. 2. Now if equity markets revolt too - where does the funding come from? Either CEO's like Sundar who get paid 10s of millions / year need to make an actual attempt to quantify expected CASH ROIC to the market OR markets might just say they've had enough...we see the $ out the door and have no line of sight as to when it comes back in. We selling. @ajassy take note.

Investor Letters

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Research Roundup Vol. LIII

Micron’s customer agreements, Analog Devices’ acquisitions, Ondas’ GATE deal and Baker Hughes’ power systems position them for AI…

MU $1.2TADI $203B
Monte Independent Investment Research 5 clicks

CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV)

CoreWeave funds GPU data-center expansion with debt backed by $104 billion in contracted revenue, while GPU cloud rentals generate roughly…

CRWV $49B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 10 clicks
MA · long

Mastercard

Mastercard trades near $495, about 18% below its $602 52-week high, framing a favorable long risk-reward case.

MA $495B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

GameStop Is Extreme Deep Value

GameStop's collectibles mix rose to 45% of sales as gross margin reached 44%, supporting a deep-value case built on cash and store…

GME $13B
The Value Road 9 clicks

A2Gold: Research Note

A2Gold’s first Taylor drill holes returned 20.96 g/t AuEq over 1.5m and 209.4 g/t silver over 10.7m, alongside 141.10 g/t gold at…

KGC $28B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 4 clicks

[CoStar] Homes are different

CoStar spent more than $1 billion building Homes.com to challenge Zillow, betting seller-agent leads, proprietary listing content and…

CSGP $11B
scuttleblurb 5 clicks

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