$FOUR: Shift4 at 6.5x EBITDA. Is the organic growth real? | Emeth Value Capital
Shift4 trades at 6.5x EBITDA despite 11% reported organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases cited as evidence of net-new merchant additions.
Shift4 trades at 6.5x EBITDA despite 11% reported organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases cited as evidence of net-new merchant additions.
@ShmuelLon I actually don't think $PFF is the best expression of this trade, I'm just using it here cause it's got a long track record. But I've been going through the securities in stuff like $PGC and $PGF and I think as a basket they're very attractive.
Heres a portfolio that's 80% $SPY, $70% $TLT, -70% $PFF, 20% $GLD. Similar return with way lower volatility. Obviously this is just backwards looking, but there are structural reasons why this kind of mix works (Preferred stocks suck, most of the alpha is there). https://t.co/pfsyWJG2f2
My largest short is $PFFD a preferred ETF, but I'm switching the exposure to $PGF. Even though it's 2% borrow vs 1% for PFFD, PFFD has 25% exposure to mandatory convertibles that essentially act as equity. Meanwhile PGF is full of low yield, perpetual, callable preferreds, which
@taobanker This is reasonable. I guess the counter would be that current business momentum is much stronger than at least $LULU, I haven't looked at Gap or BBW
@finphysnerd @taobanker A sentiment check on X searching $DECK, its universally positive except @CatNyanpital who is the only bearish comments on this name. Doesn't mean it can't work though
@Goldridge_Cap $KWY I only think about per share growth. This assumes they are only issuing a small number of shares each year under their executive comp plan. Not additional shares to do acquisitions.
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Shift4 trades at 6.5 times EBITDA despite 11% organic growth, with Shift4 Dine equipment leases reaching a $400 million run rate as…
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