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Saturday, September 19, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

The complacency is the point. Gas-directed rigs are still only in the low-to-mid 120s and the trend remains essentially flat. Turbine lead times run 3–5 years and the major OEMs are already sold out into 2029–31. Data-center announcements are loud today, but the actual incremental gas draw from behind-the-meter and new generation does not hit the system until the turbines arrive and the sites come online. That lag is why the market can keep treating gas as abundant through 2026–27 even as the structural deficit builds. When the convexity shows up, it will likely arrive later and harder than most are pricing. $EQT, $AR, $CRK
@RagingVentures

Raging Capital Ventures on X

I’m now very bullish on $CMCSA as well. In my view, Peacock/NBCU/theme parks are likely worth around the current market cap alone. Importantly, Peacock / NBC are now competitively advantaged in sports media thanks to a superior combination of reach with their NBC broadcast network and their scaled streaming platform. Comcast Cable is struggling, but they have frontloaded a lot of pain; wireless and the bundle is a growth engine; and the balance sheet is actually a strength (not a weakness). Plus, the 6% dividend pays you to wait for the spin in 2027.
@RagingVentures

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Not the greatest quarter but no change in my $CHTR view, although I did sell some of my October calls today. Owning common and LEAPs are most interesting now. The Cox acquisition should close in mid- to late-August, which I view as a catalyst for analysts and investors to revisit their models. $CHTR is now trading at around 2x pro forma 2028 FCF per share, with incredible balance sheet optionality (which they have started to monetize via buybacks and swaps at a discount). I also think $CHTR has front-loaded a lot of ARPU pain and invested heavily to stabilize video in recent years. While broadband will remain challenged, I don’t believe the worst case scenarios and think wireless growth and pricing can provide a valuable offset.

Investor Letters

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Groceries, Aggregators, and Agents

DoorDash's grocery push targets a shift from weekly stock-up trips to frequent online fill-in orders, though smaller baskets complicate…

DASH $81B
MBI Deep Dives 1 click

QNT: The 100× Question

Quantinuum's improving logical-qubit error correction, 1,504 successful-circuit benchmark score and paid deployments at RIKEN, BMW and…

QNT $2B
Mispriced Assets 3 clicks

Deep Dive: Grab Holdings ($GRAB)

Grab generates 53% of revenue from delivery, 36% from mobility and 10% from financial services, using its Southeast Asian marketplace to…

GRAB $13B
Rebound Capital 1 click

House of Weichai

Weichai Power built a global engine group through Baudouin and a 46% stake in PSIX, positioning both for large-bore generator demand from…

PSIX $1.1B
Maius Partners 2 clicks

Diamond Estates: Research Note

Diamond Estates Wines & Spirits plans to expand grocery and export sales, invest in six brands, and improve winery operations through FY29.

LSDAF $1.2B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks

Copart 4Q26 Business Update

Copart's U.S. insurance volumes fell 7.5% in 4Q26, largely from one customer loss, while international insurance units rose 11.2% and…

CPRT $26B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks

Vizsla Silver (VZLA)

Vizsla Silver's Panuco project in Sinaloa remains shut after nine workers were found dead, delaying construction of a fully funded 17.4 Moz…

VZLA $2B
Triple S Special Situations Investing 1 click

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