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Thursday, September 17, 2026

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Power Semiconductors: The Follow-Up

STMicroelectronics, Navitas and Wolfspeed offer contrasting power-semiconductor cases tied to NVIDIA’s 800V AI data-center architecture, spanning an incumbent leader, a speculative…

NVTS $2.9B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 1 click

From X

@blondesnmoney

Cluseau Investments on X

Disclaimer: I have sold this position and have no view on the valuation or future prospects My craziest OTC adventure this year was discovering a single-asset refinery that sells Jet Fuel to the US Military. It sounds kinda crazy, but it's the exact type of ridiculous setup funny enough to look into. In July, refining crack spreads were blowing out, and nearly every refiner $PBF, $PARR, $VLO, $PSX were steamrolling. I wanted some exposure, but I felt sheepish chasing names that were already tearing it up. I started looking at smaller refiners, but nearly everyone was in the 3x - 5x forward earnings range, not expensive, but for a cyclical, also not really that cheap. It turns out that, aside from the megacap refiners and $PARR, there's only one other US listed microcap refiner, Blue Dolphin Energy $BDCO. The stock is heavily insider owned, and at the time, was trading at just over 4x Q1 earnings ($0.99). Crack spreads are publicly viewable, and other refiners were demolishing estimates - $PARR came in at $11 in Q2, triple Q1, so it didn't take too much math to realize BDCO's Q2 was gonna be strong given jet fuel prices, and that the stock was potentially trading under 1x forward earnings. Of course, it's an OTC name with limited liquidity so you can't realize size it up, but how often do you get a chance to buy someone who supplies jet fuel to the Department of Defense under 1x annualized earnings? It was almost comedic, the story was funny enough to swallow the OTC stigma and just pick up a little bit up. About a week later, Q2 results came in at $1.19 (putting 1H earnings at ($2.18), and the market suddenly realized a stock trading at $4 on $2.18 of two quarter's EPS was just too cheap. The stock hit $18 today - I've been trimming since entry and am finally out. It was a tiny position, but I continue to find it ridiculous that these OTC setups exist. With a small amount of capital and a love for reading filings, you can probably find a slew of OTC names that are actually decently profitable that are simply too small for larger investors to take a stab at. I have no position in BDCO and have no opinion on it, $4 and $18 are totally different prices, but the fact this setup existed and somehow flew under the radar until earnings is pretty entertaining.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

SMR reactors last year or quantum...appears the current moments basket of trash stocks with a narrative that doesn't fit the companies is 3rd derivative ai drug discovery plays (genome, simulation software, etc). $TWST $TEM $SDGR $TXG and theres more My favorite is $WGS - opko rehash with key players from there somehow sitting on a multi billion dollar valuation currently. There were caught with billing schemes multiple times at Opko as well as other serious problems (see Philip frost and opko). A member of the board actually still sits on Frosts charity and the CEO was the CEO of Cathie Wood favorite Invitae, that went bankrupt a few years ago. The short story writes itself, seems like a CVNA almost where the setup is pretty opposite, and yet it probably continues to work against you

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Alarm.com: False Alarm?

Alarm.com, founded after CEO Steve Trundle’s bad home-security experience, has fallen from $105 in 2020 to about $55, testing whether…

ALRM $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click
GPK · long

Graphic Packaging Holding CO

Graphic Packaging (GPK) is pitched as a long with $22 fair value, implying roughly 100% upside, based on its low-cost paper-based packaging…

GPK $2.8B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Sarepta Risk and the FDA

Sarepta’s Exondys 51 approval despite a 12-patient trial frames FDA regulatory risk and a call to remove Commissioner Robert Califf.

SRPT $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 1 click

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