Copart 4Q26 Business Update: Thesis Shift?
Copart’s 4Q26 revenue grew 2.4% as U.S. insurance volumes fell 7.5%, while a customer loss and higher yard costs pressured profits despite international growth.
Wednesday, September 16, 2026
Back to today 
From X
catechwilliams on X
$NX 5% of COGS/ direct input costs sourced from China. Tariffs + zero pricing power, high fixed cost structure + only 30% GMs = 25-30% hit to EBIT. Add 4x leverage, declining volumes, ambitious mgmt guidance while integrating a large acquisition is a setup for a trainwreck.
catechwilliams on X
$AVO calling out the fact that they have been overearning and margins reverting. “experienced normalization of our per unit avocado margins during in Q1.” Noted weak harvest anticipated in Mexcico. $CVGW will be even more adversely impacted by these factors.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT CEO departing, new high-quality CFO (temp) w very attractive secular tailwinds in digital display demand + activist involvement = increased likelihood of takeout. Optimal business for PE. Multiple logical strategics. +75% upside.
catechwilliams on X
$FTDR Vol declining (existing home sales=driver). Pricing lagging inflation, massively over-earning. Problematic given 25% churn w aggressive new entrants. Dubious company overall. Investor day yesterday was comical, compared themselves to $NFLX. Earnings misses coming.
catechwilliams on X
$AVO $CVGW 1) Retailers $CMG, etc sourcing elsewhere given MX tariff risk. 2) Avocado price spike during last year’s peak harvest season enabled distributors to realize outsized margins. 1-time benefit has reversed, significant earnings misses ahead for these commodity businesses
catechwilliams on X
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
catechwilliams on X
$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.
Voss Capital on X
The industrial logic for the $UNF and $CTAS merger captured in one picture. Both have been going to the Chipotle (or same strip center) near our office in Houston on the same days at the same time (the store was closed at the time this pic was taken). https://t.co/zxTIFVgn1s
Investor Letters
All letters- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. Q3 2026 DR0 $469MALM $4.2B
- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.6B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 4549 $498M9301 $3.3B
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. July 2026 NEO $1.1BVNP $1.9B
- Lindsell Train Limited July RMVEY $3.5B
- Kernow Asset Management July 2026 CKNHF $2.1BCMCX $2.6B
- Forager Funds Management July 2026 4733 $4BTTEK $8.9B
Cestrian Rating Actions - Week Ending 11 September 2026
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Alarm.com: False Alarm?
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Barnes & Noble Education: Improving Fundamentals
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Given Mahlangu 2 clicks
Unpolished Thoughts on Stocks #1
Genius Sports aims to turn official sports data into AI-driven, real-time advertising, with media and ads already about 40% of revenue.
Oak Bloke Bonkers Conkers 13th September 2026
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TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/11/2026)
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Independence Realty Buying Centerspace: Opportunity And Implications
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Stephen Nemo 
Sofwave Medical: Lifting Skin While the Beauty Sector Sags
Sofwave Medical grew Q2 revenue 43% as recurring usage fees reached 46% of sales for its non-invasive ultrasound skin-tightening devices.
GTLB · long Gitlab INC
Zack Buckley on $PRTH's take private
Priority Technology’s chairman offered $6.00 to $6.15 a share to take PRTH private, while Zack Buckley argues Treasury Solutions and…
Rigetti: If You Wanted To Buy Quantum, Do It Now
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Julia Ostian 
Amplitude Q2 26 - Examining The Moat - Rating, Hold.
Amplitude reported Q2 revenue of $100.9 million, up 21%, as agentic AI and LLM vendors challenge the moat of its product analytics software.
Single Stock Spotlight #14: Kosmos Energy (KOS)
Kosmos Energy (KOS) is pitched as an oil stock poised to outperform if oil stays above $70-$80, supported by a claimed 2 billion-barrel…
DHT Holdings: Quality Balance Sheet And Defensible Positioning
DHT Holdings' low-leverage VLCC fleet has paid 66 consecutive dividends, with charter income covering forecast costs and spot earnings…
Arizona Equity Research 
This Company Multi-bags Every Time El Niño Hits. No One Is Talking About It.
Owens Corning's roofing business has historically posted sharp EBITDA and share-price gains during El Niño storm years, as severe weather…
ContextLogic Acquires gChem (LOGC): Update and Valuation
ContextLogic will acquire specialty-solvent maker gChem for $850 million, funded by a $650 million rights offering and $250 million of…
WD #357: Tecnoglass/Tariffs, Colombia Mining Boom?, Airports & Airlines
Tecnoglass could recover tariff- and FX-hit margins as U.S. blanket tariffs on Colombian goods lift.
Scholar Rock: Manufacturing Noise Obscures A Muscle-Targeted Franchise
Scholar Rock’s apitegromab could become the first muscle-targeted SMA therapy by September 2026, but manufacturing setbacks and a…
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