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Tuesday, September 15, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Sector action is bizarre today --- travel/discretionary (ex amazon (who posted very lousy prime sales) are surging), housing and adjacent like furniture ($w $wsm), biotech adjacent bid ($rgen, $medp) and waste stocks ($wcn). You want to derrick micron, I get it. And I get gas prices lower, market expects to fade out rate cuts that were priced moving forward as Warsh moves to trim mean/new data versus actually being hawkish, and some impact on a name like $hd off the housing bill. But all of these things are at the margin and known leading up to today --- so why target, kbh (on relatively inline to disappointing numbers yesterday) Expedia today versus yesterday? Market moves in very funny ways recently
@ActAccordingly 1 click

PAA Research on X

If you're wondering just how unusual this year has been, here's yet another way to look at it. TWENTY THREE S&P 500 stocks have increased 100%+ this year. That's by far the highest number for at least the past FORTY years (maybe all-time). The stocks that have doubled have contributed roughly 5-6% of the overall 8% gain YTD for the S&P 500. It is highly unusual for an S&P 500 stock to double. In most years, there are at most a few stocks that double. Of course the last time we saw a surge in the number of S&P 500 stocks that doubled was in 1999..... History suggests this type of unrelenting bid will not be sustained. As you look at the list below, you'll notice the only non-AI/semis/data center stock in the S&P 500 that has doubled is $MRNA, which was down (-90%+) from its COVID19 highs. If you're looking for doubles or 10-baggers going forward, perhaps it's time to look outside of the data center trade... $SNDK $WDC $STX $MU $INTC $DELL $MRVL $FLEX $AMD $AMAT $LITE $GLW $LRCX $TER $ON $COHR $MRNA $FIX $HPE $GNRC $KLAC $Q
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Anybody see this run in $WNC? crazy, gone from serious balance sheet risk to the fastest trade in the market. Company commented they might get to a replacement market next year (versus years of tough order books) and the commerce ruling on dumping from china that will put tariffs on Chinese suppliers (maybe 20% of the market?) should help those 27' numbers. But issues remain in what is a pretty poor business when the dominant industry player fluctuates on bankruptcy each cycle.

Investor Letters

All letters

Alarm.com: False Alarm?

Alarm.com, founded after CEO Steve Trundle’s bad home-security experience, has fallen from $105 in 2020 to about $55, testing whether…

ALRM $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

Unpolished Thoughts on Stocks #1

Genius Sports aims to turn official sports data into AI-driven, real-time advertising, with media and ads already about 40% of revenue.

GENI $1.6B
Sylence Capital 2 clicks
ZM · long

Zoom Communications INC

Zoom Communications (ZM) is presented as a long investment idea.

ZM $26B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis

Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed…

LULU $11B
Hated Moats 2 clicks

The Five Deals That Made Apollo

Apollo Global Management’s five defining deals, from Executive Life to Intel, built a $1 trillion asset manager spanning insurance and…

APO $73B
Net Interest 1 click

NET Power (NPWR):

NET Power’s $1.80 shares are paired with January $2 covered calls for 40 cents as the company pivots from carbon capture to Permian…

NPWR $160M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks

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