Sunday, September 13, 2026

Unpolished Thoughts on Stocks #1

Genius Sports aims to turn official sports data into AI-driven, real-time advertising, with media and ads already about 40% of revenue.

GENI $1.6B

Sylence Capital Sep 13 2 clicks

Sep 13 SVM $2.7B

Oak Bloke Bonkers Conkers 13th September 2026

The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

Sep 11 LULU $11B

Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis

Hated Moats 2 clicks

From X

@TheBenSchmark Sep 12

JabroniCoin.USD on X

Sometimes a simple chart and pun captures the entire thesis. Just go with the $FLO and make bread. https://t.co/VyIYTaVRF1 https://t.co/lGn8FncexY

@Fierce__beast Sep 12

Fierce_beast on X

For $CASY, let's say it grows earnings roughly 6% on average for the next 20 years, then 3% terminally. Maybe its 9% for the next 5 years, but gradually moves toward something like maturity of 3%, average let's say is 6%. What multiple would you currently pay on that earnings stream? Personally, i would pay no more than 25x for this. Add other considerations to the business, maybe you think it will grow faster or longer, adjust your multiple as you prefer.

@TidefallCapital Sep 12

Trevor Scott on X

my mistake $ADBE has a Nov year end. so it's 12x nov 2027, 14x nov 2026.

@finphysnerd Sep 12 1 click

Myles on X

I feel $GEO is a pretty decent short here. It's not cheap, and I might be politically biased, but I think it's hard to see Republicans getting many wins in the midterms, which the market will likely extrapolate to 2028.

@TidefallCapital Sep 11

Trevor Scott on X

I'll never understand going long $ADBE at 14x '27 when you can buy $CSU.TO at 15x '27. Maybe because it's Canadian listed.

@negligible_cap Sep 11

Negligible Capital on X

I simply refuse to believe that $ADBE has over 1 billion monthly active users https://t.co/U7tgBRDhM2

@kab604 Sep 11

kab60 on X

@MananaInvesting @AKWilk I'd love for you to lay out the math. Only expensive if you don't understand where Blackrod takes the company (or think it's a dud). It's cheaper than the financially engineered hodgepodge of assets Adam has assembled. $GFR obviously a magnet to value bois/generalists.

@StockJabber Sep 11

Edwin Dorsey on X

@Mike10947310 What do you think of Edenbrook selling off some of its $FEIM position in August? https://t.co/YOsXfjCnr4

Why “Affordable Luxury” Doesn't Compound

Lululemon’s growth stalled as affordable-luxury apparel brands face fading post-Covid demand, cheap social-media influence and China…

LULU $11BNKE $54B

MBI Deep Dives Sep 11 2 clicks

The Five Deals That Made Apollo

Apollo Global Management’s five defining deals, from Executive Life to Intel, built a $1 trillion asset manager spanning insurance and…

APO $74B

Net Interest Sep 11 1 click

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/11/2026)

TSOH weekly roundup covers Meta’s child-safety settlement, Markel’s leadership transition, Peloton’s gym strategy and an upcoming Alarm.com…

MKL $22BPTON $2.1B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 11 2 clicks

Independence Realty Buying Centerspace: Opportunity And Implications

Independence Realty Trust is buying Centerspace in stock to create an $8.1 billion apartment REIT, targeting 5% 2027 Core FFO per-share…

IRT $3.8BCSR $935M

Dane Bowler Sep 11

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) Stock Rating: Accumulate - Initiating Coverage

Joby Aviation is initiated at Accumulate after booking $116m of trailing revenue, forming a Toyota manufacturing venture and agreeing to…

JOBY $6.2B

Cestrian Capital Research. Sep 11

NewtekOne: Pivot Towards Holding Guaranteed Loans A Good Strategy

NewtekOne’s bank conversion and retention of SBA-guaranteed loans target recurring income, while a 6% yield and book-value valuation…

NEWT $343M

Stephen Nemo Sep 11

Sofwave Medical: Lifting Skin While the Beauty Sector Sags

Sofwave Medical grew Q2 revenue 43% as recurring usage fees reached 46% of sales for its non-invasive ultrasound skin-tightening devices.

SOFWF $364M

Substack von Philipp Sep 11 1 click

Zack Buckley on $PRTH's take private

Priority Technology’s chairman offered $6.00 to $6.15 a share to take PRTH private, while Zack Buckley argues Treasury Solutions and…

PRTH $479M

Yet Another Value Podcast Sep 10 3 clicks

The Williams Companies: A Tough Competitor Tackles The Northeast

Williams Companies faces a revoked Northeast pipeline permit while pursuing growth through Momentum Midstream, Gulf export access and…

WMB $87B

Long Player Sep 10

Amplitude Q2 26 - Examining The Moat - Rating, Hold.

Amplitude reported Q2 revenue of $100.9 million, up 21%, as agentic AI and LLM vendors challenge the moat of its product analytics software.

AMPL $1.7B

Cestrian Capital Research. Sep 10

MOH · long

Molina Healthcare

Molina Healthcare faces unprecedented Medicaid managed-care cost inflation and margin compression after its shares declined since October…

MOH $11B

Value Investors Club Jun 6

2026 Q2 Earnings Updates: WeightWatchers, Shift4, Bumble

Bumble fell, Shift4 dropped 23% and WeightWatchers rose 18% after earnings, prompting added Shift4 exposure and a sharp WeightWatchers…

BMBL $376MFOUR $3.3B

Modern Value Investing Aug 9

Noah Holdings ($NOAH): A Chinese Wealth Manager Trading at Its Cash Pile

Noah Holdings trades near the value of its RMB 5.1 billion cash and short-term investments, while earning recurring fees on roughly RMB 140…

NOAH $562M

Substack von Philipp Aug 8

$HIMS: Paul Cerro wouldn't trust the CEO to walk his dog. He's still long. Why? | Cedar Grove

Hims & Hers investor Paul Cerro is long again on lab and patient data driving retention and LTV, despite management concerns, GLP-1…

HIMS $7.1B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 7 9 clicks

OXY's Plan for Financial FREEDOM

Occidental Petroleum’s plan targets debt-free operations and roughly double 2025 cash generation under new CEO Richard Jackson, following…

OXY $59B

Open Insights Aug 7

BREAKING: Kawhi Leonard's Other Undisclosed "Sponsorship" Deal

Daktronics allegedly paid Kawhi Leonard millions in a hidden sponsorship deal tied to the Clippers’ Intuit Dome, raising fresh questions…

DAKT $870M

Hunterbrook Aug 7

Airbnb 2Q'26: Widening the Gap with Booking

Airbnb added 14 million booked nights and seats, up 10%, and guided low-double-digit third-quarter growth as North America and EMEA…

ABNB $99B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 7 6 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (08/07/2026)

TSOH’s weekly roundup covers Crocs’ $218.6 million Malta tax savings, Roblox’s forecast bookings decline and Lululemon’s CEO change amid…

CROX $5.9BRBLX $34B

TSOH Investment Research Aug 7

DoorDash 2Q'26: Growth Beyond the Restaurant

DoorDash’s 2Q 2026 orders rose 27% and marketplace GOV grew 36%, with DashPass driving a slight acceleration in U.S. restaurant demand.

DASH $84B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 6 2 clicks

DEC-laration of independence

Diversified Energy cut $233 million of debt in 1H26, repurchased $93 million of stock and sold $273 million of land and assets while…

DEC $972M

The Oak Bloke Aug 6 7 clicks

Sunday, September 13, 2026

JabroniCoin.USD on X

Fierce_beast on X

Trevor Scott on X

Myles on X

Trevor Scott on X

Negligible Capital on X

kab60 on X

Edwin Dorsey on X

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