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Wednesday, September 2, 2026

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@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

$SNOW conference call is the bear case for application software companies. Their data infrastructure combined with coco and cowork on top increasingly makes SNOW a key player in data migrations, and data consolidation for their customers and a key hub to switch between models means SNOW has a seat at the table to be one of the most important and internal pieces of an AI stack....and as they become the permissions data holder with governance and api/mpc to internal and external partners, they can actually become the system of record across applications. This would allow you to use tools like cocoa inside to contextualize in human language what you want built, or even what data/answers you want and how you want that visualized.... Compare this to a Salesforce that is essentially becoming a database company silo to their specific domain by opening up their data to Claude to be the work engine. Eventually companies will increasingly want to stop interfacing with multiple applications to query and want to UI and query across a singular interface (originally thought to be an LLM like Claude, but with specific training and different inference costs / intelligence across models its more like the player presiding over the biggest pool of company data (snowflake, databricks) could become that central payer - less model lock, more flexibly, and central access point for models, data, queries and ui across functions. May not relegate a salesforce obsolete but significantly destroys their value when people access from Snow or even from an LLM like Claude were they lose the ui interface, and behavioral association and slight shared/learned network effects and become a database. Increases switching costs overtime and certainly destroys pricing (agent force consumption model is a step in the modern pricing setup, but start based models are dead, its not an if for most applications without highly defensible and proprietary data) $PEGA, $APPN, $PATH, $CRM, $PAYC are first pass through som of the more exposed names
@ActAccordingly 1 click

PAA Research on X

$ATD (think Circle K) said on its earnings call that its revenues from energy drinks are now twice that of carbonated sodas (albeit at lower margin). $ATD comped 1.7% on SSS of which a big portion was driven by double digit growth in energy drinks. I look at the charts of $CELH and $MNST and wonder how long the c-store players can count on continued growth in this category. It's energy drinks and Zyn... $CASY $MUSA

Investor Letters

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NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $6.5B
The Oak Bloke 13 clicks

Floor & Decor: 2Q26 Business Update

Floor & Decor’s same-store sales improved to minus 2%, while $45 million of tariff refunds lifted second-quarter gross profit and operating…

FND $5B
Speedwell Memos 8 clicks
SIRI · long

Sirius Xm Holdings INC

SiriusXM, SIRI, combines a 32% EBITDA margin with 3.6x net leverage and a 16% free-cash-flow margin despite elevated capex.

SIRI $9.4B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Haw Par Corporation Limited

Haw Par combines Tiger Balm’s stable cash flows with property, leisure and healthcare operations plus stakes in UOB and UOL.

HAWPY $3B
smallvalue. 4 clicks

National Beverage Update

National Beverage’s rare share repurchase is framed as a buy signal, with 50% upside projected.

FIZZ $3B
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 3 clicks

Tis The (Earnings) Season

Argentine banks, tariff-exposed stocks and Customer’s Bancorp anchor an earnings-season watchlist after Milei’s election victory,…

CUBI $2.7B
Cluseau Research 3 clicks

When extend and pretend is a virtue

Upstart says longer repayment terms lifted Q1 debt-settlement acceptances 50%, but does not disclose delinquency changes or the number of…

UPST $2.4B
John Hempton's Newsletter 2 clicks

Sarepta Risk and the FDA

Sarepta’s Exondys 51 approval despite a 12-patient trial frames FDA regulatory risk and a call to remove Commissioner Robert Califf.

SRPT $2.2B
John Hempton's Newsletter 1 click

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