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Tuesday, September 1, 2026

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@orrdavid 2 clicks

David Orr on X

I privately told a few fund managers I respect these investing themes/theses privately: "AI is going to drive far more medical/biotech research in pursuit of age reversal technologies than we had before. In fact, at least a couple of these are reasonably likely to be the most valuable companies on the planet in 10-20 years." and related, "Many of the old medical research companies are dinosaurs, since their tech will not keep up with the new age of AI driven medical research." I told them this at the start of 2025, and for example mentioned they avoid shorting $ARKG type stocks. I could tell they thought I was completely retarded, out of my mind, etc. A couple thoughts: 1. I bet those people don't think the idea is stupid at all today. and 2. Having a thesis that seems insane but is often wrong is *awesome*. It's a heads you win, tails you lose nothing situation. Besides $MEDP long, I didn't really know how to play the idea other than avoiding a bunch of shorts. These are theses I still very much believe today, and still today I don't see people talking about them.
@majgeoinvesting

Maj Soueidan on X

Been thinking about $FTEK for the last couple days. My first reaction to the Q2 report was disappointment (although, it was largely expected). However, I’m trying to get better at flipping my initial positive or negative emotional reactions and think of the counter responses. For FTEK, that would be: ✔️Tiny bit of information arbitrage in the earnings call that they are trying to iron out some things with a data center customer on supply chain guarantees. The key here is that they’re having active discussions with that customer. I don’t think they previously got anywhere close to that. ✔️The new CEO could potentially flip the narrative on FTEK pretty quickly. It looks like the company has a bloated expense profile. I want to see if there’s anything in that structure that could be eliminated, that would quickly make the company profitable. ✔️Furthermore, maybe the new CEO takes the company’s $30M cash balance, and makes an acquisition. Due to his experience working at $CECO prior to joining FTEK, he should have some experience evaluating acquisitions,

Investor Letters

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Microsoft ($MSFT) - Deep Dive

Microsoft’s AI data-center buildout lifted annual CapEx from $5.5 billion in FY2014 to $115.9 billion in FY2026, resetting free-cash-flow…

MSFT $3.8T
Bearhold Research 18 clicks

Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…

UWMC $2.4B
Yet Another Value Podcast 26 clicks

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $7.2B
The Oak Bloke 16 clicks

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