Sunday, August 30, 2026
From X
Ian Bezek on X
@taobanker So they can reissue them at fire sale prices in the future to avoid bankruptcy. See American Airlines, circa 2015. $AAL https://t.co/mEfrPFACcY
marginofdanger on X
@leevalueroach $BWEL
David Orr on X
It's these types of ads that $GOOG Google won't be able to get away with long term anymore. This always degraded the user experience. Which was fine when they were a monopoly. But they are not a monopoly anymore. How much will this hurt their revenue? https://t.co/i07ww09r4x
Chris Camillo on X
@ryanTesling @elliotrades worry isn’t something i do often. a rate hike is a known risk investors won’t like short term, but it changes nothing about my larger $AMZN thesis.
Ian Bezek on X
@davey_juice @ThainRos $EWZ might go lower. I don't have a strong opinion on where big components like Vale and Petrobras go, could be down more. I think $INTR and $NU will keep growing fast enough to offset macro jitters.
Chris Camillo on X
@elliotrades $AMZN
Ian Bezek on X
@davey_juice @ThainRos I own a lot of $NU and $INTR but think Lula is going to win, so that's not ideal. Flavio polls look a little better, but he's still a bad candidate. Colombia only went to Abelardo by 1 pt. Lula is incumbent, more popular than Petro, and their electorate is more leftist.
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $136M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $105M
- Alluvial Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ZEG $5B
- Hayden Capital Q2 2026 AMZN $2.8T
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.6B
- Intrepid Capital 2Q26 GOOGL $4.2T
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $80B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $45B
Veeva 2Q’26: “SaaSpocalypse” Cancelled
Veeva beat its $905 million revenue guide with $928 million, up 17.6%, while subscription growth accelerated and GAAP EBIT margin reached…
Microsoft ($MSFT) - Deep Dive
Microsoft’s AI data-center buildout lifted annual CapEx from $5.5 billion in FY2014 to $115.9 billion in FY2026, resetting free-cash-flow…
Meta Buys Away its Distraction at Minimal Cost
Meta’s $18 billion teen-addiction settlement makes $5.3 billion contingent on YouTube and TikTok adopting matching restrictions, while…
Making sense of Sandisk’s long-term financial model
Sandisk’s FY28-FY30 model relies on long-term NAND agreements holding near-80% gross-margin floors despite pricing 26-28% below current…
Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven…
The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)
Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…
Nvidia Climbing the Wall of Worries
Nvidia guided FY2028 revenue toward $700 billion, roughly 70% growth, while supply constraints and neocloud demand face concerns over…
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
Thinking aloud about Google remedies
Justice Department remedies could bar Google from using location data it cannot share, weakening targeted ads and traffic routing despite…
Sarepta Risk and the FDA
Sarepta’s Exondys 51 approval despite a 12-patient trial frames FDA regulatory risk and a call to remove Commissioner Robert Califf.
Does anyone remember when Alnylam went up 50 percent in a day on a phase three result
Alnylam’s 2022 50% phase-three gain faces FDA advisory-panel scrutiny over its amyloidosis drug’s label extension.
Purecycle and the good money after bad decision...
PureCycle’s largest shareholder, Sylebra Capital, keeps financing its delayed, over-budget plastic-recycling plant despite covenant…
We can get some extra votes. Pity they are worthless and scumbags are in charge of governance.
Campari’s five-year loyalty plan grants five votes per share, letting its controlling shareholder sell stock while retaining control and…
Too Many Cooks Spoil The Pot
Baron’s BARAX and BGAFX hold SpaceX at a $1.25 trillion valuation, creating a potential NAV uplift if its IPO prices higher.
Kazakhstan, Japan, and Trimming a Winner
Kaspi.kz’s 850 KZT ADS dividend establishes a roughly 9% yield after Hepsiburada spending; Japanese buyback disclosures test whether 0.61x…
Earnings Updates and A Software Shot in the Dark
Ategrity Specialty’s 30% premium growth, stable reserves and $50 million buyback target an undervalued, thinly traded specialty insurer.
Tis The (Earnings) Season
Argentine banks, tariff-exposed stocks and Customer’s Bancorp anchor an earnings-season watchlist after Milei’s election victory,…
Carving Up the TPU
Google’s TPUs give it vertically integrated AI training and inference economics as Anthropic and Meta consider adoption, challenging…
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Topics
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