Sunday, August 30, 2026

Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.

UWMC $2BCCOI $476M

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 27 13 clicks

Aug 27 VRRM $536M

The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)

The Oak Bloke 6 clicks

Aug 27 PRGS $1.9B

Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade

Triple S Special Situations Investing 3 clicks

From X

@ActAccordingly Jun 24 1 click

PAA Research on X

Good day for "LLOK" trades with crude collapsing, interest rates falling, and WSB retail investors bidding up $WEN and $JACK. https://t.co/NHRQkih4Y0

@BrokenMoats Jun 24

Broken Moats on X

Good to see someone paying attention on life insurers from Bloomberg today. Private Credit and certain life insurers are deeply linked - $MET, Lincoln are just the tip of the sphere I would add https://t.co/Vcyt0RFlT1 and certain regional banks like $WAL in that mix too. *and sure 95% of all your pc loans are credit grade MetLife, can I ask how many were rated by Egan Jones?*

@BrokenMoats Jun 24

Broken Moats on X

Anybody see this run in $WNC? crazy, gone from serious balance sheet risk to the fastest trade in the market. Company commented they might get to a replacement market next year (versus years of tough order books) and the commerce ruling on dumping from china that will put tariffs on Chinese suppliers (maybe 20% of the market?) should help those 27' numbers. But issues remain in what is a pretty poor business when the dominant industry player fluctuates on bankruptcy each cycle.

@psyopcapital Jun 23

Psyop Capital on X

Is contextlogic interesting/worth digging into? $LOGC. I really like the Salt acquisition but seems like they paid a rich multiple for it. Fear this will end up in the graveyard of mini-Berkshires over time

@BrokenMoats Jun 23

Broken Moats on X

Little perplexed you get more negative redemption stories around private credit, and the market only sells off the the the pure play PE companies. First derivatives are up? $MFC $FG $MET $WAL all have sizable exposure to the same asset class.....

@ActAccordingly Jun 23

PAA Research on X

FWIW, I'm pretty sure Doug Lebda of $TREE experienced a (-95%)-(-99%) drawdown in 2000, 2008, and again post COVID-19. The company was purchased by $IAC and then spun out again after the dotcom bubble burst. Of course that implies that $TREE was a 10+ bagger on two separate occasions. RIP Mr. Lebda.

@ActAccordingly Jun 22

PAA Research on X

$PRIM printed above $200 just six weeks ago. This is one violent tape.

@BrokenMoats Jun 22

Broken Moats on X

Almost a 40% spread opened up since the beginning of June (3 weeks ago!) between $MSFT and $SOXX Nearly 60% on $CRM and $SOXX... Buckle up

TPC 2026-08-27

Tutor Perini: Q2 2026 Made My Strong Buy Case Stronger

Tutor Perini’s Q2 revenue rose 19% to $1.64 billion as higher-margin megaprojects lifted construction income 54%, prompting higher 2026 EPS…

TPC $4.5B

The Curious Analyst Aug 27

$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners

El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…

ELALF $3.2B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 20 12 clicks

CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage

CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…

CCC $3.9B

scuttleblurb Aug 20 17 clicks

Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?

Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…

VRRM $536M

The Oak Bloke Aug 20 13 clicks

SA 2026-08-20

Seabridge Gold: Fairly Valued Now But Big Upside

Seabridge Gold's KSM gold-copper project could re-rate on a joint venture, 2027 feasibility study and infrastructure progress, with gold…

SA $3.5B

Redfern Research Aug 20

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $6.5B

The Oak Bloke Aug 19 13 clicks

PGY 2026-08-19

Pagaya Technologies: A Fast-Growing Industry Disruptor Trading At A P/E Of 6.6x

Pagaya Technologies reported Q2 2026 network volume of $3.54 billion, 19% revenue growth and 99% adjusted net-income growth, while trading…

PGY $1.6B

Akim Guerreiro Aug 19

Jumia

Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…

JMIA $938M

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 18 13 clicks

Why DoorDash’s Autonomous Strategy Beats Uber’s Hodgepodge

DoorDash’s integrated autonomous-delivery strategy contrasts with Uber’s 2026 divestment of Serve Robotics, its former delivery-robot…

SERV $385M

MBI Deep Dives Aug 17 4 clicks

Stock Trade Compilation Diez

E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…

MNRO $422M

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 17 9 clicks

CNR · long

Core Natural Resources INC

Core Natural Resources is a US metallurgical and thermal coal producer formed in January 2025 through the merger of CONSOL Energy and Arch…

CNR $4.5B

Value Investors Club Jun 1 1 click

RR 2026-08-29

Richtech Robotics: An Easy Pass Based On Lackluster RaaS Growth Quality

Richtech Robotics faces 9.5% revenue growth, 159% higher OPEX and a RaaS contract pipeline that fell from $6.6 million to $2.1 million.

RR $385M

Andres Veurink Aug 29 1 click

$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management

DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.

DNOW $2.8B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 14 9 clicks

Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?

Macy’s and Kohl’s face renewed short cases as their recent reratings ignore fading store-refresh gains, credit-card earnings exposure and…

M $5.8BKSS $1.9B

Bristlemoon Capital Aug 13 9 clicks

Entravision Q2 Notes

Entravision’s ATS revenue rose 230% to $182.8 million in Q2, but shares fell from above $14 to about $8 after management forecast…

EVC $727M

The Value Road Aug 11 13 clicks

$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost

UWMC booked a roughly $600 million Q2 hedging loss tied to TWO months after the deal collapsed, contributing to an expensive capital raise.

UWMC $2BTWO $1.3B

Yet Another Value Blog Aug 11 11 clicks

40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)

Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…

NAVI $855M

Capital Employed Aug 10 9 clicks

$HIMS: Paul Cerro wouldn't trust the CEO to walk his dog. He's still long. Why? | Cedar Grove

Hims & Hers investor Paul Cerro is long again on lab and patient data driving retention and LTV, despite management concerns, GLP-1…

HIMS $7.1B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 7 9 clicks

DEC-laration of independence

Diversified Energy cut $233 million of debt in 1H26, repurchased $93 million of stock and sold $273 million of land and assets while…

DEC $983M

The Oak Bloke Aug 6 7 clicks

Perimeter Solutions: 2Q26 Business Recap

Perimeter Solutions’ 2Q26 revenue rose 31%, while operating income fell 11% as USDA pricing and DLA delivery timing hurt Fire Safety; it…

PRM $4.9B

Speedwell Memos Aug 5 9 clicks

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