Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
Sunday, August 30, 2026
Back to today 
From X
Ian Bezek on X
@taobanker So they can reissue them at fire sale prices in the future to avoid bankruptcy. See American Airlines, circa 2015. $AAL https://t.co/mEfrPFACcY
marginofdanger on X
@leevalueroach $BWEL
Ian Bezek on X
@WaterworldCapi1 Copying industry best practices from $OKLO https://t.co/VnEtGXDOn0
Clark Square Capital on X
Interesting development at $GRVY https://t.co/xvjalTHgN7
SG on X
On the daily chart, $SB #sugar looks like it ran too far too fast. Zoom out though and you get a better picture of exactly how far the commodity can move in an uptrend. Staying long. https://t.co/31XQLMRcCZ
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 082920 $946MVVVNF $1.8B
- Protean Funds July 2026 STOR-B $1.7BTRUE-B $615M
- Alluvial Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ZEG $5.4BDGXX $415M
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.5BBRSL $1.9B
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter ANAB $1.6BBUR $873M
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 NE $7.1B
- RGA Investment Advisors Q2 2026 GTLB $8.2BMIPS $1B
- Southeastern Asset Management 2Q26 ACI $5.9BCNX $4.9B
TPC 2026-08-27 Tutor Perini: Q2 2026 Made My Strong Buy Case Stronger
Tutor Perini’s Q2 revenue rose 19% to $1.64 billion as higher-margin megaprojects lifted construction income 54%, prompting higher 2026 EPS…
The Curious Analyst 
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
SA 2026-08-20 Seabridge Gold: Fairly Valued Now But Big Upside
Seabridge Gold's KSM gold-copper project could re-rate on a joint venture, 2027 feasibility study and infrastructure progress, with gold…
Redfern Research 
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
PGY 2026-08-19 Pagaya Technologies: A Fast-Growing Industry Disruptor Trading At A P/E Of 6.6x
Pagaya Technologies reported Q2 2026 network volume of $3.54 billion, 19% revenue growth and 99% adjusted net-income growth, while trading…
Akim Guerreiro 
Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…
Why DoorDash’s Autonomous Strategy Beats Uber’s Hodgepodge
DoorDash’s integrated autonomous-delivery strategy contrasts with Uber’s 2026 divestment of Serve Robotics, its former delivery-robot…
Stock Trade Compilation Diez
E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…
HGV · long Hilton Grand Vacations
Hilton Grand Vacations faces an inflection point in profitability growth and free cash flow generation.
Insureco w/ Potential Strat Alts Announcement Soon + 100% Upside on Buyout ($TIPT)
Tiptree ($TIPT) is positioned around a potential Fortegra sale announcement; Fortegra generates substantially all revenue.
Hong Leong Asia: Unveiling Undervalued Gems in CYD’s Parent Company
Hong Leong Asia (SGX: H22) has 40% base-case upside, driven by its CYD stake’s data-center opportunity and Singapore-Malaysia…
Unpacking eDreams' Capital Markets Day
EDreams nears 7.25 million Prime members and €180 million of Cash EBITDA, marking its shift from an online travel agency to a…
China Yuchai: Deep Value Meets Growth (NYSE:CYD)
China Yuchai (CYD) trades at 2x EBITDA and 0.3x book as data-center backup-power demand, buybacks, and net cash support an earnings…
The Strategic Value of eDreams
EDreams’ Prime travel subscription model makes the €3.6 billion European OTA a potential Uber, Airbnb or Amazon acquisition target.
Inflecting Drone Company w/ Near-Term (+300% vs. -30%) Binary Event ($RCAT)
Red Cat’s Teal Drones is one of two remaining candidates for a $600 million to $1 billion-plus U.S.
Sarepta Risk and the FDA
Sarepta’s Exondys 51 approval despite a 12-patient trial frames FDA regulatory risk and a call to remove Commissioner Robert Califf.
Purecycle and the good money after bad decision...
PureCycle’s largest shareholder, Sylebra Capital, keeps financing its delayed, over-budget plastic-recycling plant despite covenant…
We can get some extra votes. Pity they are worthless and scumbags are in charge of governance.
Campari’s five-year loyalty plan grants five votes per share, letting its controlling shareholder sell stock while retaining control and…
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Investor letters we follow
- 1851 Capital
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