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Sunday, August 30, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

??? Two things can be true at the same time. In that you can have a slow down from weak international travel (administration) domestically, weak lower end consumer, glp, and inflation that is dragging down sales. And yet you can continue to invest in new store counts if the economics of your model are intact AND you have the balance sheet to continue to invest in your business. The competitors you cited besides macro have other issues impacting their ability to invest; PTLO has a serious balance sheet issue SG has an economic model problem... *turns out 18$ salads is a tough business*. Mcdonalds increased store openings in 2008 AND 2009 even as SSS growth was slowing every year 06-09....those investments worked out just fine because the model works. $SHAK SSS still going to print solidly positive for the year while most chains won't this year (and thats without the added store count). Shak has issues, all restaurants are tough and tough to scale and Rob and the cfo are far from Mcdonalds level of execution, but at 1x sales and a +20% restaurant margin model with 4m AUV theres a lot more room to the upside then the downside at current levels. I don't think they get to the dream target of 1500 stores, but that would be a 10x from here, whats the downside, at almost 1x current....30% maybe? I'll take that asymmetric set up. (Entered shares today)
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

Interesting the $AMZN Supply Chain Services announcement has been glossed over by competitor share price action after the initial announcement hit. $UPS has been up virtually everyday for the past 2 weeks + even though they alongside the LTL carriers like $SAIA $XPO are probably the most exposed to competitive pressures or price pressures. Trucking is being supported by heavy admin crackdowns (that will help foster inflation later this year and into next year) and AI demand in areas like flatbed. But LTL and parcel demand is lagging and has relied heavily on price in recent years to compensate for higher costs and volumes....AMZN entrance should pressure both sides for these companies especially domestic players, much less for global routes

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The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)

Verra Mobility renewed Hertz tolling management for five years. AutoKinex lets rental customers buy tolling, fuel and protection products…

VRRM $505M
The Oak Bloke 6 clicks

CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage

CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…

CCC $4B
scuttleblurb 17 clicks

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $6.5B
The Oak Bloke 13 clicks
EGO · long

Eldorado Gold CORP

Eldorado Gold (EGO) is a long-life gold and copper miner with a rare growth profile across precious and base metals.

EGO $12B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Core Memory

Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…

ABNB $90B
MBI Deep Dives 9 clicks

Walmart’s Evolution

Walmart says Medicare Maximum Fair Price rules will cut FY27 US comps by 125 basis points, while pharmacy margins and prescription volumes…

PYPL $45B
MBI Deep Dives 4 clicks

Jumia

Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…

JMIA $938M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 13 clicks

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