Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
Saturday, August 29, 2026
Back to today 
From X
Ian Bezek on X
@WaterworldCapi1 Copying industry best practices from $OKLO https://t.co/VnEtGXDOn0
Clark Square Capital on X
Interesting development at $GRVY https://t.co/xvjalTHgN7
SG on X
On the daily chart, $SB #sugar looks like it ran too far too fast. Zoom out though and you get a better picture of exactly how far the commodity can move in an uptrend. Staying long. https://t.co/31XQLMRcCZ
David Orr on X
$SOXX $NVDA down since the big beat... sure looks like a news failure event. I think it'll be electricity bottlenecks that kill the AI hardware bubble. The hyperscalers controlling that bottleneck should be the biggest winner.
SG on X
$MNTN long here. Thanks to @hedgeye for sharing this presentation and deck. https://t.co/fXrKWKpryo
SG on X
$FLR share count reduction is impressive. Another year or two at this clip could really transform the capital structure. https://t.co/H0a7syQHHb
Maj Soueidan on X
@StableBread Nice summary. Thanks for sharing. I’m somewhat excited about the new CEO hire from the competitor, $CECO, who has actually been winning data center contracts.
Maj Soueidan on X
Anyone have a direct line to $MG, call them now. We have a code red!!! https://t.co/zgvG6Ik5vi
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 082920 $946MVVVNF $1.8B
- Protean Funds July 2026 STOR-B $1.7BTRUE-B $615M
- Alluvial Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ZEG $5.4BDGXX $415M
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.5BBRSL $1.9B
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter ANAB $1.6BBUR $873M
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 NE $7.1B
- RGA Investment Advisors Q2 2026 GTLB $8.2BMIPS $1B
- Southeastern Asset Management 2Q26 ACI $5.9BCNX $4.9B
TPC 2026-08-27 Tutor Perini: Q2 2026 Made My Strong Buy Case Stronger
Tutor Perini’s Q2 revenue rose 19% to $1.64 billion as higher-margin megaprojects lifted construction income 54%, prompting higher 2026 EPS…
The Curious Analyst 
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
SA 2026-08-20 Seabridge Gold: Fairly Valued Now But Big Upside
Seabridge Gold's KSM gold-copper project could re-rate on a joint venture, 2027 feasibility study and infrastructure progress, with gold…
Redfern Research 
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
PGY 2026-08-19 Pagaya Technologies: A Fast-Growing Industry Disruptor Trading At A P/E Of 6.6x
Pagaya Technologies reported Q2 2026 network volume of $3.54 billion, 19% revenue growth and 99% adjusted net-income growth, while trading…
Akim Guerreiro 
Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…
Why DoorDash’s Autonomous Strategy Beats Uber’s Hodgepodge
DoorDash’s integrated autonomous-delivery strategy contrasts with Uber’s 2026 divestment of Serve Robotics, its former delivery-robot…
Stock Trade Compilation Diez
E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…
NEXPF · long Nexi SpA
Nexi, continental Europe’s largest merchant acquirer, is presented as a long investment using normalized EPS and EBIT that exclude…
Drilling Down on Disposal: Parallels Between Produced Water and Municipal Waste Disposal
WaterBridge and Secure trade at 10–11x 2025 EBITDA despite produced-water disposal economics resembling higher-multiple municipal waste…
The Announcement That Changes Everything
China Yuchai’s potential MGP IPO could separate its data-center and genset arm, with employee incentives tied to a listing and a proposed…
GCI Liberty: Cheap, Tax Asset, Malone Fatigue?
GCI Liberty trades cheaply, holds tax assets, and faces investor fatigue with John Malone.
Golden Dome, Quantum, Next-Gen GPS, Oh My... ($FEIM)
Frequency Electronics ($FEIM) trades at its lowest EV/EBITDA multiple since 2016 despite satellite-timing exposure to Golden Dome spending…
When extend and pretend is a virtue
Upstart says longer repayment terms lifted Q1 debt-settlement acceptances 50%, but does not disclose delinquency changes or the number of…
Hallador's "Beautiful, Clean Coal": Near Term Catalyst w/ 200% Upside ($HNRG)
Hallador Energy's Merom plant cleared a MISO review, setting up a potential data-center PPA that could transform the coal miner into a…
Comeback Season: Evolv Eyes Positive FCF, 40% ARR Growth, and Reputational Revival in '25 ($EVLV)
Evolv ($EVLV) targets positive free cash flow and 40% ARR growth in 2025 as delayed filings, an FTC resolution, and leadership changes seek…
CYD and H22 Results First Take:
CYD’s FY24 earnings miss reflected ¥200m of one-offs; adjusted net income reached roughly ¥430m and operating cash flow rose 40%.
Portfolio Updates
CYD was sold near $21 versus an $11 entry after exceeding a $19.50 target; proceeds moved to H22.SI, whose CYD stake implies $1.30 NAV and…
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