Thursday, August 27, 2026

Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.

UWMC $2.2BCCOI $515M

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 27 13 clicks

Aug 27 VRRM $445M

The Verra Sneerer (NASDAQ:VRRM)

The Oak Bloke 6 clicks

Aug 27 NVDA $5.5T

Nvidia Climbing the Wall of Worries

MBI Deep Dives 5 clicks

From X

@RagingVentures Aug 23 5 clicks

Raging Capital Ventures on X

@Cashflowfarming * $NVDA’s competitors are doing the same with their balance sheets, not customers.

@majgeoinvesting Aug 22

Maj Soueidan on X

👀 Potential $SIF InfoArb worth digging into… $RTX (Raytheon) just received a massive $22.9B, 7-year Tomahawk contract, with production targeted to ramp to 1,000+ missiles/year. What’s interesting is that Raytheon says the production ramp will “require investment across its supply chain and working with hundreds of small and midsized suppliers.” $SIF explicitly says its military-aerospace forgings are used in “Missile & Ordnance” applications. They also list Raytheon among its customers Given that Raytheon is now “looking across its supplier base to support an enormous munitions ramp,” does SIF maybe have a fighting chance here? There are probably more direct beneficiaries than SIF. But for its size, even a relatively small piece of the work could move the needle… it’s a rabbit hole worth digging into. 🔎… Time for @realLigerCub to step in :) Important caveat: I have found no evidence that SIF supplies Tomahawk, or even that its existing Raytheon relationship is tied specifically to Raytheon’s missile business.

@RagingVentures Aug 22 6 clicks

Raging Capital Ventures on X

@Ross__Hendricks @DratchCap @WarrenPies Equity is abundant even while absolute debt issuance skyrockets. I would think prudent capital allocators would tap the former… (see $GOOG, $ORCL as of late)

@RagingVentures Aug 22 7 clicks

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Jensen is clearly very smart, and I think he was wise to seed the neocloud industry ($NVDA customers) to help offset the dominance of the hyperscalers (ASIC customers). But that doesn’t change the competitive reality that he has to use $NVDA’s balance sheet to buy business… (and his customers are doing the same with their balance sheets)

@irbezek Aug 22 5 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@davey_juice @taobanker I own both. $NU seems inevitable. $INTR more execution and single-market risk but a lot more upside if it works and gets rerated.

@irbezek Aug 22 6 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@taobanker $INTR at 1.2x book 5.5x '27 earnings with a 16% ROE growing at 20% a year probably qualifies. But yes, $BLX is incredible and I still kick myself for selling most of my position at $25 after buying at $15. Grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory there.

@SowingAlphaSeed Aug 21 1 click

Farmer on X

@nkreu113r Somewhat at odds with $DXYZ up like 50% this month.

@BlueDuckCap Aug 21 4 clicks

BDC on X

@BoxLongs Wild truth is that if $SNAP chooses they can earn over $1/share in FCF next year. $5 stock.

Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade

Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.

PRGS $1.5B

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 27 3 clicks

MT 2026-08-27

ArcelorMittal: Regionalization Is Creating A Structurally Better Steel Company

ArcelorMittal’s regional steel franchises, integrated mining and India expansion are lifting EBITDA per ton and supporting per-share…

MT $47B

Capital Connoisseur Aug 27 1 click

Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question

Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.

NVDA $5.5T

MBI Deep Dives Aug 26 5 clicks

[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX

AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.

AMZN $2.7T

scuttleblurb Aug 26 6 clicks

Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns

Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling…

AMZN $2.7T

MBI Deep Dives Aug 25 3 clicks

STNE 2026-08-25

StoneCo: Deep Value Hiding Behind Brazil's Rate Fears - For Now

StoneCo's buybacks and special dividend produced roughly 39% H1 shareholder yield as Brazil's rate cuts slow and competition persists.

STNE $2.8B

IWA Research Aug 25 3 clicks

$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners

El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…

ELALF $3.5B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 20 13 clicks

CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage

CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…

CCC $3.9B

scuttleblurb Aug 20 17 clicks

TEM 2026-08-20

Tempus AI Just Had Their Entire Strategy Validated By Moderna's Vaccine Advance

Tempus AI's diagnostics and data businesses grew Q2 2026 revenue 19.4% year over year, with FDA approvals, expanded tests and pricing aimed…

TEM $12BMRNA $79B

Robert J. Lake Aug 20 2 clicks

Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?

Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…

VRRM $445M

The Oak Bloke Aug 20 13 clicks

RGLD · long

Royal Gold INC

Royal Gold, a $19 billion precious-metals royalty and streaming company, benefits from mine production without operating mines directly.

RGLD $20B

Value Investors Club May 29

RKLB 2026-08-26

Rocket Lab Is Becoming Much Bigger Than Neutron

Rocket Lab generated $234 million in Q2 revenue and built a $2.36 billion backlog, with Neutron priced at $50 million to $55 million before…

RKLB $40B

Pythia Research Aug 26 3 clicks

Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen

Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…

ADYEY $31B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 24 5 clicks

RCEL 2026-08-24

AVITA Medical: Favorable Reimbursements For Skin Wound Care

AVITA Medical’s more predictable reimbursement, RECELL GO rollout and PermeaDerm economics support adoption, with cash flow breakeven…

RCEL $415M

Myriam Alvarez Aug 24 4 clicks

Core Memory

Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…

ABNB $99B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 23 9 clicks

FUTU 2026-08-23

Futu Holdings: The China Discount Is Obsolete After Q2 Earnings Report

Futu Holdings' Q2 funded accounts rose 33.6%, client assets 43.6% and net income 41.6% as it shifts from mainland China toward Singapore,…

FUTU $15B

Emanuel Nemec Aug 23 4 clicks

The Non-linear Economics of Grocery Delivery Basket

Instacart’s larger grocery baskets create disproportionately better delivery economics than DoorDash’s, making half the basket size worth…

DASH $83B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 22 9 clicks

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $7.1B

The Oak Bloke Aug 19 13 clicks

Jumia

Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…

JMIA $866M

Triple S Special Situations Investing Aug 18 13 clicks

Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN

IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…

IREN $15B

Yet Another Value Blog Aug 18 12 clicks

Thursday, August 27, 2026

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Maj Soueidan on X

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Ian Bezek on X

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Farmer on X

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