Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
Thursday, August 27, 2026
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From X
BDC on X
From $SNAP Q2 shareholder letter: In scheme of things, the stock barely budged. How much would $META or $AMZN be up if Zuck/Jassy had said the same exact thing? Hint: they would be up many multiples of $SNAP's entire market cap. https://t.co/8QeDQq1LFy
JabroniCoin.USD on X
UBS on $CENX generating nearly $1 bn in 2026 FCF (v ~$800m consensus) Post this week, that Midwest premium looks solid for 2026… so that volume ramp should translate into higher numbers in Q3 and Q4 https://t.co/dhrEiBFWFf
Chris Camillo on X
@sp3cul8r No. Been a bit since I’ve thought deeply about the short-term risk/reward on $NVDA.
Chris Camillo on X
Too many of you are revving up to make an outsized bet on $NVDA earnings based mostly on vibes. Conviction without an information edge is just confidence dressed up as research.
mavix on X
Will be interesting to finally see the first look of the new Shelly Camera! $SLYG https://t.co/dWIQfPA150
Charles Frischer on X
@JohnTwomey16 I think the podcast speaks for itself. The FCC is trying to light all available spectrum. Likely includes the 900 MHz owned by $NN.
Charles Frischer on X
$NN. This podcast is must listening. Doesn’t mention NN by name, but amazing insights into FCC strategy under Chairman Carr. This Week: The FCC's Spectrum Pipeline with Arpan Sura - The Week with Roger | Podcast on Spotify https://t.co/tSebqMRetN
Raging Capital Ventures on X
$META prepares to launch consumer AI offerings https://t.co/cB3kWOricw
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 082920 $963MVVVNF $1.6B
- Protean Funds July 2026 EVGGF $15BNVO $168B
- Royce Investment Partners first half of 2026 AAP $2.6BBRSL $1.9B
- Intrepid Capital 2Q26 GOOGL $4.2T
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $84BIX $40B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $41BBABA $276B
- Oakmark Funds 2Q 2026 META $1.8TORCL $429B
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter 2026 ANAB $1.4BBUR $772M
Domo (Arigato), for this potential multi-bagger options trade
Domo’s $400 million sale to Progress would leave a cash-rich public shell with $900 million of NOLs; January 2028 $5 calls cost 22 cents.
MT 2026-08-27 ArcelorMittal: Regionalization Is Creating A Structurally Better Steel Company
ArcelorMittal’s regional steel franchises, integrated mining and India expansion are lifting EBITDA per ton and supporting per-share…
Capital Connoisseur 1 click
Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX
AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.
Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns
Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling…
STNE 2026-08-25 StoneCo: Deep Value Hiding Behind Brazil's Rate Fears - For Now
StoneCo's buybacks and special dividend produced roughly 39% H1 shareholder yield as Brazil's rate cuts slow and competition persists.
IWA Research 3 clicks
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
TEM 2026-08-20 Tempus AI Just Had Their Entire Strategy Validated By Moderna's Vaccine Advance
Tempus AI's diagnostics and data businesses grew Q2 2026 revenue 19.4% year over year, with FDA approvals, expanded tests and pricing aimed…
Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
RGLD · long Royal Gold INC
Royal Gold, a $19 billion precious-metals royalty and streaming company, benefits from mine production without operating mines directly.
RKLB 2026-08-26 Rocket Lab Is Becoming Much Bigger Than Neutron
Rocket Lab generated $234 million in Q2 revenue and built a $2.36 billion backlog, with Neutron priced at $50 million to $55 million before…
Pythia Research 3 clicks
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
RCEL 2026-08-24 AVITA Medical: Favorable Reimbursements For Skin Wound Care
AVITA Medical’s more predictable reimbursement, RECELL GO rollout and PermeaDerm economics support adoption, with cash flow breakeven…
Myriam Alvarez 4 clicks
Core Memory
Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…
FUTU 2026-08-23 Futu Holdings: The China Discount Is Obsolete After Q2 Earnings Report
Futu Holdings' Q2 funded accounts rose 33.6%, client assets 43.6% and net income 41.6% as it shifts from mainland China toward Singapore,…
Emanuel Nemec 4 clicks
The Non-linear Economics of Grocery Delivery Basket
Instacart’s larger grocery baskets create disproportionately better delivery economics than DoorDash’s, making half the basket size worth…
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…
Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN
IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…
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