Thursday, August 27, 2026

Late August 2026 Random Ramblings

Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.

UWMC $2.2B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 27 13 clicks

Aug 27 NVDA $5.5T

Nvidia Climbing the Wall of Worries

MBI Deep Dives 5 clicks

Aug 26 NVDA $5.5T

Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question

MBI Deep Dives 5 clicks

From X

@majgeoinvesting Aug 23

Maj Soueidan on X

@FrenchV33921 Those are the ones that hurt. Mine was $MNST when it was HANS. I owned it during their early energy drink launch days. I sold it after a quick 2x after the CEO told me, “we got this new energy drink, but we don’t know where it’s going - or if it’ll even be successful.”😂😂

@RagingVentures Aug 23 5 clicks

Raging Capital Ventures on X

@Cashflowfarming * $NVDA’s competitors are doing the same with their balance sheets, not customers.

@majgeoinvesting Aug 22

Maj Soueidan on X

👀 Potential $SIF InfoArb worth digging into… $RTX (Raytheon) just received a massive $22.9B, 7-year Tomahawk contract, with production targeted to ramp to 1,000+ missiles/year. What’s interesting is that Raytheon says the production ramp will “require investment across its supply chain and working with hundreds of small and midsized suppliers.” $SIF explicitly says its military-aerospace forgings are used in “Missile & Ordnance” applications. They also list Raytheon among its customers Given that Raytheon is now “looking across its supplier base to support an enormous munitions ramp,” does SIF maybe have a fighting chance here? There are probably more direct beneficiaries than SIF. But for its size, even a relatively small piece of the work could move the needle… it’s a rabbit hole worth digging into. 🔎… Time for @realLigerCub to step in :) Important caveat: I have found no evidence that SIF supplies Tomahawk, or even that its existing Raytheon relationship is tied specifically to Raytheon’s missile business.

@RagingVentures Aug 22 6 clicks

Raging Capital Ventures on X

@Ross__Hendricks @DratchCap @WarrenPies Equity is abundant even while absolute debt issuance skyrockets. I would think prudent capital allocators would tap the former… (see $GOOG, $ORCL as of late)

@RagingVentures Aug 22 7 clicks

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Jensen is clearly very smart, and I think he was wise to seed the neocloud industry ($NVDA customers) to help offset the dominance of the hyperscalers (ASIC customers). But that doesn’t change the competitive reality that he has to use $NVDA’s balance sheet to buy business… (and his customers are doing the same with their balance sheets)

@irbezek Aug 22 5 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@davey_juice @taobanker I own both. $NU seems inevitable. $INTR more execution and single-market risk but a lot more upside if it works and gets rerated.

@irbezek Aug 22 6 clicks

Ian Bezek on X

@taobanker $INTR at 1.2x book 5.5x '27 earnings with a 16% ROE growing at 20% a year probably qualifies. But yes, $BLX is incredible and I still kick myself for selling most of my position at $25 after buying at $15. Grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory there.

@BlueDuckCap Aug 21 4 clicks

BDC on X

@BoxLongs Wild truth is that if $SNAP chooses they can earn over $1/share in FCF next year. $5 stock.

[scuttleslops] AI Data Center Economics, ADI, INTU, IDXX

AWS AI campuses cost $40–$45 billion per gigawatt, with Trainium 3 expected to lift compute per megawatt and improve infrastructure returns.

AMZN $2.7T

scuttleblurb Aug 26 6 clicks

KMI 2026-08-26

Kinder Morgan: The Consolidation Is An Opportunity Before The Next Leg Higher

Kinder Morgan raised 2026 guidance after record Q2 results, supported by a $9.6 billion backlog and growing U.S.

KMI $72B

Steven Fiorillo Aug 26 1 click

Big Tech Off-Balance Sheet Concerns

Big Tech’s $3 trillion AI commitments are disclosed and largely long-dated, with nearly 60% of Amazon’s $650 billion commitments falling…

AMZN $2.7T

MBI Deep Dives Aug 25 3 clicks

STNE 2026-08-25

StoneCo: Deep Value Hiding Behind Brazil's Rate Fears - For Now

StoneCo's buybacks and special dividend produced roughly 39% H1 shareholder yield as Brazil's rate cuts slow and competition persists.

STNE $2.8B

IWA Research Aug 25 3 clicks

$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners

El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…

ELALF $3.5B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 20 13 clicks

CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage

CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…

CCC $3.9B

scuttleblurb Aug 20 17 clicks

TEM 2026-08-20

Tempus AI Just Had Their Entire Strategy Validated By Moderna's Vaccine Advance

Tempus AI's diagnostics and data businesses grew Q2 2026 revenue 19.4% year over year, with FDA approvals, expanded tests and pricing aimed…

TEM $12BMRNA $79B

Robert J. Lake Aug 20 2 clicks

NCLH or her grandma Saga?

Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…

NCLH $7.1B

The Oak Bloke Aug 19 13 clicks

Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN

IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…

IREN $15B

Yet Another Value Blog Aug 18 12 clicks

$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital

Nubank's 140 million customers, 20% efficiency ratio and 30% ROE frame whether its high-teens P/E reflects a scalable fintech or a maturing…

NU $74B

Yet Another Value Podcast Aug 17 9 clicks

RGLD · long

Royal Gold INC

Royal Gold, a $19 billion precious-metals royalty and streaming company, benefits from mine production without operating mines directly.

RGLD $20B

Value Investors Club May 29

Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen

Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…

ADYEY $31B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 24 5 clicks

HMY 2026-08-24

Harmony Gold Mining: A Copper Pioneer By Capitalizing On The Gold Tailwind (Reaffirming Buy)

Harmony Gold targets copper at roughly 40% of future production, diversifying gold exposure while increasing sensitivity to commodity…

HMY $10B

Prakhar Agarwal, CFA Aug 24 4 clicks

Core Memory

Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…

ABNB $99B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 23 9 clicks

FUTU 2026-08-23

Futu Holdings: The China Discount Is Obsolete After Q2 Earnings Report

Futu Holdings' Q2 funded accounts rose 33.6%, client assets 43.6% and net income 41.6% as it shifts from mainland China toward Singapore,…

FUTU $15B

Emanuel Nemec Aug 23 4 clicks

The Non-linear Economics of Grocery Delivery Basket

Instacart’s larger grocery baskets create disproportionately better delivery economics than DoorDash’s, making half the basket size worth…

DASH $83B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 22 9 clicks

NVDA 2026-08-22

Nvidia: It's All About SpaceX Now

Nvidia’s exclusive SpaceX partnership targets a 10 GW data-center buildout and could add $120 billion to $230 billion of revenue beyond…

NVDA $5.5T

Uttam Dey Aug 22 2 clicks

The $1.5 Trillion of Hidden Debt Fueling the AI Boom | Robin Wigglesworth of FT Alphaville

Hyperscalers’ off-balance-sheet lease and purchase obligations rose from roughly $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, turning the AI buildout into…

GOOGL $4.2TMETA $1.8T

The Monetary Matters Network Aug 16 10 clicks

Will Hubspot go the way of the Dodo?

HubSpot trades near its 2020 share price despite quadrupled revenue and $750 million in free cash flow, with Breeze AI upside weighed…

HUBS $12B

The Oak Bloke Aug 16 9 clicks

AI’s Achilles’ Heel: Why Everything Hinges on Anthropic & OpenAI | The Weekly Wrap

Steve Eisman argues the AI boom hinges on Anthropic and OpenAI’s importance to hyperscalers, while weighing software, CoreWeave and Cisco…

MSFT $3.9TAMZN $2.7T

Steve Eisman Aug 14 10 clicks

Thursday, August 27, 2026

Maj Soueidan on X

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Maj Soueidan on X

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Ian Bezek on X

Ian Bezek on X

BDC on X

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