Late August 2026 Random Ramblings
Higher rates could compress equity multiples and raise AI data center lease costs, while UWMC and Cogent raise questions about CEO-driven capital allocation.
Thursday, August 27, 2026
Back to today 
From X
SG on X
$SIEB partnering with @unusual_whales . Like it, and remain long (as well as a lifetime paid member of Unusual Whales). https://t.co/hr9S867egi https://t.co/uesZlSX7vr
PAA Research on X
It’s the same picture: time to get SHORT $CASY and $MUSA https://t.co/EFTszhSvv9
Maj Soueidan on X
Watching $MG closely. They had a decent year last year and given 2027/28 growth expectations, the valuation is reasonable. But things going on might offer upside surprise - either from growth initiatives or an expansion in valuation from reducing leverage.. https://t.co/w1tD7YPu2b
Ian Bezek on X
Corporacion America Airports $CAAP announces a 91 cent dividend, nearly a 4% yield on today's stock price, and 40% yield-on-cost for people that bought in 2020. The top complaint about CAAP had been it didn't pay a dividend, so that it is now resolved. ✈️
SG on X
Good article on $ADMQ. I am in and out of this illiquid stock, but currently quite long (from under .03). https://t.co/YrlnwgITXO https://t.co/LhgQOqEt6c
SG on X
$SB sugar is in full bull mode. https://t.co/NDtzQ2jbAn
SG on X
Elroy Air makes big inroads in military eVTOL, here autonomous cargo drones. $KTOS to manufacture. Going public soon via merger with $CMII / $IPXG SPAC. https://t.co/GgJ06SqbKI
Maj Soueidan on X
. @ChickenReaper did it again with $BDCO. He’s dialed in on this one. Great job with all the information arbitrage you found. https://t.co/n6fIYSh688
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $143M082920 $946M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $91MSTOR-B $1.7B
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.5BBRSL $1.9B
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter ANAB $1.6BBUR $873M
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 NE $7.1B
- RGA Investment Advisors Q2 2026 GTLB $8.2BMIPS $1B
- Southeastern Asset Management 2Q26 ACI $5.9BCNX $4.9B
- Horizon Kinetics 2nd Quarter 2026 INFL LB $6.8B
Atlas Engineered Products ($AEP.V) FINS Review
Atlas Engineered Products reported Q2 revenue up 19% to $16.2 million, but ended cashless on its credit line as inventory rose 47% and…
The Junk (Mail) Merger Arb
Star Equity’s $5 per-share Harte-Hanks acquisition offers $2.50 cash plus 0.25 STRRP per share after proration, against a $2 break price.
RCEL 2026-08-24 AVITA Medical: Favorable Reimbursements For Skin Wound Care
AVITA Medical’s more predictable reimbursement, RECELL GO rollout and PermeaDerm economics support adoption, with cash flow breakeven…
Myriam Alvarez 4 clicks
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
PTLO 2026-08-20 Portillo's: Guidance Cut Confirms It's Cheap For A Reason
Portillo's guidance cut followed a 1.2% same-restaurant-sales decline and 1.9% margin compression, while its $343 million TRA liability…
KC Research 2 clicks
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
SA 2026-08-20 Seabridge Gold: Fairly Valued Now But Big Upside
Seabridge Gold's KSM gold-copper project could re-rate on a joint venture, 2027 feasibility study and infrastructure progress, with gold…
Redfern Research 
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…
LGCY · long Legacy Education
Legacy Education operates six California campuses offering post-secondary nursing, physician assistant and surgical education.
SM 2026-08-26 SM Energy: Tailwinds From Fading Hedge Drag And Strong Oil Leverage
SM Energy's Civitas acquisition doubled acreage and production, while underwater oil hedges depress cash flow through 2026 before rolling…
Elliott Gue 
Why DoorDash’s Autonomous Strategy Beats Uber’s Hodgepodge
DoorDash’s integrated autonomous-delivery strategy contrasts with Uber’s 2026 divestment of Serve Robotics, its former delivery-robot…
Stock Trade Compilation Diez
E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…
$DNOW: the boring distributor that could double on 2029 numbers | Firebird Management
DNOW’s MRC Global merger targets $75 million of synergies, with a 2029 bull case of $30 to $32 per share driven by cash flow and rerating.
Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?
Macy’s and Kohl’s face renewed short cases as their recent reratings ignore fading store-refresh gains, credit-card earnings exposure and…
Entravision Q2 Notes
Entravision’s ATS revenue rose 230% to $182.8 million in Q2, but shares fell from above $14 to about $8 after management forecast…
$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost
UWMC booked a roughly $600 million Q2 hedging loss tied to TWO months after the deal collapsed, contributing to an expensive capital raise.
40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)
Navient trades near 40% of tangible book as Gator Financial Partners argues private student-loan growth and restructuring can reverse its…
$HIMS: Paul Cerro wouldn't trust the CEO to walk his dog. He's still long. Why? | Cedar Grove
Hims & Hers investor Paul Cerro is long again on lab and patient data driving retention and LTV, despite management concerns, GLP-1…
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SG
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Investor letters we follow
- 1851 Capital
- Aikya Investment Management
- Akre Capital Management, LLC
- Alluvial Capital Management
- Alpinum Investment Management AG
- Ariel Investments
- Artisan Partners
- Askeladden Capital
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- Pershing Square Holdings
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- Sequoia Fund
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