Nvidia’s Long-Term Margin Question
Nvidia faces questions over the durability of its long-term profit margins ahead of earnings.
Wednesday, August 26, 2026
Back to today 
From X
catechwilliams on X
$NX 5% of COGS/ direct input costs sourced from China. Tariffs + zero pricing power, high fixed cost structure + only 30% GMs = 25-30% hit to EBIT. Add 4x leverage, declining volumes, ambitious mgmt guidance while integrating a large acquisition is a setup for a trainwreck.
catechwilliams on X
$AVO calling out the fact that they have been overearning and margins reverting. “experienced normalization of our per unit avocado margins during in Q1.” Noted weak harvest anticipated in Mexcico. $CVGW will be even more adversely impacted by these factors.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT CEO departing, new high-quality CFO (temp) w very attractive secular tailwinds in digital display demand + activist involvement = increased likelihood of takeout. Optimal business for PE. Multiple logical strategics. +75% upside.
catechwilliams on X
$FTDR Vol declining (existing home sales=driver). Pricing lagging inflation, massively over-earning. Problematic given 25% churn w aggressive new entrants. Dubious company overall. Investor day yesterday was comical, compared themselves to $NFLX. Earnings misses coming.
catechwilliams on X
$AVO $CVGW 1) Retailers $CMG, etc sourcing elsewhere given MX tariff risk. 2) Avocado price spike during last year’s peak harvest season enabled distributors to realize outsized margins. 1-time benefit has reversed, significant earnings misses ahead for these commodity businesses
catechwilliams on X
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
catechwilliams on X
$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 082920 $821MVVVNF $1.6B
- Protean Funds July 2026 EVGGF $15BNVO $168B
- Royce Investment Partners first half of 2026 AAP $2.6BBRSL $1.8B
- Intrepid Capital 2Q26 GOOGL $4.3T
- Polaris Capital Management Second Quarter 2026 ENI $87BIX $40B
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 032830 $41BBABA $276B
- Oakmark Funds 2Q 2026 META $1.8TORCL $429B
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter 2026 ANAB $1.4BBUR $764M
STNE 2026-08-25 StoneCo: Deep Value Hiding Behind Brazil's Rate Fears - For Now
StoneCo's buybacks and special dividend produced roughly 39% H1 shareholder yield as Brazil's rate cuts slow and competition persists.
IWA Research 3 clicks
Stripe’s “Singularity” and the Divergence from Adyen
Stripe’s net revenue rose 41% in 1H 2026 versus Adyen’s 21% FX-adjusted growth, fueled by AI-native startups and acquisitions including…
$ELAL: El Al is a wartime monopoly at 2x EBITDA. Is that a trap? | ASB Partners
El Al trades near 2x EBITDA after wartime near-monopoly profits, with $1.3 billion of net cash and owned aircraft weighed against…
CCC Is in the Middle of the Wreckage
CCC, the dominant auto physical-damage claims estimator, connects 27 of the top 30 insurers with 31,000 repair shops as takeout rumors…
TEM 2026-08-20 Tempus AI Just Had Their Entire Strategy Validated By Moderna's Vaccine Advance
Tempus AI's diagnostics and data businesses grew Q2 2026 revenue 19.4% year over year, with FDA approvals, expanded tests and pricing aimed…
Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
Verra Mobility's new seven-year Avis agreement replaces a customer worth over 10% of revenue on materially worse economics, exposing…
BHP 2026-08-20 BHP: Stop Calling This An Iron Ore Stock
BHP expects copper to generate over half of FY2026 EBITDA and plans a 40% production increase by FY2035 after profit, free cash flow and…
On the Pulse 1 click
NCLH or her grandma Saga?
Norwegian Cruise Line’s $15 billion debt and 2026-27 capex delay deleveraging, despite fuel-efficient new ships and stronger projected 2028…
Jumia
Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…
Shitcos, Griftcos, and alignment versus enrichment at $IREN
IREN awarded each co-CEO roughly 9 million RSUs, about 2.5% of shares and $400 million, in exchange for no further equity grants until…
ANET · long Arista Networks INC
Arista Networks, at about $150 per share, is a $190 billion data-center networking franchise generating $9.7 billion of LTM revenue with…
SBLK 2026-08-25 Star Bulk Carriers: You Don't Need The Record Quarter
Star Bulk Carriers operates 138 dry-bulk vessels with sector-low breakeven costs and a 100% payout policy yielding 10.5%, supported by…
Kevin Avroutskii 3 clicks
Core Memory
Airbnb Experiences faces a supply bottleneck from manual approvals, while a farm host raised her price from $15 to $25 after stronger…
FUTU 2026-08-23 Futu Holdings: The China Discount Is Obsolete After Q2 Earnings Report
Futu Holdings' Q2 funded accounts rose 33.6%, client assets 43.6% and net income 41.6% as it shifts from mainland China toward Singapore,…
Emanuel Nemec 4 clicks
The Non-linear Economics of Grocery Delivery Basket
Instacart’s larger grocery baskets create disproportionately better delivery economics than DoorDash’s, making half the basket size worth…
NVDA 2026-08-22 Nvidia: It's All About SpaceX Now
Nvidia’s exclusive SpaceX partnership targets a 10 GW data-center buildout and could add $120 billion to $230 billion of revenue beyond…
Uttam Dey 2 clicks
Walmart’s Evolution
Walmart says Medicare Maximum Fair Price rules will cut FY27 US comps by 125 basis points, while pharmacy margins and prescription volumes…
$NU: is Nubank Capital One in 1994 or Capital One in 2006? | Vanshap Capital
Nubank's 140 million customers, 20% efficiency ratio and 30% ROE frame whether its high-teens P/E reflects a scalable fintech or a maturing…
Stock Trade Compilation Diez
E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…
The $1.5 Trillion of Hidden Debt Fueling the AI Boom | Robin Wigglesworth of FT Alphaville
Hyperscalers’ off-balance-sheet lease and purchase obligations rose from roughly $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, turning the AI buildout into…
Publications we follow
Every publication on this site, hand-picked.
Newsletters 106
- 310 Value’s Newsletter
- Absurdly Cheap Stocks
- Altay Capital - Mostly Value Investing
- AmsterdamStocks
- Aurelion Research
- Base Hit Investing
- Bearhold Research
- Bearstone
- Behind the Balance Sheet
- Best Anchor Stocks
- Bilbel's Substack
- Bison Insights
- Brevarthan Research
- Bristlemoon Capital
- Byron Street Research
- Calvin Blissett
- Cannibal Stocks
- Capital Employed
- Capitalist Letters
- Cassandra Unchained
- Chipstrat
- Citrini Research
- Cluseau Research
- CV's Substack
- D Invests
- Daniel Romero
- Deep Value Insights
- Dismissed & Asset-Backed
- Doomberg
- Eagle Point Capital
- Easy Value
- Emerging Moats Research
- Exploring with Alluvial Capital
- Fabricated Knowledge
- First Strike Research
- Flyover Stocks
- Global Outperformers
- Glocal Investor
- Guardian Research
- Hated Moats
- Healthy Stock Picks
- HFI Research
- Hidden Gems Investing
- Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter
- Ian’s Insider Corner
- Iggy on Investing Newsletter
- Inglenook Growth
- Invariant
- Invested Capital
- Investing 501
- Irrational Analysis
- Jimmy's Journal
- John Hempton's Newsletter
- Kairos Research
- Kakashii's Materials
- Key Context by Tae Kim
- Latticework by MOI Global
- Lewistown Capital
- Librarian Capital's Research Library
- Maius Partners
- MBI Deep Dives
- Mispriced Assets
- Modern Value Investing
- Monte Independent Investment Research
- Multibagger Monitor
- Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter
- Net Interest
- Nongaap Investing
- Nugget Capital Partner's Substack
- Obscure Stocks
- Open Insights
- Overlooked Alpha
- P Equity Research
- PETITION
- Phynvesting
- Raging Bull Investments
- Real Assets, Real Value
- Rebound Capital
- Rod’s Ruminations
- ROE The Boat
- scuttleblurb
- Sector Stories
- SemiAnalysis
- Singularity Research
- SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets
- Sleep Well Investments
- Speedwell Memos
- Stock Thoughts
- Substack von Philipp
- Sunday's Idea Brunch
- Sylence Capital
- The Curious Compounder
- The Mikro Kap
- The Oak Bloke
- The Rational Walk
- The Value Road
- Trade Ideas Flow
- Treasure Hunting
- Triple S Special Situations Investing
- TSOH Investment Research
- Underlying Value
- Value Don't Lie
- Vik's Newsletter
- WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate”
- XIX Value
- Yet Another Value Blog
Blogs 17
- Asian Century Stocks
- Atrium Research - Equity Research
- Bireme Capital - Investor Letters
- Cestrian Capital Research
- Choice Equities Capital Management
- Clark Street Value
- Crossroads Capital | Research-driven, Value-centric
- Hunterbrook
- Kerrisdale Capital
- NoNameStocks
- Raging Capital
- Research - Alta Fox Capital
- Speedwell Research
- Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology.
- The Technology Letter
- Undervalued Shares
- Value Investors Club
Seeking Alpha 46 of 223
Albert Anthony
Andres Veurink
Bay Area Ideas
Capital Connoisseur
David Zanoni
Deep Value Investing
Dhierin Bechai
Equity Eagle
Eudaemon Research
Fernanda Galvez Jalil
Henrik Alex
High Alpha Professor
Investor Overview- IWA Research
Jaden Mealy
Khaveen Investments
LL Insights
Long Player
Marc Gerstein
Melissa Tucker
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT
Miletus Research
Myriam Alvarez
Petri Dish Reports
Philip Wang
Prakhar Agarwal, CFA
PV Research
Quantryon Capital
Robert J. Lake
Ron Ferrie
Sam Mancini
Sharon McArd
SiliconBytes Insights
Simple Investment Ideas
Sorrento Research
Stephen Ayers
Steven Fiorillo
The Alpha Analyst
The Asian Investor
The Bullionaire
The Curious Analyst
The J Thesis
The Supercycle Investor
The Undercovered Dozen
Value Capital Research
Vishal Jadaun
X accounts we follow
Every account on this site, hand-picked.
⚽️📡
💥PETITION💥
A Capital
absreturnchaser
Adam D. Wyden
Alpha Vulture
AltayCap
Asif Suria
Bank Reg Blog
Barbarian Capital
BDC
Bill Ackman
Brian McGough
Broken Moats
BuccoCapital Bloke
Calvin Blissett
catechwilliams
Charles Frischer
Chris Camillo
Clark Square Capital
Cluseau Investments
Colin King
Connor Haley
Conor Maguire | Value Situations
Convequity
Dalius - Special Sits
David Orr
Deep Sail Capital
Derek Pilecki
Devin LaSarre
DOMO Capital Management, LLC
Edwin Dorsey
Evan Tindell
Fajasy
Farmer
Fierce_beast
Fred Liu
Gavin Baker
Ian Bezek
Idea Brunch
JabroniCoin.USD
John_Hempton
junkbondinvestor
kab60
KEDM.com
Kevin Mak
Kuppy
Laughing Water Capital
Lee Roach
Little Owl Research
Maius
Maj Soueidan
marginofdanger
mavix
Mike
Mikro Kap David
Multiples Capital
Myles
Nat Stewart
Negligible Capital
Odd Diligence
Odd Lot Arbitrageur
PAA Research
Paradis
Pernas Research
Porter Collins
Prepared Remarks
Psyop Capital
Raging Capital Ventures
Red Dog Capital- RiverRoadPartners
Rusholme Capital
Sahil Khetpal
Serenity
SG
Sheel Mohnot
Tim Eriksen
Timyan Bank Alert
Todd Wenning
ToffCap
Trevor Scott
Undiscovered Compounders
Voss Capital
Yaron Naymark
Investor letters we follow
- 1 Main Capital
- 1851 Capital
- Advisory Research
- Aegis Value Fund
- Aikya Investment Management
- Akre Capital Management, LLC
- Alluvial Capital Management
- Alpine Capital Research
- Alpinum Investment Management AG
- Andrew Hill Investment Advisors
- Andvari Associates
- Angel Oak Capital Advisors
- Ariel Investments
- Aristotle Funds
- Artisan Partners
- Askeladden Capital
- Asset Value Investors Ltd
- Auxier Asset Management
- Azvalor Asset Management
- Baird Equity Asset Management
- Baron Funds
- Berkshire Hathaway
- Biglari Holdings
- Bireme Capital
- BlackRock
- Blue Tower Asset Management
- Brasada Capital
- Bretton Fund
- Brighton Jones
- Bristlemoon Capital
- Broadleaf Partners
- Broyhill Asset Management
- ByteTree
- Cambiar Investors
- Cantor Fitzgerald Asset Management
- Cedar Creek Partners
- Cedar Grove Capital Management
- Chautauqua Capital Management
- Chilton Capital Management
- Choice Equities
- Claret Asset Management
- Comus Investment
- Conestoga Capital Advisors
- Confluence Investment Management
- CrossingBridge Advisors
- Crossroads Capital, LLC
- Curreen Capital
- Davenport Asset Management
- Davis Advisors Global ADR
- Davis Advisors Large Cap Value
- Davis Opportunity Fund
- Davis Real Estate Fund
- Diranko Capital
- Distillate Capital
- Dodge & Cox Stock Fund
- DoubleLine
- East 72
- Easterly Asset Management
- EdgePoint Wealth Management
- Evolve Private Wealth
- FPA Crescent Fund
- Fairlight Capital
- Fairtree Asset Management
- Fenimore Asset Management
- Fiduciary Management
- Fiera Capital
- Financial Synergies Wealth Advisors
- First Eagle Investments
- Forager Funds Management
- Frank Capital Partners
- Fred Alger Management, LLC
- Gabelli Funds
- Giverny Capital
- GoodHaven Capital Management
- Grandeur Peak Global Advisors
- GreenWood Investors
- Greenhaven Road Capital
- GreensKeeper Asset Management
- Greenwood Gearhart
- Grey Owl Capital Management
- Guinness Global Investors
- Halvio Capital
- Harding Loevner
- Harry Qelm Baabsman
- Hayden Capital
- Heartland Advisors
- Highwood Value Partners
- Hinde Group
- Hoisington Investment Management
- Hood River Capital Management
- Horizon Kinetics
- Hosking Partners
- Infuse Asset Management
- Intrepid Capital
- Invenomic Capital Management
- JM Finn
- Janus Henderson Investors
- Jemekk Capital Management
- Kathmandu Capital
- Kaydan Wealth Management
- Kennedy Capital Management
- Kernow Asset Management
- Kingdom Capital Advisors
- LVS Advisory
- Langdon Equity Partners
- Lansing Street Advisors
- Latitude Investment Management
- Laughing Water Capital
- Leonard Rickey Investment Advisors
- Lindsell Train Limited
- Long Cast Advisers
- Lyrical Asset Management
- Mar Vista Investment Partners
- Maran Capital Management
- Markel Group
- Marram Investment Management
- Massif Capital
- Matrix Asset Advisors
- Matthews Asia
- McIntyre Partnerships
- Merion Road Capital
- Miller Value Partners
- Moon Capital Management
- Muhlenkamp & Company
- Myrmikan Capital, LLC
- Nelnet
- Next Century Growth Investors
- Night Watch Investment Management
- Nightview Capital
- Nixon Capital
- North Sky Capital
- O'Keefe Stevens Advisory
- Oakmark Funds
- Oldfield Partners
- Ophir Asset Management
- Optimist Fund
- Orange Investment Advisors
- Palm Harbour Capital
- Palm Valley Capital
- Patient Capital Management
- Peapack Private
- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V.
- PenderFund Capital Management Ltd.
- Pershing Square Holdings
- Pittenger & Anderson
- Polaris Capital Management
- Polen Capital 5Perspectives Growth Opportunities
- Polen Capital U.S. Opportunistic High Yield
- Praetorian Capital
- Protean Funds
- QuantStreet Capital
- Quercus Fund
- RF Capital Management
- RGA Investment Advisors
- Regency Wealth Management
- Rewey Asset Management
- Right Tail Capital
- RiverPark Funds
- Riverwater Partners
- Robinson Capital Management
- Rowan Street Capital
- Royce Investment Partners
- Saga Partners
- SaltLight Capital
- Sequoia Fund
- Shelton Capital Management
- Smead Capital Management
- Sound Shore Management
- Southeastern Asset Management
- SouthernSun Asset Management
- Stone Sentinel Capital
- Stonehearth Capital Management
- Summers Value Partners
- Sustainable Growth Advisers
- TIFF Investment Management
- The London Company
- Third Avenue Management
- Troy Asset Management
- Tweedy, Browne
- Upslope Capital Management
- Vision Capital Fund
- Vltava Fund
- Vulcan Value Partners
- Warden Capital
- Wealthspire Advisors
- Wedgewood Partners
- Weitz Investment Management
- White Brook Capital
- White Falcon Capital Management
Sectors
Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.
