Atlas Engineered Products ($AEP.V) FINS Review
Atlas Engineered Products reported Q2 revenue up 19% to $16.2 million, but ended cashless on its credit line as inventory rose 47% and year-to-date losses widened.
Wednesday, August 26, 2026
Back to today 
From X
catechwilliams on X
$NX 5% of COGS/ direct input costs sourced from China. Tariffs + zero pricing power, high fixed cost structure + only 30% GMs = 25-30% hit to EBIT. Add 4x leverage, declining volumes, ambitious mgmt guidance while integrating a large acquisition is a setup for a trainwreck.
catechwilliams on X
$AVO calling out the fact that they have been overearning and margins reverting. “experienced normalization of our per unit avocado margins during in Q1.” Noted weak harvest anticipated in Mexcico. $CVGW will be even more adversely impacted by these factors.
catechwilliams on X
$DAKT CEO departing, new high-quality CFO (temp) w very attractive secular tailwinds in digital display demand + activist involvement = increased likelihood of takeout. Optimal business for PE. Multiple logical strategics. +75% upside.
catechwilliams on X
$FTDR Vol declining (existing home sales=driver). Pricing lagging inflation, massively over-earning. Problematic given 25% churn w aggressive new entrants. Dubious company overall. Investor day yesterday was comical, compared themselves to $NFLX. Earnings misses coming.
catechwilliams on X
$AVO $CVGW 1) Retailers $CMG, etc sourcing elsewhere given MX tariff risk. 2) Avocado price spike during last year’s peak harvest season enabled distributors to realize outsized margins. 1-time benefit has reversed, significant earnings misses ahead for these commodity businesses
catechwilliams on X
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
catechwilliams on X
$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.
catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
Investor Letters
All letters- Palm Harbour Capital July 2026 064850 $164M082920 $910M
- Protean Funds July 2026 DVYSR $90MSTOR-B $1.7B
- Royce Investment Partners Year-to-Date Through 6/30/26 AAP $2.6BBRSL $1.8B
- Greenhaven Road Capital second quarter ANAB $1.5BBUR $794M
- First Eagle Investments second quarter 2026 NE $7B
- RGA Investment Advisors Q2 2026 GTLB $8.2BMIPS $1B
- Southeastern Asset Management 2Q26 ACI $5.8BCNX $4.9B
- Horizon Kinetics 2nd Quarter 2026 INFL LB $6.4B
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Aloe Aloe Aloe what 'ave VERRA then?
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Redfern Research 
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Jumia
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Why DoorDash’s Autonomous Strategy Beats Uber’s Hodgepodge
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Equity Eagle 3 clicks
Are Department Stores Finally Shortable?
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Entravision Q2 Notes
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$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost
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40 Stock Pitches (3rd-9th August)
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My Pitch Deck Slide Show from the MS Microcaps Summer Virtual Conference
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Deep Sail Capital
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Fierce_beast
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marginofdanger
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SG
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Investor letters we follow
- 1851 Capital
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