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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $16B

CV's Substack 4h ago 2 clicks

9h ago COHR $52B

Expert Call | Q3 2026 Optical Components Market Dynamics, Vendor Market Share, & 2027 Growth Outlook

P Equity Research 3 clicks

22h ago SIRI $9B

SiriusXM: Dirt Cheap, Looming Catalysts, Short Squeeze Candidate

Eagle Point Capital 11 clicks

From X

@orrdavid Oct 2

David Orr on X

Google $GOOG Key bear argument: Search is their largest business and likely faces a long term headwind instead of long term tailwind. At least probably, since they are doing a good job incoperating fast AI responses into search. Android (and iOS and Windows) are threatened. The work culture is weak (but seems to be improving). Key bull argument: Most of their other businesses are good/great and growing. A couple are big AI winners. TPUs in particular are a likely key AI ingredient if either/both inference and electricity efficiency matter a lot (I think yes to both). YouTube is a big AI winner. Cloud/compute biz wins from AI, deals are structured in a way with no downside for $GOOG (but plenty of downside for the companies locking into the contracts). Management are fantastic capital allocators.

@DeepSailCapital Oct 2 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

On a relative basis verse AI buildout peers $VRT has come in a lot over the last 6 months. 23x NTM EBITDA vs almost 40x at the peak. Part of that is 6 months of roll forward but still starting to get back to a reasonable valuation.

@hntrbrkmedia Oct 2

Hunterbrook on X

Based on Hunterbrook Media’s reporting, at the time of publication Hunterbrook Capital is short $MRP, short $LEN, and long a basket of comparable securities. Positions may change at any time. This article is not investment advice or any recommendation. See full disclosures below.

@hntrbrkmedia Oct 2

Hunterbrook on X

Lennar is struggling to sell houses. So it found a buyer it knows well: Millrose, the REIT it spun off last year. We identified 700+ homes, roughly $200 million, sold to Millrose in about a month. $LEN $MRP https://t.co/CDD6NZ5Y2i

@red_dog_capital Oct 2 1 click

Red Dog Capital on X

$STK $WDC The cure for high prices is high prices! Demand destruction, substitution, capacity additions, etc. The invisible hand (almost) never fails!

@TidefallCapital Oct 2

Trevor Scott on X

@the_zack_zhu isn't $U skimming this model data here now?

@DeepSailCapital Oct 2

Deep Sail Capital on X

$META Muse is really awesome. Digital personal assistant for no cost. They really nailed the agenetic flow verse that Anthropic or ChatGPT offer.

@pitdesi Oct 2 1 click

Sheel Mohnot on X

I trimmed an $NVDA position yesterday that I’ve held since 2017 and already have extreme seller’s remorse that I did something dumb Moved 1/4 of the position into an exchange fund, the remainder is ~15% of my liquid portfolio.

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Read past recaps

Meritage Homes: Cheaper On Book Than Any Year-End In A Decade

MTH $3.7B

Tim Travis 22h ago

Market Cracks Under AI Debt Burden | The Weekly Wrap

Steve Eisman examines AI data-center debt, CoreWeave's tech correction and agentic AI's effect on banks as earnings season begins.

CRWV $34BBAC $377B

Steve Eisman 35h ago 12 clicks

RELX: The Risk Segment Makes This Buy Less Risky

RELX’s 13-petabyte fraud and identity data moat supports its high-margin Risk segment as its valuation falls to roughly half its peak P/E.

RELX $64B

LA Capital 34h ago

OpenAI Does Math, Reward Hacking, Meta Launches Personal Agent

OpenAI and Meta push AI agents forward as reward hacking remains a core challenge for model training.

META $1.9T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 37h ago 5 clicks

One More Note on Agents, Meta Connect, Meta Enterprise Platform

Meta ties AI agents and Meta Connect to its enterprise-platform opportunity.

META $1.9T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 37h ago 11 clicks

2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 37h ago 3 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

NFLX $511B

TSOH Investment Research 41h ago 9 clicks

Liberty Global: Things Got Much Worse, But I Am Still Greedy

Liberty Global faces VMO2 restructuring-priced bonds and Ziggo unsecured yields near 16% after owners extracted £5.15 billion since 2021.

LBTYA $2.8B

Andrew Mach 42h ago 1 click

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Oct 15 51 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $6.8B

Atrium Research - Equity Research Oct 15 6 clicks

LLY · long

LILLY (ELI) & CO

Eli Lilly trades at 33 times this year’s earnings and 26 times next year’s, versus roughly 12 times for big pharma peers.

LLY $1.2T

Value Investors Club Jul 18 1 click

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $9.2B

CV's Substack Oct 15 16 clicks

ASML Is Building a Hybrid Bonding Tool!

ASML’s patent filings point to a track-based die-to-wafer hybrid bonding tool that could challenge Besi in advanced logic packaging.

ASML $631B

SemiAnalysis Oct 15 11 clicks

CoreWeave: Why Credit Markets See A 54% Chance Of Default

CoreWeave’s 2032 notes yield over 15%, signaling a 54% default probability as borrowing costs exceed rental yields on AI infrastructure…

CRWV $34B

Dustin Quasney Oct 15 22 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B

Speedwell Research Oct 15 25 clicks

ASML 3Q’26: 2030 Arrived Four Years Early

ASML reported €11.7 billion in 3Q 2026 sales, up 55%, and raised full-year guidance to €44–45 billion as AI-driven semiconductor demand…

ASML $631B

MBI Deep Dives Oct 15 11 clicks

Berkshire B: Holding, Developing Headwinds Have Yet To Reflect In Stock Price, In My View

Berkshire Hathaway trades at 1.46 times book as reinsurance pricing pressure, softer P&C, concentrated equities and cash weigh on its…

BRK.A $1.1T

Pearl Gray Equity and Research Oct 15 3 clicks

[scuttleslops] MRVL, APP, AMZN, Chips

Marvell is positioning networking, optical connectivity and server-management chips as AI data centers link GPUs, custom accelerators and…

MRVL $208B

scuttleblurb Oct 15 12 clicks

AeroVironment: The Value Is There, Growth Will Force The Market To Notice

AeroVironment's $465M LOCUST laser award and earnings beat support its 2027 growth outlook despite government budget uncertainty.

AVAV $6.2B

Melissa Tucker Oct 15 6 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 15 27 clicks

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