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Friday, October 16, 2026· 2002 stock ideas· 217 writers·
16,971 views· 7,853 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store openings.

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@kevin__mak

Kevin Mak on X

$ABVX We've been here before, about three months ago. Price is controlling the narrative again. In June people extrapolated a handful of malignancy cases into a broken thesis, the stock fell 43%, and then erased a month of losses in a single day when the next data landed. Nothing about the asset changed in either direction. I think the same thing is happening now. The price is lower, so people have decided shareholders are doomed and nobody is ever going to buy the business. The fair argument against me is that the probability of a takeout has fallen, because it hasn't happened yet. List your house, get no bids in 60 days, and that tells you something about your asking price. Silence is information. But big pharma M&A is a market with half a dozen real buyers, competing priorities, and internal politics. Deals come together in weeks or in years. The signal from "no deal yet" is extremely noisy, and people are treating it as a clean efficient market. I think the bigger problem is what shareholders were assuming in the first place. If you expected a $180-200 takeout within three months, at today's price that is a 78% return in a quarter. Call it 50/50 to be "conservative" and you are still assuming roughly 39% a quarter or 270% annualized. (Change the numbers to levels a month ago and you still get the same directional craziness) So the problem was never the price target. Targets have a defensible basis. The problem is the clock. My view: $150-200 over the next 18 months, either from a buyout or from a credible launch trajectory. From here that is 25-50% annualized, which is a number a portfolio can be built on. Roughly the same price everyone else is talking about. I just don't have the same timeline expectation. If a buyout comes sooner, that is the better outcome, not just the faster one. The asset is worth more inside a company that already has a GI salesforce than it is standalone. Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds hold a long position in ABVX. Views expressed are current opinions for informational and educational purposes only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results. See the disclosures link in bio for more important information.

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