Sunday, November 15, 2026

@StableBread 1h ago

Fajasy on X

Six stocks I’m still following filed Q3 numbers: → $QXO: Operating cash flow was only ~$1M in Q3, down from $213M a year ago. → Boost Run $BRUN: Says it has secured $600M of non-dilutive project financing, but a Georgia delay leaves year-end ARR near my bear case. → Reviva $RVPH: Valued at 26.5% of its cash, but needs $50-55M for its second Phase 3 trial and FDA filing. → DigiPowerX $DGXX: ~$30M short of its ~$350M 2027 capex plan, even counting the $200M loan it hasn’t closed yet. → Agility Robotics $AGLT: Down 36.1% from its first-day close, with a little over two years of cash. → FORT Robotics’ SPAC $NTWO: 82% redeemed, and its price implies 36.7x FORT’s TTM revenue. So did the quarter change my call on any of the six? That’s what I answer in my new Q3 update, including whether I’m buying, selling, or holding each name.

@DevinLaSarre 3h ago

Devin LaSarre on X

Newest out. Haypp Group: Doors and Floors $HAYPP $PM $BTI $MO $IMBBY $STG

@ClarkSquareCap 3h ago

Clark Square Capital on X

Very solid quarter for $GRVY

@calvinblissett 6h ago

Calvin Blissett on X

Passed on: - $TK: screens at net cash ≈ market cap, but that cash is TNK's. Parent cash plus its TNK stake is ~$1.01B vs a ~$1.23B market cap. Buy TNK directly. - $DFIN: ran to $68, and the SEC's semiannual-reporting proposal hits filing volume. - $RICK: NY AG indictment, CEO and CFO out. - $BAER: ~$15M of equity under ~$650M of debt and preferred. - $CMRE / $DAC: big backlogs, but contracted net earnings don't cover EV yet. - $MATW, $ACTG, $ARKR, $CVEO: FCF or leverage. - $GRND: not cheap.

@StableBread 6h ago

Fajasy on X

Read my full $AWMLF update, including what I’m watching next, here:

@StableBread 6h ago

Fajasy on X

I revalued American West Metals $AWMLF after the new pre-feasibility study (PFS) for its Storm copper project in Arctic Canada, which replaced a first-pass preliminary economic assessment (PEA). At AUD$0.029, $AWMLF’s market cap is ~US$24.6M on 1,229.6M shares, with no new shares since my August write-up. Its EV is ~US$29.2M, measured as in August (US$24.6M market cap + US$8.4M Taurus royalty liability − US$3.8M of cash). In August, I valued Storm at 0.2-0.3x $AWMLF’s share of the PEA NPV after the Taurus royalty (~US$110M), for US$22-33M. The PFS already deducts the royalty, so $AWMLF’s 80% of the US$119M base case is ~US$95M, or US$19-29M on the same multiple. Today’s ~US$29.2M EV is just above the US$19-29M range, which leaves at most ~US$10M of the EV for West Desert, its zinc-indium deposit in Utah. I’m keeping the 0.2-0.3x even with a maiden reserve, since (1) the part of the build Ocean Partners’ US$40M loan doesn’t cover tripled to US$68.3M, and (2) the higher copper price holds up the NPV. At the PEA’s US$4.60/lb, $AWMLF’s share would be ~US$41M, worth just US$8-12M at the same multiple. At spot copper, the same 0.2-0.3x of $AWMLF’s ~US$186M share is US$37-56M. At AUD$0.025, the price my bull case assumes for the next placement (a stock sale to selected investors), $AWMLF’s EV would be ~0.27x its share of Storm’s NPV, within my 0.2-0.3x range. In August, my worst case was the WD26 assays (from West Desert’s 2026 drill holes) disappointing, the PFS coming back with higher capex or weaker recoveries, and the next raise pricing at a discount instead of a premium. The PFS came back with the higher capex I flagged, the next placement will almost certainly price below the AUD$0.045 of the last two, and the assays are still pending. So I’d still put the odds of losing half or more over the next 12 months at about 1/3, which from US$0.020 means US$0.010 or lower. My August bull case (Storm at 0.4-0.5x plus US$15-25M for West Desert) now requires the DFS (the next, more detailed study) to hold the PFS’s economics and the WD26 assays to confirm the visual logs. The bull case supports US$53-73M of market value. On ~1,630M shares after an AUD$10M placement at AUD$0.025, the bull case is worth US$0.033-0.045/share, down from US$0.043-0.057 in August, when I expected the next raise to price higher (~1,400M shares after the raise). So from US$0.020/share, you’re risking a US$0.010 loss (-50%) in the worst case for a US$0.013-0.025 gain (+63% to +123%) in the bull case, before any U.S. government funding for West Desert, which none of my cases counts.

@hkuppy 7h ago

Kuppy on X

@orrdavid It isnt gonna. Hence why enrollment at $LINC and $UTI is ramping. We’re still so early innings…

@Adam_Wyden 18h ago

Adam D. Wyden on X

@ACapitalLP Funny thing is.. just removing the manager / reducing corp prob yields the highest value. CJS is showing 382 of ebitda in 27 w 7 mm of mgmt fee on top… 389. If corp was 15 and consolidated was 374…that’s 200 mm or 2.65 of FCF GROWING ALOT… maybe that’s a mid 40s stock? $CODI