New Ask Claude or ChatGPT about any stock, using Bullpen. Bullpen in Claude or ChatGPT. 7 days free
Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Sunday, November 15, 2026

Back to the front page

From X

@calvinblissett

Calvin Blissett on X

Passed on: - $TK: screens at net cash ≈ market cap, but that cash is TNK's. Parent cash plus its TNK stake is ~$1.01B vs a ~$1.23B market cap. Buy TNK directly. - $DFIN: ran to $68, and the SEC's semiannual-reporting proposal hits filing volume. - $RICK: NY AG indictment, CEO and CFO out. - $BAER: ~$15M of equity under ~$650M of debt and preferred. - $CMRE / $DAC: big backlogs, but contracted net earnings don't cover EV yet. - $MATW, $ACTG, $ARKR, $CVEO: FCF or leverage. - $GRND: not cheap.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

I revalued American West Metals $AWMLF after the new pre-feasibility study (PFS) for its Storm copper project in Arctic Canada, which replaced a first-pass preliminary economic assessment (PEA). At AUD$0.029, $AWMLF’s market cap is ~US$24.6M on 1,229.6M shares, with no new shares since my August write-up. Its EV is ~US$29.2M, measured as in August (US$24.6M market cap + US$8.4M Taurus royalty liability − US$3.8M of cash). In August, I valued Storm at 0.2-0.3x $AWMLF’s share of the PEA NPV after the Taurus royalty (~US$110M), for US$22-33M. The PFS already deducts the royalty, so $AWMLF’s 80% of the US$119M base case is ~US$95M, or US$19-29M on the same multiple. Today’s ~US$29.2M EV is just above the US$19-29M range, which leaves at most ~US$10M of the EV for West Desert, its zinc-indium deposit in Utah. I’m keeping the 0.2-0.3x even with a maiden reserve, since (1) the part of the build Ocean Partners’ US$40M loan doesn’t cover tripled to US$68.3M, and (2) the higher copper price holds up the NPV. At the PEA’s US$4.60/lb, $AWMLF’s share would be ~US$41M, worth just US$8-12M at the same multiple. At spot copper, the same 0.2-0.3x of $AWMLF’s ~US$186M share is US$37-56M. At AUD$0.025, the price my bull case assumes for the next placement (a stock sale to selected investors), $AWMLF’s EV would be ~0.27x its share of Storm’s NPV, within my 0.2-0.3x range. In August, my worst case was the WD26 assays (from West Desert’s 2026 drill holes) disappointing, the PFS coming back with higher capex or weaker recoveries, and the next raise pricing at a discount instead of a premium. The PFS came back with the higher capex I flagged, the next placement will almost certainly price below the AUD$0.045 of the last two, and the assays are still pending. So I’d still put the odds of losing half or more over the next 12 months at about 1/3, which from US$0.020 means US$0.010 or lower. My August bull case (Storm at 0.4-0.5x plus US$15-25M for West Desert) now requires the DFS (the next, more detailed study) to hold the PFS’s economics and the WD26 assays to confirm the visual logs. The bull case supports US$53-73M of market value. On ~1,630M shares after an AUD$10M placement at AUD$0.025, the bull case is worth US$0.033-0.045/share, down from US$0.043-0.057 in August, when I expected the next raise to price higher (~1,400M shares after the raise). So from US$0.020/share, you’re risking a US$0.010 loss (-50%) in the worst case for a US$0.013-0.025 gain (+63% to +123%) in the bull case, before any U.S. government funding for West Desert, which none of my cases counts.
@ACapitalLP 1 click

A Capital on X

On a serious note, $CODI is one of the more glaring mispricings I’ve ever seen. People can argue whether NAV is $25 or $40/share, but I’m convinced that if you liquidated the entire company tomorrow, the assets would be worth at least 2x where the stock trades today. So why does this divergence exist? And more importantly, what closes the gap? Asset sales, replacing management, simplifying the structure, eliminating the governance discount? You don’t even need the stock to trade at 100% of NAV. What gets it to 80%? And at $12/share, how much downside are you really underwriting relative to the potential upside? That’s the asymmetry that interests me. I just don’t think there’s enough eyeballs on this given the size…
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

FORT Robotics, the robot-safety maker going public through the SPAC Newbury Street II $NTWO, grew revenue 53% in the first nine months of 2026 and still ended September with $1.7M of cash. The S-4 (merger filing) out November 13 says FORT's losses and low cash "initially raised substantial doubt" about the company staying in business for the next year. Management says the doubt is gone now that existing investors committed $10.0M of new SAFEs from October 21 to November 6, and FORT drew $1.5M more on its bank loans. Operating expenses grew faster than sales, mostly from hiring and from preparing to go public. After holders redeemed 82% of the public shares on October 28, the S-4 estimates $36.0-54.2M of cash at closing after costs, including the $10.0M of SAFEs. The August investor deck showed $181.8M to FORT after costs, with no redemptions. Estimated deal costs barely moved, from $19.0M in the deck to $17.8M in the S-4, so the deal spends $0.33-0.49 on costs for every $1 FORT keeps. The price stayed the same: FORT's holders still get 50.0M shares and options at $10.00 each ($500M). Newbury's board approved the $500M price without a fairness opinion (an outside adviser's view that the price is fair), and the S-4 says the board "did not receive any financial projections of Fort Robotics." At $10.89/share, the combined company's EV is ~$582M whether or not more holders redeem, or 36.7x FORT's $15.9M of TTM revenue. At the 7.5-11.2x sales multiples I used in my September 16 deep dive, FORT needs $52-78M of revenue to justify ~$582M, 3.3-4.9x its TTM revenue. In my November 8 update, I said I'd wait for the S-4 to show what the cash would fund before considering $FROB (the post-merger ticker). FORT CEO Samuel Reeves pitched the deal's cash on the August 18 investor call for product development, a bigger sales push, and acquisitions. At $36.0-54.2M, the cash looks more like runway: ~3.6-5.5 years at the ~$9.9M/year FORT burned through September.

Investor Letters

All letters

Q3 Earnings Updates

Q3 updates cover Crocs, Entravision and Fiserv beats, coal and oil weakness, and Xerox’s sharp decline, testing the underlying cases for…

EVC $874M
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter 3 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (11/13/2026)

Tripadvisor’s CEO and CFO will depart after weak Q3 results, while Roblox’s CEO discusses AI and Berkshire repurchases $9.6 billion of…

TRIP $853M
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks

IEH Corporation: Research Note

IEH Corporation posted Q2 revenue growth of 51% to $10.7 million and a record $56 million backlog, led by defense and medical demand.

IEHC $78M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 3 clicks
OPRX · long

Optimizerx CORP

OptimizeRx, OPRX, trades 30% below its February 2025 writeup despite becoming a stronger company.

OPRX $138M
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Value Roundup

Talen’s post-bankruptcy nuclear assets, FREIT’s $22 Kushner bid and Calithera’s failed liquidation vote illustrate unusual small-cap…

FREVS $142M
Exploring with Alluvial Capital

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

130 publications

Newsletters 110

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 89 of 295

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

376 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.