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Sunday, November 15, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Elmet $ELMT, which turns tungsten into parts for U.S. missiles and jets, has raised $325.4M in 2026, including its April IPO and $200M from the U.S. Department of War (DoW), and ~$81M of cash was left after it paid for stakes in two tungsten miners in October. $124.7M bought 4.99% of Masan High-Tech Materials (UPCoM: MSR), $ELMT's longtime Vietnamese supplier, and $24.7M bought 3.5M shares, plus warrants, of Blue Moon Metals $BMM, owner of the Springer tungsten mine in Nevada. Operations used another $60.7M through October 2 ($53.1M in Q3 alone), mostly to build inventory, which more than doubled to $152.8M from $69.7M as of December 31. Counting the $124.7M set aside for Masan as cash, net cash went from the $60.5M I calculated after the DoW deal in my September 17 update to ~$0 as of October 2. At $21.99, $ELMT is 4.4% below the $23 I used in September, but its EV rose to ~$811M from $784M, mostly because of the Q3 inventory build. The DoW's remaining $250M can't arrive before March 2027, comes in at most $50M per six-month window, and each draw has to name its use and meet the DoW's conditions. $ELMT's plan for the DoW money still has more than $290M to fund: (1) $165M+ to upgrade and expand its three U.S. plants, (2) $75M for its 70% of the joint venture restarting Springer's processing plant, and (3) a $50M advance to Blue Moon against future Springer tungsten. So until the first DoW draw lands, any spending on Springer, the plant upgrades, or more inventory comes from the ~$81M of cash, $18.1M of unused credit lines, and whatever cash the business generates.
@majgeoinvesting

Maj Soueidan on X

Almost got super excited about $AEYE Q3 inflection to profitability that they reported. There’s also been some major insider buying and they’re buying back a good deal of stock. However, these fuckers use EBITDA as their adjusted EPS - a little sneaky. I’m still watching, but not nearly as excited as I was. I mean, it’s still a potential breakout because the company reported a GAAP profit for the first time in its recent history. So, you can potentially value the company on price or EV to revenue, which is looks to be around 4x, which seems about fair. EV/EBITDA is around 13x. They sells software and services that help businesses make websites accessible to people with disabilities and just launched “Agentic Audits and tools” that integrate accessibility intelligence into AI coding workflows Need to figure out where revenue has to get to in order to get to profitability on a real adjusted income basis and if analyst estimates are GAAP or adjusted EPS and not EBITDA. Shame on analysts if they’re using EBITDA. @MicrocapDr It appears that they are - looks like they’re just using the company’s adjusted EBITDA guidance.😂 lazy If you look at the GAAP history, they’ve been losing a ton of money, but the estimates (in green) are much higher. Financial matrix source: @InfoArbMonitor

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