New Ask Claude or ChatGPT about any stock, using Bullpen. Bullpen in Claude or ChatGPT. 7 days free
Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Sunday, November 15, 2026

Back to the front page

Q3 Earnings Updates

Q3 updates cover Crocs, Entravision and Fiserv beats, coal and oil weakness, and Xerox’s sharp decline, testing the underlying cases for recently featured stocks.

CROX $7.5B
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter 3 clicks

From X

@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

My thesis is very narrow. It's also no longer speculation when it shows up in reported earnings. HBM is a very large component cost in an AI server and not what I'm arguing. There's also many bottlenecks outside of memory. An obvious example is $AXTI InP substrates, where not securing enough capacity (where cost is in hundreds of millions) would trigger ceilings to competitor optical programs. And we'd likely see accelerated procurement patterns into 2027 where capacity is hard to scale.
@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

The biggest money in public markets is made when perception diverges dramatically from reality. Think of betting on sports on Kalshi/Polymarket. You’re not making a fortune betting on the #1 team to beat the #2 team. You’re making it betting on the 99-to-1 underdog when you realize the odds are completely wrong… A few situations that come to mind: - PSPs ($CIFR, $WULF, $APLD, $RIOT): Financing fears vs. the value of contracted power and development pipelines. - $TLN: PJM regulatory overhang vs. underlying FCF generation. - $FSLR: Fears of losing 45X credits vs. durable domestic manufacturing economics. What other situations fit this framework?
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Agility Robotics $AGLT, the maker of the Digit humanoid robot, now expects early access to Digit 5, its next-generation model, to begin in H1 2027. Digit 5 would reach early customers in December, President Daniel Diez told Forbes in August. In my September 6 deep dive, I called the December date the one to watch. Agility gave the new timeline in its Q3 financials, filed November 13 alongside the final 10-Q of Churchill Capital Corp XI, the SPAC it merged with on November 4. Holders of 61.5% of the SPAC's public shares redeemed them for ~$10.29/share, taking ~$261.8M out of the trust. So Agility netted ~$334.1M from the deal, plus the $100M of SAFEs it raised in July. In the S-4 (the merger filing), the no-redemption case came to ~$576M. The Q3 financials also show: → Cash: $64.9M as of September 30, down from $103.0M at the end of 2025, even after the $100M of SAFEs. → Burn: $131.6M of operating cash outflow in the first nine months, up 87% y/y, plus $6.8M of capex. → Revenue: $0.36M in the first nine months, down 79% y/y, since 2025's one-time robot sales didn't repeat. Add the deal's ~$334.1M to September 30 cash, and Agility has ~$399M. At the first nine months' pace of ~$184M/year, including capex, the ~$399M lasts a little over two years, with Digit 5's rollout now running through 2027. The closing release did add two customer updates: $GXO, the logistics company, will deploy Digit at two more U.S. sites starting in early 2027, and $AGCO, the farm equipment maker, will pilot Digit in 2027, with no order sizes given. At $7.36/share, $AGLT's market cap is ~$2.26B on ~307M shares, counting ~61.0M options and RSUs and 4.2M warrants. My deep dive valued the 1,000-robot Digit 5 order book alone at $4.69-7.66/share, at 10-20x its ~$100M of yearly revenue plus cash. Redone with the actual cash and share count, the range is closer to $4.55-7.81/share, and $AGLT now trades inside the range. $AGLT also trades 28% below the ~$10.29/share redeeming holders received, and below the ~$7.72/share the July SAFE investors paid. My deep dive said I'd only consider buying after the post-close washout, once the lock-up supply clears and Digit 5's ramp is clearer. The washout came, but the other two conditions haven't: 1) Lock-up supply: Agility's existing holders and the sponsor stay locked up until early May 2027, and the PIPE's 20.1M shares, more than the ~16M public shares left after redemptions, are being registered for resale. 2) Digit 5: Early access now starts in H1 2027 instead of December, with wider availability over the following 6-9 months.

Investor Letters

All letters

Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3B
Mispriced Assets 5 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.5B
TSOH Investment Research 4 clicks

Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $3.4B
Doomberg 5 clicks
MGRC · long

Mcgrath Rentcorp

McGrath RentCorp's conservatively financed hard assets, pricing growth and a struggling competitor, WSC, underpin the long thesis.

MGRC $3.1B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Portfolio Update April 2026

Portfolio update sells Amazon, adds Floor & Decor, and projects 6.5% annual market returns, with a base case of negative 0.89% from…

FND $5B
D Invests

April Earnings Update

Crocs raised 2026 EPS guidance to $13.20-$13.75 and bought back $73.6 million of stock, while Huntsman, Pitney Bowes and Alpha…

CROX $7.5BPBI $2.1B
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter

Floor & Decor: 1Q26 Business Update

Floor & Decor cut 2026 guidance after 1Q same-store sales fell 3.7%, while shrinking new-store formats, cutting comparable-store SG&A and…

FND $5B
Speedwell Research

GPGI Inc.

GPGI, formerly CompoSecure, is David Cote’s $4.2 billion industrial acquisition platform, managed by Resolute Holdings for 2.5% of adjusted…

GPGI $4B
Kairos Research

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

130 publications

Newsletters 110

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 88 of 295

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

376 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.