Saturday, November 14, 2026

@StableBread Oct 27 1 click

Fajasy on X

My bear, base, and bull cases value Boost Run’s $BRUN stock on year-end 2026 ARR (on the same basis as the multiples of CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN), which $BRUN will report with its Q4 results in March 2027. None of the three cases adds the $160.7M/year from the July order and Cohere, since both start in 2027. The peers’ contracts that start after 2026 aren’t in their year-end ARR either, so they’re priced into the multiples instead. Since the peers’ multiples leave out the debt they’ll take on to reach year-end ARR, I hold $BRUN’s net debt at today’s $244.3M, rather than adding the lease debt from its H2 2026 build. Each case’s value is year-end ARR times the multiple, minus the $244.3M of net debt, divided by the 88.8M fully diluted shares plus any new shares from a stock sale. I start with the $231.4M of ARR from contracts already running, then add (1) the June order’s $69.2M/year if it starts by December 31 and (2) however much of the $99.4M from contracts without disclosed terms is running by then. Bear case ($4.76, -46%) The bear case assumes $BRUN has no new financing to show by its Q3 report, lessors fund 70% of the H2 2026 build instead of 79.5% (below the 72.0% lessors funded in 2025), and the June order’s November 30 start slips into 2027, so 2026 GPU spending stays at the $1.0B low end of management’s range. That implies year-end ARR of $280M, 30% short of the target, a $62.2M stock sale at $8.89/share (7.0M new shares) to cover the funding gap and three months of 2027 payments, and today’s 2.5x, for a value of $4.76/share. I give the bear case about a 20% chance. Base case ($16.17, +82%) The base case assumes $BRUN lands new lease or asset-backed financing by year-end, starts the June order on November 30, and reaches its $400M target without selling stock. That implies $400M of year-end ARR at CoreWeave’s 4.2x, the median of the three peers, for a value of $16.17/share. I use today’s median, since the base case only solves $BRUN’s own financing problem. It assumes no relief on rates or borrowing costs, which would lift the peers’ multiples too. Bull case ($19.78, +122%) The bull case assumes everything in the base case, plus relief on rates and borrowing costs that lifts the peers’ multiples. That implies $400M of year-end ARR at 5.0x, still below Nebius’s 5.9x, for a value of $19.78/share. So the bull case is really a bet on the market, not on anything more from $BRUN. From $8.89/share, you’re risking a $4.13 loss (-46%) in the unlikely bear case for a $10.89 gain (+122%) in the more likely bull case. P.S. These cases use the October 16 close and predate $BRUN’s October 26 release, which says it has closed more than $600M of non-dilutive project financing in 2026.

@junkbondinvest Oct 27

junkbondinvestor on X

Is the great BDC consolidation wave finally here? Ares Capital is buying MidCap Financial at $10.88/share. That’s a ~30% premium to where $MFIC traded, but still only ~0.85x NAV. And that's based on a marked-down $12.86 NAV as of 9/30. $ARCC

@ACapitalLP Oct 27

A Capital on X

Also interesting given the increasing amount of M&A in the BDC sector…. See $ARCC / $MFIC today…

@StableBread Oct 26 1 click

Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN said on October 26 that it has closed "more than $600 million in non-dilutive project financing" so far in 2026. In my October 19 update, I said the stock depends less on demand than on whether $BRUN can finance the next ~$1B of GPUs without selling shares at beaten-down prices. The release also says: → $BRUN has established "a fully funded runway to accelerate customer deployments through the fourth quarter of 2026," with additional financing "proceeding as planned." → $BRUN delivered the first phase of a multi-phase project to "a leading AI research and product company," which matches its $471.7M May 2026 contract with Thinking Machines Lab (Mira Murati's AI startup). → Several more projects are "nearing hand-off in the coming weeks." → Founder and CEO Andrew Karos: "Customer payments exceed our debt payments every month." The $600M+ is YTD, and lessors funded $268.3M of new GPU leases in H1 2026 alone. So if those leases count toward the $600M+, $BRUN has closed more than $331.7M since June 30, about half to almost two-thirds of the $527-686M of new leases I estimated its H2 2026 build needs. The release doesn't say what the financing costs or how much of it closed since June 30. However, the Q3 10-Q, expected in mid-November, should disclose how much $BRUN leased in Q3 and at what rate. If the 10-Q confirms the $600M+, I'd drop the $62.2M stock sale from my bear case, and the question shifts from whether $BRUN can fund its build to what the new debt costs.

@TimyanBankAlert Oct 26

Timyan Bank Alert on X

@CorpusCol Speaking of pretty smart- These were spot on. $MNSB $SOUB $NEWT et al

@TimyanBankAlert Oct 26

Timyan Bank Alert on X

@FredCam53180687 @JustBankStocks @OurBank3 Yes, Bill is correct. I will stay too long on both though also. Mastly as a tax avoidance and salute to Joe Stilwell for his brilliant move in getting Ken to second step $NECB.

@DeepSailCapital Oct 26 2 clicks

Deep Sail Capital on X

All gaps get closed. $MAMA

@StableBread Oct 26 4 clicks

Fajasy on X

At CAD$1.98/share (October 23 close), you’re paying US$214-265M for Levack, the flagship restart project of Magna Mining $MGMNF (TSX: $NICU), or 62-76% of the enterprise value. On the 336.57M diluted count, Magna’s market cap is US$476M, and here’s how it breaks down: → Cash, incl. option proceeds: US$130M (CAD$0.54/share) → McCreedy West, the producing mine: US$28-43M (CAD$0.11-0.18/share) → Crean Hill, the permitted nickel mine: US$54-90M (CAD$0.22-0.37/share) → Levack, R2 (a high-grade zone at Levack), and the rest (implied): US$214-265M (CAD$0.89-1.10/share) For McCreedy West, I valued 3-5 years of margin, discounted at 8%. For Crean Hill, I applied 0.3-0.5x the US$179M after-tax NPV in its October 20 pre-feasibility study. To estimate how much Levack has to produce each year to justify the CAD$1.98 share price, I assumed: → Margin: US$1.85/payable lb before taxes. I started with McCreedy West’s Q2 cash margin of US$1.41/lb, subtracted US$0.42/lb of H1 sustaining capital, and added back the US$0.86/lb the precious metals stream took in Q2. CEO Jason Jessup said most of the tons in Levack’s October 7 preliminary economic assessment (PEA) would come from the contact zones, which I assume sit outside the stream, since the PEA release doesn’t say how much ore the stream covers. → Timing: 7.3 years of output starting in mid-2028, per the PEA. → Taxes: 27% of the value, the share Levack’s PEA loses to taxes. → Discount rate: 8%. On these assumptions, US$214-265M requires 32-40M payable lbs/year from Levack before restart capital (the upfront spending to rebuild and reopen the mine). The PEA’s CAD$70.1M of initial capital adds ~7.5M lbs/year to the requirement, but pre-commercial cash flow and tax credits cut the net funding need to CAD$8.6M, or ~1M lbs/year. Jessup had said Levack could produce 2-3x McCreedy West’s output. The PEA plans 36.8M payable lbs/year from mid-2028 to 2035, ~2.2x McCreedy West’s 17M lbs guidance midpoint. So at Q2 margins, CAD$1.98 assumes close to the PEA’s output, which leaves out R2. But 2.1M of the PEA’s 5.75M short tons are inferred resources (from more widely spaced holes), so over a third of the plan rests on less certain tonnes. However, a 10% higher realized price adds US$0.60/lb to the margin and cuts the requirement to 24-30M lbs/year, well below the PEA’s 36.8M. Since Q2, copper is up 8.3% from Magna’s average ($6.54/lb vs. $6.04), while nickel is down 13.5% ($7.12 vs. $8.23). Nickel is 46.0% of the PEA’s revenue and copper 34.8%, so for Levack, nickel’s drop outweighs copper’s gain. In other words, higher copper prices alone won’t lower what Levack has to deliver. Nickel has to recover too.