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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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Q3 Earnings Updates

Q3 updates cover Crocs, Entravision and Fiserv beats, coal and oil weakness, and Xerox’s sharp decline, testing the underlying cases for recently featured stocks.

CROX $7.5B
Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter 1 click

From X

@calvinblissett 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

$TTAM: Stan Druckenmiller and Chris Hohn long concrete. Titan America is a vertically integrated East Coast cement/building-materials platform with leading positions in Florida (~31%), Virginia/North Carolina (~30%) and Metro New York (~24%). Its moat is physical: scarce permitted cement capacity, quarries, marine terminals, rail, ready-mix and downstream distribution. The business generated $1.66B of revenue and $390M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025, and 2025 ROCE was 19.5%. The major change in 2026 is Keystone. Titan closed the $310M acquisition in May, adding 990K tons of clinker capacity and >50 years of mineral reserves. Keystone contributed ~$20M of Q2 revenue; Titan is targeting ≥$30M of annual run-rate synergies by 2029. Mid-Atlantic Q2 revenue/EBITDA rose 27%/30%, partly driven by Keystone, while Florida EBITDA fell 19% because of Pennsuco maintenance and import-logistics disruptions. The construction backdrop is softer than the old table suggested: U.S. construction spending was down 3.8% YoY in July 2026, and ACA expects cement consumption to fall 2.5% in 2026 before turning positive in 2027. The bright spots are data centers and infrastructure: July 2026 AIA consensus calls for data-center construction growth of 33% in 2026 and 24.7% in 2027, while nonresidential overall is -0.3% / +3.0%. At $13.85 on September 25, TTAM has ~$2.55B of market cap and ~$3.09B of EV against $393.7M of TTM adjusted EBITDA, or ~7.9x EV/EBITDA. A reference peer group is around ~12.4x. Your replacement-cost framework of ~$4.2B ex-logistics therefore equates to ~$1.1B above current EV; after net debt, roughly ~$3.7B of equity value versus ~$2.6B today. The key debate is no longer whether Keystone is cheap on capacity—it is whether Titan can actually turn that capacity into normalized EBITDA through utilization, pricing and network synergies.

Investor Letters

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Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3B
Mispriced Assets 5 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.5B
TSOH Investment Research 4 clicks

Cat-Scratch Fervo

Fervo Energy raised $2 billion in its May IPO, then fell nearly 70% below issue price after a Morpheus short report, despite targeting 1 GW…

FRVO $3.4B
Doomberg 5 clicks
MONOY · long

Monotaro CO LTD

MonotaRO, traded as MONOY in the U.S. and 3064 in Japan, is a Japanese MRO distributor recommended as a long.

MONOY $7.3B
Value Investors Club 1 click

The AutoNation Story

AutoNation shed rentals and megastores, focused on dealerships, and retired 91.1% of its shares through buybacks after its 1990s roll-up…

AN $5.7B
Cannibal Stocks 4 clicks

No title

SpaceX’s $24 billion Starbase power plant, Microsoft’s Oracle capacity cuts, Riot’s $72 billion AI lease and Quanta’s sell-off frame…

RIOT $6.6B
Monte Independent Investment Research 3 clicks

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