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Saturday, November 14, 2026

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@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

Moves like this $ADIG should not happen absent some genuinely unforeseen event or force majeure. If a public company is even remotely transparent with investors, expectations shouldn’t be so far removed from reality that a single earnings report wipes out 40–50% of its market cap. Granted, this is probably more common in smaller companies with limited analyst coverage, but if I were a public company CEO and this happened on my watch, I’d consider it a serious failure of investor communication and expectation management…
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Reviva Pharmaceuticals $RVPH now plans to apply to relist on Nasdaq in H1 2027, and its December 18 annual meeting asks shareholders to approve a reverse split of up to 1-for-100 to get there, nine months after its last one. Nasdaq suspended $RVPH on May 14 for trading below its $1.00 minimum bid price, and the stock has traded on the OTC since. At $0.35/share, $RVPH's market cap is ~$4.6M against $17.5M of cash as of September 30, or ~26% of its ~$1.33/share of cash. In my August 20 update, I wrote that steady ATM dilution looked paused, since Reviva said it doesn't expect to use its $50M ATM (selling new shares straight into the market) while it's quoted on the OTC. $RVPH's Q3 10-Q, filed November 13, says the same, and adds that the shelf registration behind the ATM expires February 13, 2027. And a company Reviva's size (under $75M of public float) needs an exchange listing to file a new shelf. RECOVER-2, the second Phase 3 trial of Reviva's schizophrenia drug brilaroxazine, plus the approval filing will cost $50-55M, CEO Laxminarayan Bhat said on an April fireside chat, about 3x Reviva's cash. The 10-Q says Reviva has no committed external sources of capital, and the Q3 earnings release still lists partnering as "pursuing partnership opportunities." So I read the reverse split and the relisting as the end of the pause in dilution: Back on Nasdaq, Reviva could sell stock again, through a new shelf or a public offering, to cover most of the $50-55M before RECOVER-2 starts. Cash fell $2.4M in Q3, and Reviva still says the $17.5M covers outlays "into the third quarter of 2027," close to the "into July 2027" it gave in August. The U.S. patent office also granted Track One priority examination to the patent application on a new formulation of brilaroxazine, which could extend the drug's protection to 2046. Track One aims for a final decision within ~12 months, and the decision can be a rejection.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

108.4m @ 25.2g/t indium from drill hole WD26-01 is still the best assayed result of 2026 at American West Metals’ $AWMLF West Desert zinc-indium deposit in Utah. At West Desert, $AWMLF has finished five more holes (WD26-04 to WD26-08) since my August write-up. WD26-07, the westernmost so far, hit a combined 140m of visual copper and zinc sulfides and 219m of visual molybdenite, while WD26-05 and WD26-06 hit visual zinc, molybdenite, and copper oxides. Those are geologists’ visual estimates, and the October 30 quarterly report expected assays for WD26-06 and WD26-07 within 1-2 weeks, and for WD26-08 within 4-6 weeks. I found no assays for WD26-03 in $AWMLF’s releases through November 9, even though the July 31 quarterly expected them within weeks. So the 2026 program’s assayed results are still the June and July ones. $AWMLF also hired GreenMet, a Washington advisory group led by former U.S. critical minerals official Drew Horn, to pursue U.S. government funding and offtake (the right to buy its output) for West Desert. GreenMet is $AWMLF’s second Washington advisor in 2026, after Ervin Graves Strategy Group in February, and the company still hasn’t disclosed any U.S. government funding. Meanwhile, the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), which buys for the U.S. stockpile, cancelled its July request for 400+ tonnes of indium on September 30 without an award, since traders said the request was more than the market could supply. So the stockpile’s indium purchase is off for now, and the failed request showed how thin supply is outside China (~400 tonnes/year, by one trader’s estimate). Thin supply is still the argument for funding a U.S. source like West Desert, but no agency has funded one yet. Metallurgical samples from West Desert’s historical waste dumps, one of the two extra sources of metal I flagged in August, have been shipped for test work, with no results yet. So I still don’t attach any value to West Desert in my base case. Its value in my bull case depends on the WD26-06 and WD26-07 assays confirming what geologists logged in the core.

Investor Letters

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The Spy Who Shagged The Market

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AIG $43B
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Is Nebius Fucked?

Nebius’ Q3 beat relied on $325 million of one-off partnership fees as it raised 2027 CapEx to $40–45 billion and may need $6–11 billion of…

NBIS $32B
Daniel Romero 6 clicks
BTU · long

Peabody Energy Corporation

Peabody Energy, ticker BTU, is a low-cost producer of thermal and metallurgical coal with mines in the United States and Australia.

BTU $2.1B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks
BE 2026-08-29

Bloom Energy: 5 Links That Cannot Break

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