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Friday, November 13, 2026

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TSOH Weekly Roundup (11/13/2026)

Tripadvisor’s CEO and CFO will depart after weak Q3 results, while Roblox’s CEO discusses AI and Berkshire repurchases $9.6 billion of stock.

TRIP $855M
TSOH Investment Research

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Storm, American West Metals’ $AWMLF copper project in Arctic Canada, can only receive fuel and equipment during the August-September shipping window each year. $AWMLF plans to file its final mining application with the Nunavut Impact Review Board (NIRB), the territory’s environmental review agency, in Q4 2026, after the Nunavut Planning Commission approved the project description. The full review typically takes ~3 years, and the company has been working with regulators for over 12 months. $AWMLF targets a final investment decision (FID) in early 2028, pre-development in H2 2028, construction in 2029-2030, and first copper in 2030. To start pre-development before the full review ends, $AWMLF plans to ask NIRB for an exception covering limited early works, such as fuel storage, the transport corridor, and a construction camp. The schedule in its pre-feasibility study (PFS) runs the NIRB review and environmental assessment through the end of 2028, in line with the ~3 years the PFS calls typical, and ends ~6 months before the Q3 2029 shipping season, when infrastructure construction starts. If the review runs past mid-2029, construction could slip a full year, since fuel and equipment only arrive during the August-September shipping window. Part of the review will also run through the April 1, 2027 handover of land and resource management from Canada’s federal government to Nunavut’s government, although NIRB keeps reviewing projects after the handover. So I treat 2030 as the earliest year for first copper, not the base case. Each year of delay would take ~US$8M off the US$119M NPV at a 7% discount rate.
@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN shows $218.6M of new GPU leases in Q3, and its September 30 lease schedule still implies a ~7% interest rate, the same as the June 30 schedule implied. $BRUN had to put $96.0M of its own cash up front on two of the three GPU leases it signed in Q3: → 36-month lease: $59.2M advance, then $2.7M/month. → 24-month lease: $36.8M first payment, then $4.3M/month. For reference, the $59.2M advance alone is more than the $39.4M of advances across all 34 GPU leases $BRUN signed in H1 2026. In Q3, $88.2M of warrant exercises covered most of the $109.8M of lease principal $BRUN paid, and cash still rose $36.9M to $170.0M ($157.0M unrestricted). All 11.4M warrants are now exercised, and GPU lease payments due from January to December 2027 rose to $186.2M as of September 30, from $103.5M as of June 30. The two big Q3 leases alone add $6.9M/month of payments in 2027. The ~$221M of 2027 payments I counted across $BRUN's signed commitments in my October 19 update is now ~$307M, before the five equipment leases $BRUN signed in October, which require $83.1M of payments over the next two years. Four of those five are six-month leases that end with $39.6M of final payments, 59.8% of their $66.2M of total payments. Against those payments, $BRUN says $482M of customer prepayments are due as upcoming projects deploy. So 2027 now runs on (1) those prepayments arriving on schedule and (2) monthly billings, since the warrant cash won't repeat.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

American West Metals $AWMLF had just ~1.6 quarters of cash left as of September 30 to fund Storm, its copper project in Arctic Canada. Its spending starts with the 2027 program of resource and geotechnical drilling, metallurgical test work, final engineering, and a sealift of fuel and supplies. Cash was AUD$5.45M (~US$3.8M) as of September 30, 1.58 quarters of funding at the September quarter’s AUD$3.45M operating outflow. Management expects spending to fall and isn’t planning a raise, but with the definitive feasibility study (DFS) still ahead, I’d expect a placement (a stock sale to selected investors) within the next two quarters. At AUD$0.029, a placement would price at least 35.6% below the AUD$0.045 of the last two, in October 2025 and May 2026. One the size of May’s (AUD$10M) at AUD$0.025, 13.8% below today’s price, would add 400M shares, 32.5% of the 1,229.6M count. The 371M listed options, struck at AUD$0.06 and expiring August 18, 2027, would bring in AUD$22.3M if exercised, but the stock would have to more than double first. Taurus Mining Royalty Fund, which bought a royalty on Storm, only pays its final US$4M (US$3.2M for $AWMLF’s 80%) once the resource reaches 400,000t of copper at 1.00% or better. Storm’s resource is unchanged at 276,000t, so reaching the milestone takes ~124,000t more, and the exploration target won’t count until drilling turns part of it into a resource. So a ~US$25M company has to fund ~US$55M of Storm’s build, and before that, pay for the DFS, most likely with placements priced below the last two.

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