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Friday, November 13, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $778M
The Value Road 4 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN shows $218.6M of new GPU leases in Q3, and its September 30 lease schedule still implies a ~7% interest rate, the same as the June 30 schedule implied. $BRUN had to put $96.0M of its own cash up front on two of the three GPU leases it signed in Q3: → 36-month lease: $59.2M advance, then $2.7M/month. → 24-month lease: $36.8M first payment, then $4.3M/month. For reference, the $59.2M advance alone is more than the $39.4M of advances across all 34 GPU leases $BRUN signed in H1 2026. In Q3, $88.2M of warrant exercises covered most of the $109.8M of lease principal $BRUN paid, and cash still rose $36.9M to $170.0M ($157.0M unrestricted). All 11.4M warrants are now exercised, and GPU lease payments due from January to December 2027 rose to $186.2M as of September 30, from $103.5M as of June 30. The two big Q3 leases alone add $6.9M/month of payments in 2027. The ~$221M of 2027 payments I counted across $BRUN's signed commitments in my October 19 update is now ~$307M, before the five equipment leases $BRUN signed in October, which require $83.1M of payments over the next two years. Four of those five are six-month leases that end with $39.6M of final payments, 59.8% of their $66.2M of total payments. Against those payments, $BRUN says $482M of customer prepayments are due as upcoming projects deploy. So 2027 now runs on (1) those prepayments arriving on schedule and (2) monthly billings, since the warrant cash won't repeat.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

American West Metals $AWMLF had just ~1.6 quarters of cash left as of September 30 to fund Storm, its copper project in Arctic Canada. Its spending starts with the 2027 program of resource and geotechnical drilling, metallurgical test work, final engineering, and a sealift of fuel and supplies. Cash was AUD$5.45M (~US$3.8M) as of September 30, 1.58 quarters of funding at the September quarter’s AUD$3.45M operating outflow. Management expects spending to fall and isn’t planning a raise, but with the definitive feasibility study (DFS) still ahead, I’d expect a placement (a stock sale to selected investors) within the next two quarters. At AUD$0.029, a placement would price at least 35.6% below the AUD$0.045 of the last two, in October 2025 and May 2026. One the size of May’s (AUD$10M) at AUD$0.025, 13.8% below today’s price, would add 400M shares, 32.5% of the 1,229.6M count. The 371M listed options, struck at AUD$0.06 and expiring August 18, 2027, would bring in AUD$22.3M if exercised, but the stock would have to more than double first. Taurus Mining Royalty Fund, which bought a royalty on Storm, only pays its final US$4M (US$3.2M for $AWMLF’s 80%) once the resource reaches 400,000t of copper at 1.00% or better. Storm’s resource is unchanged at 276,000t, so reaching the milestone takes ~124,000t more, and the exploration target won’t count until drilling turns part of it into a resource. So a ~US$25M company has to fund ~US$55M of Storm’s build, and before that, pay for the DFS, most likely with placements priced below the last two.

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IEH Corporation: Research Note

IEH Corporation posted Q2 revenue growth of 51% to $10.7 million and a record $56 million backlog, led by defense and medical demand.

IEHC $78M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 1 click

💥Tead-ering💥

Teads’ revenue fell 26% and its stock dropped 38% as Google AI summaries cut publisher referral traffic, worsening losses and straining its…

TEAD $18MGUTS $11M
PETITION 2 clicks
SEER · long

Seer INC

SEER Inc became a founder-offer special situation just before publication.

SEER $89M
Value Investors Club

The Priority Technology Situation

Priority Technology received an opportunistic buyout proposal, with its business better suited to remaining public absent a much higher…

PRTH $653M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 5 clicks

(MGGA) Make Guns Great Again

Ruger trades at a $468 million enterprise value, about 7 times normalized free cash flow, with $101 million cash and no debt as gun demand…

RGR $790M
XIX Value

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