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Friday, November 13, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $778M
The Value Road 4 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN granted 6.23M RSUs in Q3, 7.4% of its 84.2M shares outstanding, and will expense $103.4M for them over a weighted-average 3 years, a cost its adjusted EBITDA excludes. The 6.23M includes the 4.59M granted to the CFO, CTO, and COO on September 29, and the 10-Q doesn't name who got the other 1.64M. Q3's stock comp was only $0.25M, since most of the RSUs came on September 29. $BRUN's adjusted EBITDA adds stock comp back, so from Q4 it will exclude ~$8.6M/quarter of RSU expense on average, equal to 47.9% of Q3's $18.0M of adjusted EBITDA. And $BRUN's 2026 equity plan still has 2,986,298 shares left to grant, another 3.5% of the shares outstanding. The bear, base, and bull cases in my October 19 update counted 88.8M fully diluted shares, including only the executives' 4.59M RSUs. The full 6.23M takes the count to 90.4M, which trims each case's per-share value by 1.8%.

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Lion Copper: Initiation Report

Lion Copper targets 2030 Nevada copper production at Yerington, with Rio Tinto’s Nuton funding its 2027 feasibility study under a 65%…

LCU $71M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 4 clicks

Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office…

XRN $391M
Orphan REITs 3 clicks
FINV · long

Finvolution Group

FinVolution, a China and ASEAN unsecured consumer lender, trades at 4x earnings and 0.5x book value.

FINV $642M
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

ContextLogic

ContextLogic’s US Salt holds about 23% of the US and Canadian pharmaceutical-grade salt market, one of only two suppliers, supporting…

LOGC $618M
Kairos Research

Jumia

Jumia’s January 2028 $7/$15 call spread risks $1.15 for up to $6.85 if cost cuts and marketplace growth deliver adjusted EBITDA and…

JMIA $752M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 13 clicks

Performance Review: H1 2026

REIT holdings outperformed in H1 2026, with Veris Residential sold in a $19-per-share take-private and FrontView REIT trimmed after a 78%…

FVR $600MNLOP $142M
Real Assets, Real Value 1 click

Stock Trade Compilation Diez

E.W. Scripps, Team Internet, Monro, doValue and Inter & Co feature as special-situation trades involving mergers, asset sales, leverage and…

SSP $337MMNRO $324M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 9 clicks

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