Friday, November 13, 2026

Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $778M

The Value Road 24h ago 4 clicks

22h ago COUR $930M

This Week in Special Situations: Coursera, eToro, Fluor, Trade Desk

Latticework by MOI Global 6 clicks

45h ago GRPN $513M

Quick note on LSAK and GRPN

Mispriced Assets 5 clicks

From X

@StableBread 14m ago

Fajasy on X

Read the 10-Q on the Q3 leases here: Here's my October 19 update on $BRUN (you can read most of it for free):

@StableBread 14m ago

Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN shows $218.6M of new GPU leases in Q3, and its September 30 lease schedule still implies a ~7% interest rate, the same as the June 30 schedule implied. $BRUN had to put $96.0M of its own cash up front on two of the three GPU leases it signed in Q3: → 36-month lease: $59.2M advance, then $2.7M/month. → 24-month lease: $36.8M first payment, then $4.3M/month. For reference, the $59.2M advance alone is more than the $39.4M of advances across all 34 GPU leases $BRUN signed in H1 2026. In Q3, $88.2M of warrant exercises covered most of the $109.8M of lease principal $BRUN paid, and cash still rose $36.9M to $170.0M ($157.0M unrestricted). All 11.4M warrants are now exercised, and GPU lease payments due from January to December 2027 rose to $186.2M as of September 30, from $103.5M as of June 30. The two big Q3 leases alone add $6.9M/month of payments in 2027. The ~$221M of 2027 payments I counted across $BRUN's signed commitments in my October 19 update is now ~$307M, before the five equipment leases $BRUN signed in October, which require $83.1M of payments over the next two years. Four of those five are six-month leases that end with $39.6M of final payments, 59.8% of their $66.2M of total payments. Against those payments, $BRUN says $482M of customer prepayments are due as upcoming projects deploy. So 2027 now runs on (1) those prepayments arriving on schedule and (2) monthly billings, since the warrant cash won't repeat.

@BarbarianCap 15h ago

Barbarian Capital on X

Once Upon a Farm Slashes Outlook Following ‘Tractor Wheels’ Recall $OFRM

@StableBread 15h ago

Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN granted 6.23M RSUs in Q3, 7.4% of its 84.2M shares outstanding, and will expense $103.4M for them over a weighted-average 3 years, a cost its adjusted EBITDA excludes. The 6.23M includes the 4.59M granted to the CFO, CTO, and COO on September 29, and the 10-Q doesn't name who got the other 1.64M. Q3's stock comp was only $0.25M, since most of the RSUs came on September 29. $BRUN's adjusted EBITDA adds stock comp back, so from Q4 it will exclude ~$8.6M/quarter of RSU expense on average, equal to 47.9% of Q3's $18.0M of adjusted EBITDA. And $BRUN's 2026 equity plan still has 2,986,298 shares left to grant, another 3.5% of the shares outstanding. The bear, base, and bull cases in my October 19 update counted 88.8M fully diluted shares, including only the executives' 4.59M RSUs. The full 6.23M takes the count to 90.4M, which trims each case's per-share value by 1.8%.

@calvinblissett 16h ago

Calvin Blissett on X

@SteinHajek $YB has been ready for AI and using it since 2019 I believe is the year. Leveraging it nicely today

@stockgutter 18h ago

SG on X

With midterms, I thought we would see a blowout quarter from $NMAX. What a crap business.

@StableBread 20h ago

Fajasy on X

See the $486.9M of new GPU leases in the 10-Q here: Here's my October 19 update on $BRUN (you can read most of it for free):

@StableBread 20h ago

Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN just pushed $12.7M/month of revenue from a project at a Georgia data center into Q1 2027, which implies year-end ARR of $283-291M instead of the $400M it expected in August! CFO Erik Guckel said on the Q3 call that $BRUN would've reached $435M of ARR by year-end 2026 without the delay. CEO Andrew Karos blamed a city council request that paused progress at the site, now resolved, and said the project is worth $144-152M of ARR. Q3 revenue came in at $39.9M, up from $31.1M in Q2 but 23.6% below the $52.2M that a straight-line climb to $400M of ARR implied. Year-end ARR would then land right around the $280M in the bear case of my October 19 update. That bear case also had a $62.2M stock sale assumption, which I said on October 26 I'd drop if the 10-Q confirmed $BRUN's $600M+ of project financing. The 10-Q backs up most of the $600M+: $486.9M of new GPU leases through September 30, plus five equipment leases signed in October that require $83.1M of payments. So I'm dropping that stock sale risk, which lifts the bear case to $5.04/share after counting all 6.23M RSUs granted in Q3. At ~$6.20/share, $BRUN trades 23.0% above that bear case. TCV stands at $2.7B, up $800M from Q2, and the 10-Q adds that the agreements signed in September alone are worth more than $700M. Still, the Q3 deck $BRUN released on November 12 says TCV includes renewal options and LOIs, without saying how much of the $2.7B they make up. So I read the miss as timing, not demand: If the Georgia project is billing by March 31, 2027, ARR would clear the $400M in my base case a quarter later than I assumed. The other date to watch is November 30, when the 240 GPU servers from the order $BRUN signed in June are scheduled to start.