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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Root’s $ROOT policy count has barely moved since June, so I looked at the two levers the car insurer is counting on to grow again. $ROOT began rolling out its new pricing model in Q4, which it expects to be its biggest jump in predictive power yet. CEO Alex Timm said it should lower average premiums by “maybe a couple of points” while “meaningfully increasing conversion,” and the rollout runs through H1 2027. $ROOT also entered New Jersey in July and then Wyoming, bringing it to 38 states, and targets being near national by the end of 2027, with the larger new states coming last. Timm said New Jersey was Root’s most successful state launch yet in new business per capita. Both levers make sense, but neither shows up in the numbers this year. The new pricing model only grows premiums if the extra conversion and retention outweigh the lower prices, and the states Root hasn’t entered yet cover just ~18% of the U.S. population. So I’d expect policies to stay roughly flat until the rollout finishes in mid-2027.
@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Yeah, if you're focused on some sort of biofuel or energy play - $GPRE is almost certainly the best play from this point on. $ANDE just paid 4.25x ethanol assets that are very similar to what GPRE has. GPRE likely $30 if not $40+ by end of 2027 especially with higher likelihood of year-round E15 getting passed and with CA E15 beginning 1/1/2027. Plus GPRE spoke on call that they're likely buying back shares from this point on. By end of Q4 GPRE will be in a net cash position, including unmonetized 45Z credits, and is trading at like 3x 2027 EBITDA.
@leevalueroach 1 click

Lee Roach on X

The market's greatest gift this year to me was when $EVC posted a killer Q2 and the market sold it off as a dying radio company. It allowed me to buy even more when the piggies were panicking. Volatility is the greatest gift to active fundamental investors. People's brains have been fried from constant dopamine releases from social media and need instant gratification. No one can hold a business for the long term anymore. If you can, that is your competitive edge.

Investor Letters

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The 10-Q Fills In the Buyback

Empire State Realty Trust bought $86.1 million of stock through November 6, while corrected sum-of-the-parts values range from $9.12 to…

ESRT $877M
Orphan REITs 2 clicks

Seed Corn

Chiron’s failed $49 million Beaumont sale and $178 million Pinnacle acquisition leave XRN with $70 million of liquidity and medical-office…

XRN $357M
Orphan REITs 3 clicks

Post Q3 EVC Update

EVC's Q3 update cites $30 million for a single station, a broadcast-business sale and stronger positioning for 2027.

EVC $920M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 26 clicks

Entravision Q3 Update

Entravision’s Q3 ad-tech revenue reached $177.2 million, up 133% year over year, while total revenue rose 88% to $226.3 million and diluted…

EVC $920M
The Value Road 4 clicks

GREAT DEC-TECTIVE WORK

Diversified Energy reported $255.6 million of “true” nine-month free cash flow, while its $1.8 billion Birch acquisition would shift…

DEC $972M
The Oak Bloke 4 clicks
NGVC · long

Natural Grocers Vitamin Ctge

Natural Grocers (NGVC) returned to $27.80 after a prior long entry at $21 and exit recommendation at $46.

NGVC $677M
Value Investors Club

Verra veerer

Verra Mobility’s Avis termination threatens 2027 earnings, while Government Solutions profit rose 25% and implied fourth-quarter guidance…

VRRM $313M
The Oak Bloke 3 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/30/2026)

Markel spent $315 million repurchasing shares in Q3 as Thrive agreed to buy ADT for $7.6 billion and Hasbro cited rising adult toy demand.

BBW $353M
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

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