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Thursday, November 12, 2026

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Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis

DoubleU Games raised its all-cash tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive minority holders to $16.25 per ADS from $11.25 after net cash made the earlier bid untenable.

DDI $779M
The Value Road 2 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN just pushed $12.7M/month of revenue from a project at a Georgia data center into Q1 2027, which implies year-end ARR of $283-291M instead of the $400M it expected in August! CFO Erik Guckel said on the Q3 call that $BRUN would've reached $435M of ARR by year-end 2026 without the delay. CEO Andrew Karos blamed a city council request that paused progress at the site, now resolved, and said the project is worth $144-152M of ARR. Q3 revenue came in at $39.9M, up from $31.1M in Q2 but 23.6% below the $52.2M that a straight-line climb to $400M of ARR implied. Year-end ARR would then land right around the $280M in the bear case of my October 19 update. That bear case also had a $62.2M stock sale assumption, which I said on October 26 I'd drop if the 10-Q confirmed $BRUN's $600M+ of project financing. The 10-Q backs up most of the $600M+: $486.9M of new GPU leases through September 30, plus five equipment leases signed in October that require $83.1M of payments. So I'm dropping that stock sale risk, which lifts the bear case to $5.04/share after counting all 6.23M RSUs granted in Q3. At ~$6.20/share, $BRUN trades 23.0% above that bear case. TCV stands at $2.7B, up $800M from Q2, and the 10-Q adds that the agreements signed in September alone are worth more than $700M. Still, the Q3 deck $BRUN released on November 12 says TCV includes renewal options and LOIs, without saying how much of the $2.7B they make up. So I read the miss as timing, not demand: If the Georgia project is billing by March 31, 2027, ARR would clear the $400M in my base case a quarter later than I assumed. The other date to watch is November 30, when the 240 GPU servers from the order $BRUN signed in June are scheduled to start.
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

$EVLV I don't look at gross profit only, i look at profit to shareholders after all maintenance expenses like SBC and also capital required to grow the business. I will probably make enemies because of this hardline. On that metric the business is losing money and you'd think by now at their (9k locations?) scale they'd be a lot more profitable. Understanding how much a company currently generates in profits should be simple to understand and not require elaborate gymnastics
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

ARR growth rate is stable finally, but what about their profitability? Think about how easy it is to game ARR and how many company's did successfully before collapsing. not sure it will happen to $evlv, but it does provide a warning to over relying on company derived KPIs, especially if that company has had a history of changing metrics, changing managements, and being successfully sued for providing inaccurate marketing material. Profitability is not improving and that is not a good sign for their LT goal you can be a company that grows revenues and expands margins, you can be a company that grows revenues but contracts margins, you can be a company that grows margins but contracts revenues. you can be a company that loses revenues and margins at the same time. which one is evolv $evlv bulls will argue that we should wait for another quarter or two before we see an inflection in profits. that eventually they will scale into their business. i'm afraid to say that i'm suspicious that profits will materialize in any meaningful way ever. if the technology was so transformative and so much better than competitors, and that they have thousands and thousands of customers already, then why is it still losing money?
@leevalueroach 1 click

Lee Roach on X

Only twenty minutes until the greatest media company in the world, Saga Communications $SGA, has their Q3 earnings call. Can’t wait to hear a stupid and pointless story about how Mr. Forgy bought a footlong hotdog and shoved it down his throat back in 1983 while listening to the radio in his car that peels down some Ohio shithole road. Listen guys, Saga is the greatest media company in the world. They sell gift cards and banner ads on Wordpress HTMl websites (digital media). Everyone listens to the radio you know? It’s like 95% of the population listens to the radio. Greatest media company in the world folks. Get ready for the earnings call. This company is a monster.

Investor Letters

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Big Short: Fidelity & Guaranty

F&G’s main insurer held $66.5 billion of assets against $1.38 billion of statutory capital, while private credit, reinsurance dependence…

FG $3.2B
Mispriced Assets 2 clicks

Peloton: Beyond The Bike

Peloton’s connected-fitness subscribers fell 9% year over year to 2.475 million, with another high-single-digit holiday decline forecast as…

PTON $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 3 clicks
TPLKF · long

PVA Tepla

PVA TePla (XTRA:TPE) is presented as a long position.

TPLKF $637M
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

GAMCO Investors, Inc. - GAMI

GAMCO Investors trades OTC at a $550 million market cap, with $150 million in excess cash and a 5.2-5.7x operating-income valuation despite…

GAMI $537M
Exploring with Alluvial Capital

RH - the Universe Intervenes?

RH’s debt-funded luxury expansion faces weakening demand, deeper member discounts and a balance sheet strained by $2.4 billion of net debt.

RH $2.6B
Brevarthan Research 1 click

Acuren Q2 Earnings review

Acuren's Q2 revenue rose 1.5% to $313.9 million before its NV5 merger; post-close selling drove TIC down 21% as management targets $20…

TIC $2.5B
Kairos Research

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